BITCOIN - 7 Failed Attempts To Break The Support Area!

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hello followers and other TradingView users!

We have been in this consolidation phase a little bit over 6 days. Currently, the price has drawn to us a "Triangle" pattern and we have a down channel where the price moves downwards.

Yesterday we got a small sign that the price may come down and test the lower levels, it made a downwards breakout from the Triangle which is a bearish sign and also we got a retest the Triangle trendline which is almost like a textbook example, but currently, on the four-hour chart, we could see that there is a very strong level - $6250.
The price has tried to break this seven times and all those attempts were unsuccessful and it bounced back above the mentioned level. So, basically, we have a sign that we may go downwards from triangle breakout, and now, if we get a close below the $6250 then this could mean that there is a very high probability to go test the lower levels! A small sign comes also from ALTS, they are on the 'red side' and many altcoins approaching the 2018 low levels!

If we start to drop then the first support is around the $6000 where the round number and the down channel bottom trendline makes a crossing area + there is also the major counter trendline which is pulled from 24. June low to 14. August low and it could start to work as a support!
I think we may go and test the lower levels, the Triangle breakout pattern shows us that the target would be almost exactly on the 2018 low point at $5755! There we can watch what the price action shows to us and decide what we can do for next but firstly we have to break the $6250 and we need at least 4h candle close below this level!

Hopefully, this quick overview helps You out a little bit to confirm Your own analysis!
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Have a nice day!
Comment: 8. ATTEMPT was successful and we break below the $6250 support. The volume is a bit low and we needed a close inside this red box but still another bearish confirmation is on the table!

Comment: That was fast - the possible leg down has started!
Comment: If we look at the 1h chart then the last hour ended with the "dragonfly doji" which will indicate that currently, the bearish momentum is gone. Buyers reacted quickly after the 4h candle break below the $6250 but we have to wait what the 4h candle starts to show us because 1h candles have closed previously below the $6250 level but not the 4h so, let's wait and watch the price action!

Comment: We got another 4h candle close below the $6250 but we needed it a bit lower and the volume is pretty low.
In the 15 min. timeframe, again, soon we could see a movement because the price is pushed together into the tight range. Signs will tell that we could see a move downwards but be very careful maybe the market wants to think differently! ;)

Comment: Currently, the volume is rising, we have a breakout from the smaller triangle and we could go to the retest area (red box)!
There meet two trendlines previous counter up-trendline and the main channel trendline! IF it breaks upwards from the mentioned box then it would be a little price structure change because there we make an HH on the 15 min. chart!

Comment: Yesterday, I said that we have seven failed attempts to break below the $6250 level and after I post it, the eight attempt was successful but with a very low volume and the close wasn't in our mentioned "red box", after some signs I said: "the last hour ended with the "dragonfly doji" which will indicate that currently, the bearish momentum is gone."
The buyers were alert because each bigger selling attempt was pushed quickly back upwards. So, this action drew for us a smaller Triangle and we made a breakout upwards from it with a nice volume inside the candles. We didn't get a bounce from the trendlines crossing area and slowly we made a breakout from the channel and slowly we made a short-term higher high.

Currently, we are back above the counter trendline (pulled from 08 Sep.) but below the April low and below the round number $6500. These orange price zones are strong resistances and at the moment we got a bounce from the April low and from the lower orange resistance area. The small throwback will guide us to the counter trendline and there we have to watch what the price action wants to tell and show us but currently, looks like the price shows some bullish strength and momentum and we may go higher than $6500 but the candle which guides us through these levels have to be full of volume!

I am seeking advice on my ideas below from traders in various countries. I would like to ask your advice.
And what do you think about the CBOE's ETF at the end of September and the BAKKT Exchange launching in November?

Thank you Vaido for your input. We also remain bearish on the longer term but can't ignore a possible pull back wave if the 6,100 support holds. As such we have updated our outlook incorporating this potential 0.5000 Fibonacci Retracement to 6,750 - 6,800. Overall though we remain bearish:

+1 Reply
Agreed, also looking bullish in the short term. Will hold out for now and see how it develops.
whops... seem like this TA is invalidated. You can never-ever predict BTC market moves.
+2 Reply
mariusmuziks Bateman76
@Bateman76, In fact he is quite good at it. Off course it hits hard who try to follow blindly someone who posts TA. My advice to you is learn to trade yourself. These guys only sharing there opinions, not necessarily you have to agree all the time. I don't know anyone who would hit 100% in the market. It's about money managament and levels.
Actually we broke upward from the triangle
No no
It broke out instead, now what? whoever traded on your call is getting rekt now!
+4 Reply
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