Hello crypto friends,
Many of you have probably seen well known "Psychology of market cycle" chart where the disbelief stage precedes a new cycle. In that case many investors usually say "This is a suckers rally". Let's figure it out.
Analyzing Bitcoin's sentiment in last months I see fear, greed and disbelief. Retail investors are hesitating to buy BTC waiting for a final capitulation to 3K or even to 1K. But we might never see these prices again. Big investors are already in. And they continue buying searching for weak hand sellers, spreading FUD through social media influencers, manipulating price on the exchanges. To limit buy big amount of BTC they have to find someone to market sell that to them. So think twice about selling your cryptos when you see a big red candle. On the other hand a $500 green candle doesn't guarantee a bull run rally to 100K in the moment. So be clever and make your own research. But that was a fundamental part of the idea where I want to message you that local bottom is somewhere around the corner. And if you are smart then you already started building your investor's portfolio.
Now lets get to the charts and look from the technical point of view. After rally from 3K to 14K we have an ABC correction completing with a C wave in its final stage. Price is moving in a big descending channel and you might noticed how price plays with middle channel line which acts as a support and resistance. Price touched that line several times from below but failed to break through. What is more there is a descending triangle pattern is forming from the end of November 2019 which usually plays out to the downside.
BTC might find a possible local bottom at the level of 5K where weekly MA200, support trend line and big volume zone are located.
What is more looking at the Fibonacci retracement levels on a log chart based on log scale (you have to manually enable this function in the settings) we can see that 0.618 Fib level was not tested yet. And BTC is sitting on 0.5 Fib level now. The reason I use log scale in this particular case is because on bigger time frames it gives more precise picture. You can see that all Fib levels were played very accurately on log scale.
0.618 is a golden Fibonacci retracement level for most BTC corrections.
Considering the above, conclusion is that Bitcoin price might break that triangle to the downside collecting fuel from stop-loses and heading to the limit buy zone where big players have their orders placed already. In light of the fact that Bitcoin halving will happen in mid May I think there won't be a long accumulation period as it was in winter 2018-2019. A V-bottom structure might leave overboard those who hesitate. So you have to be prepared in ahead because timing will play into the hands of large investors who has more data.
What will happen next the price will tell.
This idea is not a financial advise, but you probably know that already ;)
Many of you have probably seen well known "Psychology of market cycle" chart where the disbelief stage precedes a new cycle. In that case many investors usually say "This is a suckers rally". Let's figure it out.
Analyzing Bitcoin's sentiment in last months I see fear, greed and disbelief. Retail investors are hesitating to buy BTC waiting for a final capitulation to 3K or even to 1K. But we might never see these prices again. Big investors are already in. And they continue buying searching for weak hand sellers, spreading FUD through social media influencers, manipulating price on the exchanges. To limit buy big amount of BTC they have to find someone to market sell that to them. So think twice about selling your cryptos when you see a big red candle. On the other hand a $500 green candle doesn't guarantee a bull run rally to 100K in the moment. So be clever and make your own research. But that was a fundamental part of the idea where I want to message you that local bottom is somewhere around the corner. And if you are smart then you already started building your investor's portfolio.
Now lets get to the charts and look from the technical point of view. After rally from 3K to 14K we have an ABC correction completing with a C wave in its final stage. Price is moving in a big descending channel and you might noticed how price plays with middle channel line which acts as a support and resistance. Price touched that line several times from below but failed to break through. What is more there is a descending triangle pattern is forming from the end of November 2019 which usually plays out to the downside.
What is more looking at the Fibonacci retracement levels on a log chart based on log scale (you have to manually enable this function in the settings) we can see that 0.618 Fib level was not tested yet. And BTC is sitting on 0.5 Fib level now. The reason I use log scale in this particular case is because on bigger time frames it gives more precise picture. You can see that all Fib levels were played very accurately on log scale.
Considering the above, conclusion is that Bitcoin price might break that triangle to the downside collecting fuel from stop-loses and heading to the limit buy zone where big players have their orders placed already. In light of the fact that Bitcoin halving will happen in mid May I think there won't be a long accumulation period as it was in winter 2018-2019. A V-bottom structure might leave overboard those who hesitate. So you have to be prepared in ahead because timing will play into the hands of large investors who has more data.
What will happen next the price will tell.
This idea is not a financial advise, but you probably know that already ;)
Comment:
Price was rejected 3rd time by Ichimoku Cloud on a daily chart:
Comment:
I'm just wondering if this scenario will play. Bitcoin loves making moves against the market sentiment:
Do you remember Bitcoin's FU-moves? ;)
Comment:
The price is under the 8K resistance. A break of this level will be an important bullish signal for a trend reversal:
