BTCUSD may go kaput to $8k (or 5.4???)

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
At the moment, we're still trading within the symmetrical triangle, but because the lunar new year is still too far away it's hard to see how a rally could start. There're three possible scenarios:

s1: BTC goes kaput from now. This will be very bearish , as we're not even at the apex yet. A drop of $4.5k can be expected ---> target will be $5.4k.

s2: We go to the apex and BTC goes kaput. the long-term trend line could provide strong support. $8 will be the target.

s3: BTC doesn't break down & stays between 11k & 13k until mid-Feb.

btw, if you believe the H&S must be completed, the target will be $5.4k (as the neckline is at 0.5x). I'm starting to think it's really going to $5k. Never felt so real before (even though I wrote it a couple of times).
Comment: BTW, I think s2 more likely. 5.4k will be disastrous
Comment: I hope bitfinex will not go belly up
Comment: The real problem in this market: Nobody wants to buy BTC b/c alts grow faster, but when BTC is in the red alts go redder.

We need a USD (no 't')-denominated exchange that has no BTC pairs.
Comment: small pump tonight to 11k. perhaps as we enter feb, this will be the beginning of double bottom
Comment: oho, looks like s1 :'(

haven't sold all my shitcoins yet :(
Comment: we've touched 9k. if lucky, this will be the end of the crash.
Comment: The last time btc is this oversold was on 11/11/2017.

I expect some good news will come within the week.
Comment: so much kaput
DrJLT leondb
@leondb, I was almost rekt on bitfinex :'( had to close half of my positions to avoid liquidation --- was too stupid & saw high tradable balanace & low leverage & thought positions were ok (all have liquidation price 0). but my collateral (ETH, NEO, EOS) crashed hard.
leondb DrJLT
@DrJLT, I have luckily never used Bitfinex, are people running?
DrJLT leondb
@leondb, doesn't seem like it. I think once it goes up they'll show their bank account.
Seems like India FUD.
DrJLT leondb
@leondb, india 0.0001% wants to buy in.
leondb DrJLT
@DrJLT, do you have a longterm in BTC? Think it will ever hit 20k again?
DrJLT leondb
@leondb, I sure hope so. I have too many shitcoins :D

I think 50k by 2019, maybe even higher. but this is just personal guesswork (I've been writing a white paper for my exchange, and there're dozens of disclaimers :)
DrJLT cryptoniter
@cryptoniter, ok, so it must be that some friends of bloomberg wants to buy in :)
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