No fancy technical analysis here, just pure observation.
Now I've posted this as a comment on goldbug1's recent "SHORT BTC - Memoirs of a 2013 Trader - History Repeats!" post but I would still like to see some more thoughts on this. Most of the posts here deal mainly with Elliot Waves so I would just like to add something that provides a different approach.
BTC's price movement from August 1 to now is almost identical to its movement from roughly June 1 to June 21. If you drew a box around each of those time periods, you'll see that the movement now is almost mimicking the movement then. I've seen others hint towards this at the beginning of the correction we are in but it was too early then to say whether or not the price was really following the June-July correction. However, I think it has developed enough now to be able to identify some really uncanny similarities.
IF the price continues to mimic the June-July period, then I think it's safe to say that we are now due for a slow bleed towards sub-$3000 levels possibly reaching the lowest point some time in December. I say December because the movement in the second orange area (in the attached chart) has taken roughly 3 times as long to form compared to the first orange area in June (~2 months compared to ~20 days). By that rationale, the entire correction will thus finish in ~3-4 months. Now, of course this scenario is only IF the price continues to mimic the June-July movement.
Let me know what you guys think. I'll be keeping this updated as the movement progresses.
Now I've posted this as a comment on goldbug1's recent "SHORT BTC - Memoirs of a 2013 Trader - History Repeats!" post but I would still like to see some more thoughts on this. Most of the posts here deal mainly with Elliot Waves so I would just like to add something that provides a different approach.
BTC's price movement from August 1 to now is almost identical to its movement from roughly June 1 to June 21. If you drew a box around each of those time periods, you'll see that the movement now is almost mimicking the movement then. I've seen others hint towards this at the beginning of the correction we are in but it was too early then to say whether or not the price was really following the June-July correction. However, I think it has developed enough now to be able to identify some really uncanny similarities.
IF the price continues to mimic the June-July period, then I think it's safe to say that we are now due for a slow bleed towards sub-$3000 levels possibly reaching the lowest point some time in December. I say December because the movement in the second orange area (in the attached chart) has taken roughly 3 times as long to form compared to the first orange area in June (~2 months compared to ~20 days). By that rationale, the entire correction will thus finish in ~3-4 months. Now, of course this scenario is only IF the price continues to mimic the June-July movement.
Let me know what you guys think. I'll be keeping this updated as the movement progresses.
This is to compare with end of 2013 (1day sticks), where price levels dipped and didn't rebound back for a few years. As you can see, also some heavy similarities with then.