Recap: Here we are, another month and another Bitcoin correction. As others posted, you could point to the monthly options expiration as a strong reason for at part of the correction, but other contributing factors and a respectable amount of fud made this one of the strongest corrections we have observed in the cycle- it wasn't the strongest (yet) in terms of Bitcoin's % value lost, but it reset other indicators:
MACD: lowest number since the bottom of the 2017/2018 correction in February 2018. This can be interpreted either way but I'd say its a very bearish signal short term, until it reverses.
Fear & Greed Index: Fear is at 37, this is the most fearful the market has been since the black swan COVID crash in March 2020, but also overdue. The market was stubbornly bullish through March into April and it needed to cool off.
20W EMA and 21W SMA: these are quickly catching up and we appear on a path to retest them, they are on a course to touch ~48k soon.
Gaps: We have gaps around 52k and 45k. The market may retest those, or it may blast past them but they are important to note since ~90% eventually are filled
Whats Next: I expect some choppiness still, and odds are good that two things will happen: 1.) we will gravitate towards the gaps, and 2.) we will retest the 20W EMA/21W SMA. That requires us to move to 52k and down to around 48k. I am not confident that we will drop below 48k because bears already appear overextended as noted by smaller daily candles and lower volume. So monitor the price action look for confirmation of a bounce from either before entering a trade.
A retest of the EMA/SMA is healthy and overdue. That is a good point to spring back bullish for the next bullish swing up. Other market metrics and FA favor a continued bull cycle, but its true we can't rule out an extended bear cycle yet, and failure to regain ground over the 50 EMA by early May, we may see a deeper correction and prolonged bear cycle that could go weeks or even months. This week is a critical decision point for Bitcoin, but I personally feel very bullish going into May.
Other indicators:
Bullish: Miners / MPI: still hodling- this can be interpreted as bearish normally, but the miners began hodling at the beginning of March and chose not to see into notably higher prices so I continue to interpret this as a bullish indicator
Bullish: Whale Ratio: while the whales are clearly nudging the market in a direction, you don't see massive distribution like you'd see towards the end of a cycle. In fact you see the opposite and it appears what whales and industry found an equillibrium, and are happy to accumulate more between the 40s and 50s.
Bullish: OTC / Industry Investment: In the preceding 7 weeks we saw as many "large" wallets created via Coinbase OTC as we saw in the entirety of 3 years previous. 12 new wallets over 8,000 BTC were created since the end of Feburary. Industry -is- buying this range up between 40k and 60k.