Ok, I'll humor you all for a moment here and take a look at the expanded flat scenario on BTC. Personally, I am not a fan of this because it means we will see NEW LOWS by the end of THIS YEAR.
First off, nobody really wants that right now. There's still a lot of bears in disbelief and there are so many out there that have missed on insane profit opportunities in the last month. If you've missed out, then you should understand that we're in a place where price action is boring. Let me elaborate.
First, the rules of an expanded flat:
Ok, so why is the last rule invalid? Well, it's because the 5th rule has not been completed yet. The final wave of wave C has not passed the top of wave A yet. The current price action looks like a wave 4 for the last 1-2 weeks which means we'll probably make that push up into resistance at the 161.8% extension somewhere around $27000. We could pull back to $21000 before we make that move but only time will tell.
I know a lot of you are waiting for a dip to buy. There's a lot of you in that scenario. I've mentioned previously (in mid January) that there may not be a dip, and that was before BTC decided to move up another $2-3000.
Last note - We will get a pull back, and it'll be significant and a lot of longs will get liquidated. If this is an expanded flat, though, the target is not $15,000. It's not $12,000. This structure, if it is an expanded flat, would have a target below $10,000... and it would happen by the end of 2023.
Personally, I am not that bearish, but am willing to adapt if that is what the market decides it wants.
Last note - The running flat idea is somewhat valid, with the exception that running flats usually terminate at the 100% extension of AB. We've gotten to the 123.6% extension already. This leaves the expanded flat as the only true scenario left for the bears to make new November lows short term.
First off, nobody really wants that right now. There's still a lot of bears in disbelief and there are so many out there that have missed on insane profit opportunities in the last month. If you've missed out, then you should understand that we're in a place where price action is boring. Let me elaborate.
First, the rules of an expanded flat:
- Corrective 3-wave structure in an ABC formation (in progress)
- Waves A and B are 3 wave structure (complete)
- Wave C is an impulse and can be a diagonal (in progress)
- Wave B terminates beyond the start of wave A (complete)
- Wave C ends beyond the ending level of wave A (incomplete)
- Wave C = 123.6% - 161.8% of wave A projected from the end of wave B (INVALID)
Ok, so why is the last rule invalid? Well, it's because the 5th rule has not been completed yet. The final wave of wave C has not passed the top of wave A yet. The current price action looks like a wave 4 for the last 1-2 weeks which means we'll probably make that push up into resistance at the 161.8% extension somewhere around $27000. We could pull back to $21000 before we make that move but only time will tell.
I know a lot of you are waiting for a dip to buy. There's a lot of you in that scenario. I've mentioned previously (in mid January) that there may not be a dip, and that was before BTC decided to move up another $2-3000.
Last note - We will get a pull back, and it'll be significant and a lot of longs will get liquidated. If this is an expanded flat, though, the target is not $15,000. It's not $12,000. This structure, if it is an expanded flat, would have a target below $10,000... and it would happen by the end of 2023.
Personally, I am not that bearish, but am willing to adapt if that is what the market decides it wants.
Last note - The running flat idea is somewhat valid, with the exception that running flats usually terminate at the 100% extension of AB. We've gotten to the 123.6% extension already. This leaves the expanded flat as the only true scenario left for the bears to make new November lows short term.