Phi-Deltalytics

IF COVID-19 Hits Again…

Long
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
What would happen if COVID-19 Hits again?
If COVID-19 has another outbreak, we think we’ll go through the similar three phases the market went through since mid-February.

Phase 1: Denial
Phase 2: Fear & Market over-reaction
Phase 3: Recovery

However, we do believe the market impact would be smaller this time around. Some countries are still experiencing a high rate of daily discovered new cases and the negative impacts from these countries have already been priced in. The market sentiment would also be less fearful given the readily developed global COVID-19 awareness.

To what degree will BTC be correlated with SPX?

Best wishes to all of you! Stay safe and positive!
Comment: If you want to keep track of COVID19 status on your own charts, use the script below. )) Simply select the country you need in inputs.
Comment: Beijing Daily Confirmed New Covid19 Cases:
4/17 – 6/10: 2 months of 0 cases
6/11: 1
6/12: 6
6/13: 36
6/14: 36
6/15: 27
6/16: 31
6/17: 21
6/18: 25
6/19: 22
6/20: 22
(Prior peak in March – 32)

Do you think there’s going to be another COVID19 outbreak in China?
Comment: A new week is now upon us. Here's our plan.
Comment: This is how we tie TA and FA together!
Comment: Another drop in BTC likely in the short-term. We are still bullish for the long-term and accumulating whenever we can. Check out the details below:
Comment: BTC is so far moving as planned. Currently, it's at a critical moment. The 2D RSI needs to move above its MAs for a continued BTC bull trend.
Comment: BTC remains in a bullish trend and we are currently at a level of great risk-reward setup.
See the update below from both fundamental and the technical perspectives.
Comment: There are two group of people in the crypto space: long-term investors and short-term speculators. One often overlooked fact is while short-term speculators dominate the actively daily traded BTC, long-term investors actually dominate the entire BTC holding. Understanding how these two groups contribute to BTC value and price separately is crucial in profiting in the long run.
Comment: CME institutional traders’ net position remains similar to the level in mid-February 2020 (the BTC price peak before "black Thursday" 40% drop), and it has been dropping significantly since BTC attempted 10k. This makes it very hard to argue the short-term bull side.

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More on BTC long-term perspectives and August rally ahead:
https://phidelta.substack.com/p/forecast-7-relief-rally
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