botje11

Bitcoin Bigger Picture, healthy correction or dangerous rally

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I posted this message 3/4 days ago in my public channel:

For the bigger picture, i think it would be best to see a lower high now. If that happens, it could turn into like a big bull flag (or cup and handle like some people like to use). To keep the V shape rally from 4K to 8.4 alive, we should see price hold above the 6000 (6200/6800). So seeing a good correction down again to test support and then move up. This will be a very bullish outcome, which i don't think is likely (because i am a bit biased for not believing we are going to the moon already). But i don't like to look ahead that much, rather judge each wave as they come to judge potential.

So for now, seeing a rally above 8400, can happen, but then it needs to be a good volume push. Because i think it might be dangerous to see a high just above the previous one. Which might tell us that the market is not ready yet for such prices. That could become a disappointment and, depending on the volume , might turn into a bigger drop than the V shape version.

So i don't like a rally right away, rather see a retest of support again first coming week. So it's an easy wait for me not to go long yet. At 8000 now, big chance we will see it again coming weeks, even if it rallies now.


So far i am glad to see the market (retail money) did not buy these highs like crazy again and that we are at least consolidating some more and possibly even making that healthy correction. I know it sucks for the bulls to see the price drop 1000/2000 points again from the current levels. But from my experience, to really make a long term low and start the bull market again. A correction to the 6K is much better than just going up in a straight line. Because it will drop just as hard again eventually without making some solid support zones. The support zones are not magical TA lines/pattern/indicators or whatever, big support zones is simply a translation of levels where buyers are a bigger force than sellers. The whole market, you and I and the whales/pro's need to see that certain levels become unbreakable. See it as making a solid foundation. But how can we know if we don't really test those zones?
We had a zone like that in 2018, which became unbreakable, but the problem in 2018 was that we were making lower highs after each bounce up from the 6K. So instead of breaking that bearish pattern , the 6K broke and the market crashed.


To give another example to why i think it's better to drop some instead of going up already, take a look at my alt coin market cap charts from the past months. Where i showed an example of a healthy movement (correction) and an unhealthy one.




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BTC. Draw a triangle. Important areas. Trade in the channel. I think we'll go down
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Key resistance broken, room for long positions after the pull-back!

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This is my view
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Correction??? Lol.

Wait for it ;)

Enjoy the long weekend and happy trading to all!

Cheers.
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SpartaBTC scripter
@scripter, I think you're right
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This is how we do it. :)

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Longer consolidation process if the resistance R1 at $8,000 is not broken, however if R2 is broken, bull run likely to continue:

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Currently, it looks like it goes into your red line direction because soon, we might get finally some confirmed breakout from the chart patterns.
A 4H candle close above 8k will confirm several breakouts:
- Breakout from the short-term bull flag
- Breakout from the triangle
- Break above the round number/psychological level $8,000

It would be great to see a confirmed price action over a long time!
Have a great weekend!
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