BCryptological

The Effect of Futures Expiration and ETF Decisions on BTC

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
All traders and investors should be aware of two sets of key dates in BTC:

1) The date that Bitcoin Futures contracts expire (shown on the chart in black in the past, and orange in the future)

Futures contracts let traders bet on whether the price will rise or fall, without actually having to hold bitcoins. Whilst in principal the start of these should push the value of BTC up, the dates that these contracts expire has never coincided with a bullish few days in Bitcoin (although the effect, if indeed there is correlation, thankfully seems to be short term). In fact the very first futures expiration was December 17th 2017... coinciding with Bitcoin dropping like a rock from it's all time high of the previous day! This may have been coincidental, or the futures expiration just might have been the trigger for the beginning of the correction, which is always inevitable and necessary after a huge pump.

Regardless, the next Bitcoin Futures contract (by CME) expires tomorrow 27th July and hence is unlikely to coincide with a bullish period. The epic bull run to a new all time high is more likely to come with my next point...


2) The date that a decision is given on a Bitcoin ETF (shown on the chart in green)

If you haven't heard of the various Bitcoin ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) applications which have been filed you really should do some research - they will open the floodgates to literally billions of dollars from retail traders and individual accredited investors in the US public market and is widely anticipated to mark the start of the next moon shot in BTC. The US SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) are due to give their next ETF decision on August 16th, although this is widely expected to be delayed to September. However market sentiment remains positive on the impending decision and likely the reasoning behind the recent pump in BTCUSD as this anticipated approval is being priced in. I say "anticipated", but well-connected individuals may already have been advised of which way the decision is going to go. On the other hand, this could be a bull trap, it's very hard to say.

"With the release of an ETF, this allows investors to add BTC to their retirement portfolio. Global Pensions Market: $41.3 trillion. If BTC captures just 1% of global pensions, that would create $413,000,000,000 of exposure for cryptocurrencies."

These Bitcoin Futures expiration and ETF decision dates may or may not be included in your trading and investment strategies, but they are at the very least worth being aware of.

Please give me a thumbs up and follow me if you found my analysis interesting. This is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
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