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Consensio: P < S MA < M MA < L MA = fully bearish
Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Parallel Channel
Horizontals: $3,480 - $3,500 was support, watch for it to become resistance
Trendline: Parallel Channel
Parabolic SAR: $3,566
Futures Curve: Backwardation with 3.15% spread
BTCUSDSHORTS: Formed higher low. Now it is testing the 34 MA
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
TD’ Sequential: Daily R4 | 3d R7 | 1w: R3
Ichimoku Cloud: Kumo has twisted back to bearish and price has closed the last 9 daily candles below the Tenka-Sen. Watch for C-Clamp.
Relative Strength Index: Lower highs and lower lows
Average Directional Index: Threatening to cross 20 in the next day or two.
Price Action: 24h: -2.9% | 2w: -6.1% | 1m: -9.4%
Bollinger Bands: Squeezing with price below MA. MA at $3,567 and acting as strong resistance.
Stochastic Oscillator: Weekly oversold while 3D and D approach oversold territory. When all three line up it can be a very powerful signal.
Summary: It appears that we have been eating away at $3,500 support over last two weeks and today was the first daily close below that level since the middle of December. Almost all of the metrics that I care about are fully bearish: Parallel channel, Consensio, Ichimoku Cloud, TD Sequential, Bollinger Band, along with close below horizontal support.
Normally that would be more than enough for me to enter a large short. However, I view this as a no short zone until the futures curve re enters Contango. As long as the backwardation remains I will have a preference for longs.
A big move is coming and the risk:reward appears favorable for either direction - which is often the case when the market ranges for this long. I am very interested in the Stochastic Oscillator on the D, 3D and Weekly charts. If those line up and all get a buy signal around the same time then I will be looking to open a large long.
The two most likely outcomes that I am seeing from here are: A) retest $3,000 - $3,175 for support and get a strong bounce to $5,200 - $5,800. B) Range from $3,400 - $3,550 for 2 - 3 weeks and retest top of bear channel.
If the less likely third option happens where we break down $3,000 and potentially capitulate then I have high hopes that I will be able to enter a short as soon as the futures market re enters Contango (believe that if it’s a bear trap there will be Backwardation, if it is a real breakdown there will be Contango).
Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge
Consensio: P < S MA < M MA < L MA = fully bearish
Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Parallel Channel
Horizontals: $3,480 - $3,500 was support, watch for it to become resistance
Trendline: Parallel Channel
Parabolic SAR: $3,566
Futures Curve: Backwardation with 3.15% spread
BTCUSDSHORTS: Formed higher low. Now it is testing the 34 MA
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
TD’ Sequential: Daily R4 | 3d R7 | 1w: R3
Ichimoku Cloud: Kumo has twisted back to bearish and price has closed the last 9 daily candles below the Tenka-Sen. Watch for C-Clamp.
Relative Strength Index: Lower highs and lower lows
Average Directional Index: Threatening to cross 20 in the next day or two.
Price Action: 24h: -2.9% | 2w: -6.1% | 1m: -9.4%
Bollinger Bands: Squeezing with price below MA. MA at $3,567 and acting as strong resistance.
Stochastic Oscillator: Weekly oversold while 3D and D approach oversold territory. When all three line up it can be a very powerful signal.
Summary: It appears that we have been eating away at $3,500 support over last two weeks and today was the first daily close below that level since the middle of December. Almost all of the metrics that I care about are fully bearish: Parallel channel, Consensio, Ichimoku Cloud, TD Sequential, Bollinger Band, along with close below horizontal support.
Normally that would be more than enough for me to enter a large short. However, I view this as a no short zone until the futures curve re enters Contango. As long as the backwardation remains I will have a preference for longs.
A big move is coming and the risk:reward appears favorable for either direction - which is often the case when the market ranges for this long. I am very interested in the Stochastic Oscillator on the D, 3D and Weekly charts. If those line up and all get a buy signal around the same time then I will be looking to open a large long.
The two most likely outcomes that I am seeing from here are: A) retest $3,000 - $3,175 for support and get a strong bounce to $5,200 - $5,800. B) Range from $3,400 - $3,550 for 2 - 3 weeks and retest top of bear channel.
If the less likely third option happens where we break down $3,000 and potentially capitulate then I have high hopes that I will be able to enter a short as soon as the futures market re enters Contango (believe that if it’s a bear trap there will be Backwardation, if it is a real breakdown there will be Contango).
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