this 7 year macro trend line is currently being tested as support once again , daily stochrsi bottomed out and RSI testing the 50 level. if the trend is your friend , then a 6 year trend is probably a good macro line to follow to see if it is still a sustained support level.
Comment
⋅
Comment: getting over extended - market must attempt to find supported bottom , price increase unsustainable in short term. will check back in several months time ... not financial advice these are just my trading signals
Comment
⋅
well my oh my this has aged well, missed a little at the top - but look what was avoided - patience is the best practice for investing - if entering back in , simply set stop loss accordingly in my opinion, downside risk is still here all the way to 23k , but we did take a lot off the top, and BTC cycles after havenings end in the winter not in the spring! mining hash rate dropping and other various economic factors are to be considered !
There will be the time the log charts are not reliable anymore. The reason is simple: Money flow is a linear function with only one grade (you put in each dollar one by one). The log chart visualizes the percent changes very well.
But if you do the math and project the next halving base you come to (only) 27k which would then be clearly under this trend. But this wouldn't be a bearish sign for btc, since it would only mean that this large volatile behaviour would decrease over time, which is actually good when it comes to the store of value aspect.
On the other hand you can take the top trend line in log chart view and come to 100k, which would follow a constant factor of the increasing halving period tops. Just take the halving prices (12, 658 and 8572) and their difference (644 (1319 days) and 7914 (1401 days)) and calculate their slopes ( 0.488 /day and 5.6488 /day). If you assume a constant increase and ignore the very first period) you will come to a crossing point near 100k, which is pretty interesting.
Unfortunatelly all these geometrical analysis is only pure spectulation because you always find a way to prove them wrong. But still interesting.
But if you do the math and project the next halving base you come to (only) 27k which would then be clearly under this trend. But this wouldn't be a bearish sign for btc, since it would only mean that this large volatile behaviour would decrease over time, which is actually good when it comes to the store of value aspect.
On the other hand you can take the top trend line in log chart view and come to 100k, which would follow a constant factor of the increasing halving period tops. Just take the halving prices (12, 658 and 8572) and their difference (644 (1319 days) and 7914 (1401 days)) and calculate their slopes ( 0.488 /day and 5.6488 /day). If you assume a constant increase and ignore the very first period) you will come to a crossing point near 100k, which is pretty interesting.
Unfortunatelly all these geometrical analysis is only pure spectulation because you always find a way to prove them wrong. But still interesting.