Well folks, that last drop into the 75xx area, pretty much confirms we are heading to the bottom of the triangle. I took a long at the 0.618 fib as it was possible the correction was over ... but not without a stop, and those triggered just now. I still have some alts (EOS) that have found support ... but I'm not sure those will hold. Stops ... set them, and I don't adjust them. If there's a bounce, I'll wait for my re-entry.
Anyhow, back to the wave ... in my previous ideas I indicated there is a possibility BTC would correct 0.618 from the rise from 6.5k to 10k, and then start a nice impulse up. Based on the wave count, the lowest BTC could drop to keep this option alive was estimated to be 7644. We broke the 0.618 fib true and well (no question about it) and we invalidated the impulse wave that could have stopped it at 7644. There's not that much support at the 75xx level, and they key one is probably just a psychological support of the 7500 price. The real support is at the 0.786 fib and 72XX level. That get's BTC close enough to the triangle bottom, which is defined by the bottom bold green line labelled "6m Trnd". This is a trend line that I believe represents a good value for BTC according to a 6 to 8 month projection from last year.
So going to 72XX, will put this bottom in site at around 6900 - 7000. The bears will be that close to the goal line ... do you think they'll stop shy of that goal? I don't ...
So, I've deleted the bullish blue line scenario. We are most probably following the red wave I've plotted, and the question is how low can we go?
My thoughts are we could get a bounce at:
- 7200 where there is support and the 0.786 fib.
- 6900 where the bottom of the triangle is.
- 6500 an extended wave E and do a double (triple?) bottom test, and also makes the length of wave C the similar to wave A of this ABC correction.
I expect a bounce up from one of those points ... and the question is, do we enter a bull market, or will it be temporary relief? If it is temporary relief (drawn in dashed lines on my chart) ... we can turn this ABC correction down into an impulse, and head to 5.4k (or lower) after a small bounce up!
As usual, only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not use this information for investment decisions. For educational purposes only.
Anyhow, back to the wave ... in my previous ideas I indicated there is a possibility BTC would correct 0.618 from the rise from 6.5k to 10k, and then start a nice impulse up. Based on the wave count, the lowest BTC could drop to keep this option alive was estimated to be 7644. We broke the 0.618 fib true and well (no question about it) and we invalidated the impulse wave that could have stopped it at 7644. There's not that much support at the 75xx level, and they key one is probably just a psychological support of the 7500 price. The real support is at the 0.786 fib and 72XX level. That get's BTC close enough to the triangle bottom, which is defined by the bottom bold green line labelled "6m Trnd". This is a trend line that I believe represents a good value for BTC according to a 6 to 8 month projection from last year.
So going to 72XX, will put this bottom in site at around 6900 - 7000. The bears will be that close to the goal line ... do you think they'll stop shy of that goal? I don't ...
So, I've deleted the bullish blue line scenario. We are most probably following the red wave I've plotted, and the question is how low can we go?
My thoughts are we could get a bounce at:
- 7200 where there is support and the 0.786 fib.
- 6900 where the bottom of the triangle is.
- 6500 an extended wave E and do a double (triple?) bottom test, and also makes the length of wave C the similar to wave A of this ABC correction.
I expect a bounce up from one of those points ... and the question is, do we enter a bull market, or will it be temporary relief? If it is temporary relief (drawn in dashed lines on my chart) ... we can turn this ABC correction down into an impulse, and head to 5.4k (or lower) after a small bounce up!
As usual, only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not use this information for investment decisions. For educational purposes only.