CRInvestor

Bitcoin - Time For Some Catch Up

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
2792 33 10
Commodities and commodity proxies have been getting smashed of late while Bitcoin has tried to remain within the upper end of its massive 2015 trading range. A initial breach and now an acceptance below the lows of the middle of the range ($210''ish) implies the market wants/needs to explore the lower half of the range below $200/coin. Fib extension levels will lead my expectations going forward with a target window somewhere between the golden ratio ($143'ish) and a full blown 200% range extension down to $103'ish. For those late to the party, consider counter trend rallies into resistance ( PoC             , MA's and indicated red trend line ) to set up shorts ....bulls go boooooo.

Gloomy days for capital and capitalism ahead as we fast approach the much anticipated 'fear' cycle peak in Q3'17, strap on your seat belts folks, its gonna be a bumpy ride...
Brian
aka The Rational Investor
babad00k
a year ago
Hi dear CRI, thnaks for posting this. I have questions: MA's in what timeframe do you recommend for short hunting? The dailies? 4h? And, just to check, can you say what level do you consider the relevant PoC (given that in Vol Profile the PoC can move a lot depending on the visible range)?

Also, please do ETH! Is it ready for bull continuation?
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CRInvestor PRO babad00k
a year ago
Hi there and thanks for your interest,
So two questions here
1. As for which MA's one uses that is really up to your trading plan. What time frames YOU use, What criteria are necessary to trigger YOUR setups. Everyone is different, so setups look differently for everyone - its a very personal thing. I personally like using the 13ema, 30sma and 200sma. Tags and reversals off these MA's coupled with momentum/price/volume signals would constitute criteria for a trade setup (at least 3 unrelated reasons to take a trade). So please refer to the MA's on the chart for those levels.
2. The PoC (point of control) here is the entire year's range so totally relevant imo. Ideally the profile wants to looks like a nice pyramid on its side (45 degree angles) or what is called 'full'. Notice here our profile looks very top heavy. So seems to me Volprofile wise this PoC will act as the pivot as price explores both sides. It has explored the top, now seems likely we will go explore the bottom.
Hope that all helps,
Brian
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CRInvestor PRO babad00k
a year ago
thinking something like this, just put this together for fun :)
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babad00k CRInvestor
a year ago
Thanks, this chart is interesting. But the original chart you posted (top of the page) is much more doomy, no? Here we don't 'explore the bottom too much'... I see that theres a 'red' scenario here, but the green line seems not very interestes in exploring the sub-200 region, as the previous posts suggests. Do you think there are more chances of working for the coming months in the range below 200 or of sticking to our 200-300 well-known range?

Anyways, thanks a lot!

P.S. Ethereum please!
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herrschmidt babad00k
a year ago
I think what you mean is only a counter trend rally that CRInvestor expects to happen before the big drop.
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CRInvestor PRO babad00k
a year ago
$ETH - Nothing to get excited about here...lol  
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CRInvestor PRO babad00k
a year ago
https://www.coinigy.com/s/i/55dc7f5c/
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babad00k CRInvestor
a year ago
Thanks!
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babad00k CRInvestor
a year ago
Just FYI, there's ETH charts here in Tradingview, symbol ETHXBT
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MagnusTradingGroup PRO CRInvestor
a year ago
this looks good
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Haim26
a year ago
to whom can help me. I am looking to trade some bit coins. How do you go about. etf, stock, currency... Any specific trading platform needed. I am based in Canada. Your help is greatly appreciated. thanks
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CRInvestor PRO Haim26
a year ago
In Canada, go to your local bank and simply ask to open a discount brokerage account (almost all of them have them) and away you go. If you want to fund an account with bitcoin there are a few sites out there that will let you trade via crypto.( https://1broker.com/ & https://bit4x.com/ & https://www.instaforex.com/bitcoin_trading.php to name a few)
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CRInvestor PRO Haim26
a year ago
btw the 'C' stands for Canadian.....lol
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Update, she's working her way up into indicated levels
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Brian
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Update
She didn't even get back to 38.2 or trend line before showing signs of failure. This may take a few setups to get in at 'the top' but already we have a new double top to work shorts.
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and Stamp in particular off the dailies
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Update, nice to see the first top didn't lead to a fail. Now with that resolved, we can start to see some clearer upside objectives
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Update, While price isn't yet at a desirable trade location internal indicators are rolling over. MACD bear momentum divergence has moved from potential to confirmed. Willy (the real and only official version of this indicator...please be very careful using others 'knock-offs') is now overbought. Additionally, the bull's impetus may break here with any up (green) volume bar less then 703 coins. Point is, I have been looking for a counter trend rally and then a subsiquent fail and it appears that we have now done the 'dead-cat-bounce' part and its now a question of exactly where 'the top' comes in.
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CRInvestor PRO EliyahuGigi
a year ago
lol....'you're wrong'......obviously you are very new to this game....there simply is no 'wrong' or 'right' idiot. This is all opinion and I have yet to meet anyone with a crystal ball so I guarantee we will all be a little 'wrong' in some way or another......go troll somewhere else.
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babad00k CRInvestor
a year ago
Worse than being a troll, this guy is a spammer... has been posting this link everywhere in Tradingview, even via PM.
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CRInvestor PRO babad00k
a year ago
I don't do much on TV anymore (because of this nonsense) so I wouldn't know. Thanks though for the heads up. I am just posting my thoughts here. Frankly, I couldn't care if people agree or disagree with them - more like an out loud trade public journal. And fwiw, my trading plan expects me to be 'wrong' 33% of the time...lol... being 'right' isn't the key, its being paid when I am right that is....
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babad00k CRInvestor
a year ago
Other than the spammer-troll, i feel the conversation overall has had a decent level in this thread. I think its best to just brush his comments away, they are just to bring attention to his link. I hope he doesnt derail this quality thread we have going on here! Any updates? BTC, ETH? Looks like ETH might finally be starting a new bullish cycle after a relatively long accumulation?
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CRInvestor PRO babad00k
a year ago
meh, TV and alts don't really get along imho...hahahahaha fwiw, here is a trade I reported on another forum I play in for alts. https://www.coinigy.com/s/i/55e31e92/
Cheers,
Brian
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babad00k CRInvestor
a year ago
Ah, that's quite quirurgical! And what is the forum for alts trading? I don't like trading alts too much, buy I am into ether because I've met Vitalik (the creator) and i bought on the presale a year ago.

I agree, its feels odd to monitor ETH in trdingview, but I cant seem to figure out why exactly that is! So, I'd like to hang on the alts traders forum! Where is it?
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CRInvestor PRO babad00k
a year ago
So, I send your name along to the Slack group organizer (Alex Sterk - nice guy). Hopefully he will send an invite along to you. He said he has a TV username (alex_sterk) so maybe poke him here and remind him of this convo....cheers
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BuyBitcoin.WS
a year ago
we will retrace to 210 and decision time/consolidate will be from there for bull vs bear after consolidation. your target of 152 the most plausible target for the bears right now. Bulls in the other hand don't have a big case after this dead cat bounce
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CRInvestor PRO BuyBitcoin.WS
a year ago
I like it, Mtn man level (61.8 Fib) tag off this double top fail here is 2:1......trader's gotta take that kind of r/r every day of the week
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BuyBitcoin.WS CRInvestor
a year ago
u got it
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Update
ah, a trader's life....just hurry up and wait
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babad00k CRInvestor
a year ago
Interesting short entry, right where many consider the bottom is...

I was already short, for the record... lets see how it plays out. In my setup, instead of defining the stop through the previous high, i use a trendline traced from the $316 top to the recent $238 top. If that line breaks with volume, or with bullish indicators, then I consider that to be my stop. That way, I can have a tighter stop (plus it actually goes lower every candle), and therefore less risk. Right now the line would be hit at about $231, although its not an automatic stop; it is more the price at which i start to hunt for confirmation to stop.

Makes sense, or is it the most ridiculous thing you have ever read?
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CRInvestor PRO babad00k
a year ago
The most important thing about trading for the long term is you stick to your plan. If (as you outlined) your plan is to do what you say, then I am perfectly fine if it works for you. The most significant problem I see with new people to trading is they really don't know what a 'setup' actually looks like and what works for them. Trading is a very personal thing. One indicator may work well for one trader but be a totally disaster for another. The key here is to find what works for you and stick to it. Once you have found a setup that produces desired results (CRI's 1st rule of investing - find a setup/algo approach to trading that produces desired results 66% of the time) its simply a question of rinse and repeat, rinse and repeat...
hope that helps and all the best
Brian
p.s. new school term starts next week, for those that need help in both building and sticking to your plan, consider enrolling in our program....it might just change your life
http://www.therationalinvestor.co/tris-school-home-page/

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Update
Stop on short setup hit.
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Now hunting longs as new 'BoT' setup fired (tweet: https://twitter.com/CRInvestor/status/640180958415622144)
Cheers all and gl in following those trading plans
Brian
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Update
The BoT took over once the short setup was broken, for those that took the long, clearly identified 3:1 r/r target at/near $265 area & now 'stop to break even level' has been hit, worst case scenario on this long is a scratch trade....
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