Introduction
When I think about Crypto in general, it’s safe to say that 2023 should be better for the sector than 2022. The term “Crypto Winter” entered the conscience of investors, and not just crypto traders, as all of tier-1 crypto lost substantial portions of their value. As the sector got so much positive news leading up to the beginning of 2022, we now have to expect the sheer amount of bad news coverage is warranted. But this trader feels, rather than “Crypto Winter” … the word “Implosion” was a far better way to characterize the last year. Sam Bankman Fried’s FTX implosion was a bookend on Do Kwon’s Terra Luna Implosion.
These characters got me thinking. If Time Magazine features its “Person of the Year”, and People Magazine is famous for its “Sexiest Man Alive” issue, Crypto should publish something I would entitle “Industry A$$ho!e of the Year”. Young, Immature, Rich and associated with Crypto, proved to be the ingredients for Implosions of epic proportion in 2022. No one can determine if Satoshi Nakamoto is a real human being, so let’s hope Anatoly Yakovenko, Charles Hoskinson, Vitalik Buterin continue to be good ambassadors of their creations.
Let’s recap:
Crypto High Low Variance
Bitcoin $48,102.62 $15,479.25 (67.82%)
Ethereum $3,939.05 $883.60 (77.568%)
ADA $1.639 $0.296 (81.94%)
Solana $181.03 $10.94 (93.956%)
In terms of Crypto’s recovery, I hope 2023 turns out to be a boring year for Crypto news. Investor sentiment is at an all-time low. Although that is an essential ingredient to major bottoms, as I have previously forecasted were at now, sentiment shift has no timeframe. What we’re waiting on is for faith in crypto currency being restored. That will take time. The way these price patterns evolve is by the time public trust returns to the crypto currency market, Tier-1 Crypto will be many multiples higher than their current price. I always find it useful to consult “Mere Mortals” about their perspective of crypto. When having those discussions, I listen to hear if they get the basic value proposition that this new industry affords. Suffice to say, I have not gotten that feeling in any of the conversations I have had. Currently, it's just too complicated. The day that society as a whole can realize the value, with no thinking effort, is the day I’ll conclude Crypto has crossed that mass adoption Rubicon.
However, here’s a fun thought experiment I play over in my head from time to time. Fiat currencies are only as solid as the full faith and credit of their respective state’s financial house. Can you imagine if the global financial system had to deal with a US Debt default? Currently politicians around the globe easily play with fire around such important topics as war and peace. Russia’s invasion of their democratic sovereign neighbor is an example that is obviously in the news...but what about all the other examples that we pay little attention to. For example, in the US, politicians have more and more frequently been using the debt ceiling as a mere negotiating tool for their own legislative or cultural agendas. I’m no political science expert but I am educated in finance. So, in having one of these mere mortal conversations about Crypto the individual said to me in relation to crypto’s epic November 2022 collapse...
” at least I’m not going to wake up tomorrow and the US Dollar will be worth $.25 cents”.
That got me thinking. If one day, US politicians were unsuccessful in pressing their desires to extract negotiations from an opposing political side, that the US had a technical default. A technical default is easily explained as the state has the means to pay its debt, however due to legislative missteps or bad faith negotiating, it’s prevented from making timely payments and technically defaults. Would this damage the full faith and credit of the United States? I’m sure it would have some effect on the dollar ...maybe even a devasting effect. It’s never happened. But I thought about the mere mortal's comments about not having to worry about waking up and the US dollar is at $0.25 cents. I think that outcome becomes a potential reality because of the gamesmanship of politicians who have no idea the ramifications of their actions. Does Fiat need to fail for Crypto to be advanced? Let’s hope that’s not how Crypto succeeds. But I’ll conclude on the next day of this outcome becoming a reality...I bet the notion of a decentralized system, not under the control of any state, not susceptible to the whims of low educated politicians, that is cost effective, fast and efficient, and relatively secure...becomes a really interesting alternative. Could that day be the day Buffet makes his first crypto transaction? Gaming how these events play out in the future is just speculation...but every now and then...I say to myself, "hmmmmmm, maybe".
As of today, the convergence of societal needs and the crypto currency value proposition, has not happened.
BUT WHAT DOES THAT HAVE TO DO WITH PRICE ACTION? Nothing.
Warren Buffet has famously said the CC has no value, provides no utility to society, creates nothing of value. Therefore, he concludes is not a real asset and should be avoided. Before I get into my technical outlook, let me leave you with something to ponder. Value is, and has always been, perspective. The creation of fiat currency was a value story of perspective based on nothing except The Romans need to fund it's global expansion outside of the current barter system. When transacting in Egypt, the things that Romans placed value on, may not have had the same the Egyptian perspective. Therefore a unit of currency that was convertible was needed...and to oversimplify, just like that Fiat currency had it's origin story. Fiat currencies have failed in the past. But the day before they failed...they had some value. Today, a portion of society believe crypto currency has value. A smaller portion of that same population trade those currencies. Regardless of whether your perspective is crypto has no utility, no societal benefit, or any usefulness to it at all, is irrelevant. Buyers and sellers transact these coins each and every day. By doing so, they give crypto value...and that’s all you really need to understand when reading my technical forecast.
Methodology
As a practitioner of Elliott Wave Theory I have no mechanism for timing. Elliott Wave is one of the most credible means of forecasting price...however, when price will achieve certain levels is not one of it's principles. My methodology took into account the smaller timeframe 5 & 3-wave patterns and built on them until I got to the larger degree analysis included in this 2023 outlook. I then examine the historical timeframes for pattern completion and applied those to the future patterns.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD-BINANCE) Forecasted 2023 Target: $28,200.00 PLUS
Most of the year I believe, like all of crypto, Bitcoin and Ethereum will advance higher but in a controlled fashion. This has more to do with trader sentiment than anything else. As confidence builds, price advances, and one builds on the other. Due to where I can assess data, (Trading-View) does not have the price data for Bitcoin since inception. I believe we’re in a wave 3 and more specifically bottom of wave ii of 3. The advance in 2023 should be associated with wave iii of 3 sub divisions.
Ethereum (ETHUSD-BINANCE) Forecasted 2023 Target: $1,850.00 PLUS
Solana (SOLUSD-BINANCE) Forecasted 2023 Target: $47.00 PLUS
Solana has indeed incurred the most challenging year since its launch. In truth, Solana only retained 7% of it’s total value at its lowest point in 2022. However, this decline represented a super cycle wave 2 so it’s difficult to determine how deep and how long these patterns will take to complete. Back in June of 2022 I forecasted that Solana could fall to as low as $12 when price was in the $50’s. So, although I was not shocked by the price drop, it was heart pumping to see it all happen in a matter of days from the $37 level. I see 2023 more so as a rebuilding year for SOL's price. In future years it's possible these advances are accelerated. As this pattern matures dialing in more precise targets and timeframe should be less of a challenge.
Cardano (ADAUSD-BINANCE) Forecasted 2023 high: $0.71 PLUS
Unfortunately for ADA (based on the data contained within Tradingview.com) of the 62 months Cardano has been trading, 38 of those months was negative price action. However, I don’t think it’s fair to draw a conclusion from the fact that ADA has traded negatively 61.2% of the time. Price deterioration in 2022 was on par with BTC and ETH. In that respect it outperformed Solana, which gets more news and overall attention. I am forecasting ADA could be on the verge of recouping much of the losses it experienced in the last couple years. The most important area for ADA to attack and eclipse is the $0.70 level. Above this level and pressure on price remains up. Above this area and price could easily become parabolic.
When I think about Crypto in general, it’s safe to say that 2023 should be better for the sector than 2022. The term “Crypto Winter” entered the conscience of investors, and not just crypto traders, as all of tier-1 crypto lost substantial portions of their value. As the sector got so much positive news leading up to the beginning of 2022, we now have to expect the sheer amount of bad news coverage is warranted. But this trader feels, rather than “Crypto Winter” … the word “Implosion” was a far better way to characterize the last year. Sam Bankman Fried’s FTX implosion was a bookend on Do Kwon’s Terra Luna Implosion.
These characters got me thinking. If Time Magazine features its “Person of the Year”, and People Magazine is famous for its “Sexiest Man Alive” issue, Crypto should publish something I would entitle “Industry A$$ho!e of the Year”. Young, Immature, Rich and associated with Crypto, proved to be the ingredients for Implosions of epic proportion in 2022. No one can determine if Satoshi Nakamoto is a real human being, so let’s hope Anatoly Yakovenko, Charles Hoskinson, Vitalik Buterin continue to be good ambassadors of their creations.
Let’s recap:
Crypto High Low Variance
Bitcoin $48,102.62 $15,479.25 (67.82%)
Ethereum $3,939.05 $883.60 (77.568%)
ADA $1.639 $0.296 (81.94%)
Solana $181.03 $10.94 (93.956%)
In terms of Crypto’s recovery, I hope 2023 turns out to be a boring year for Crypto news. Investor sentiment is at an all-time low. Although that is an essential ingredient to major bottoms, as I have previously forecasted were at now, sentiment shift has no timeframe. What we’re waiting on is for faith in crypto currency being restored. That will take time. The way these price patterns evolve is by the time public trust returns to the crypto currency market, Tier-1 Crypto will be many multiples higher than their current price. I always find it useful to consult “Mere Mortals” about their perspective of crypto. When having those discussions, I listen to hear if they get the basic value proposition that this new industry affords. Suffice to say, I have not gotten that feeling in any of the conversations I have had. Currently, it's just too complicated. The day that society as a whole can realize the value, with no thinking effort, is the day I’ll conclude Crypto has crossed that mass adoption Rubicon.
However, here’s a fun thought experiment I play over in my head from time to time. Fiat currencies are only as solid as the full faith and credit of their respective state’s financial house. Can you imagine if the global financial system had to deal with a US Debt default? Currently politicians around the globe easily play with fire around such important topics as war and peace. Russia’s invasion of their democratic sovereign neighbor is an example that is obviously in the news...but what about all the other examples that we pay little attention to. For example, in the US, politicians have more and more frequently been using the debt ceiling as a mere negotiating tool for their own legislative or cultural agendas. I’m no political science expert but I am educated in finance. So, in having one of these mere mortal conversations about Crypto the individual said to me in relation to crypto’s epic November 2022 collapse...
” at least I’m not going to wake up tomorrow and the US Dollar will be worth $.25 cents”.
That got me thinking. If one day, US politicians were unsuccessful in pressing their desires to extract negotiations from an opposing political side, that the US had a technical default. A technical default is easily explained as the state has the means to pay its debt, however due to legislative missteps or bad faith negotiating, it’s prevented from making timely payments and technically defaults. Would this damage the full faith and credit of the United States? I’m sure it would have some effect on the dollar ...maybe even a devasting effect. It’s never happened. But I thought about the mere mortal's comments about not having to worry about waking up and the US dollar is at $0.25 cents. I think that outcome becomes a potential reality because of the gamesmanship of politicians who have no idea the ramifications of their actions. Does Fiat need to fail for Crypto to be advanced? Let’s hope that’s not how Crypto succeeds. But I’ll conclude on the next day of this outcome becoming a reality...I bet the notion of a decentralized system, not under the control of any state, not susceptible to the whims of low educated politicians, that is cost effective, fast and efficient, and relatively secure...becomes a really interesting alternative. Could that day be the day Buffet makes his first crypto transaction? Gaming how these events play out in the future is just speculation...but every now and then...I say to myself, "hmmmmmm, maybe".
As of today, the convergence of societal needs and the crypto currency value proposition, has not happened.
BUT WHAT DOES THAT HAVE TO DO WITH PRICE ACTION? Nothing.
Warren Buffet has famously said the CC has no value, provides no utility to society, creates nothing of value. Therefore, he concludes is not a real asset and should be avoided. Before I get into my technical outlook, let me leave you with something to ponder. Value is, and has always been, perspective. The creation of fiat currency was a value story of perspective based on nothing except The Romans need to fund it's global expansion outside of the current barter system. When transacting in Egypt, the things that Romans placed value on, may not have had the same the Egyptian perspective. Therefore a unit of currency that was convertible was needed...and to oversimplify, just like that Fiat currency had it's origin story. Fiat currencies have failed in the past. But the day before they failed...they had some value. Today, a portion of society believe crypto currency has value. A smaller portion of that same population trade those currencies. Regardless of whether your perspective is crypto has no utility, no societal benefit, or any usefulness to it at all, is irrelevant. Buyers and sellers transact these coins each and every day. By doing so, they give crypto value...and that’s all you really need to understand when reading my technical forecast.
Methodology
As a practitioner of Elliott Wave Theory I have no mechanism for timing. Elliott Wave is one of the most credible means of forecasting price...however, when price will achieve certain levels is not one of it's principles. My methodology took into account the smaller timeframe 5 & 3-wave patterns and built on them until I got to the larger degree analysis included in this 2023 outlook. I then examine the historical timeframes for pattern completion and applied those to the future patterns.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD-BINANCE) Forecasted 2023 Target: $28,200.00 PLUS
Most of the year I believe, like all of crypto, Bitcoin and Ethereum will advance higher but in a controlled fashion. This has more to do with trader sentiment than anything else. As confidence builds, price advances, and one builds on the other. Due to where I can assess data, (Trading-View) does not have the price data for Bitcoin since inception. I believe we’re in a wave 3 and more specifically bottom of wave ii of 3. The advance in 2023 should be associated with wave iii of 3 sub divisions.
Ethereum (ETHUSD-BINANCE) Forecasted 2023 Target: $1,850.00 PLUS
Solana (SOLUSD-BINANCE) Forecasted 2023 Target: $47.00 PLUS
Solana has indeed incurred the most challenging year since its launch. In truth, Solana only retained 7% of it’s total value at its lowest point in 2022. However, this decline represented a super cycle wave 2 so it’s difficult to determine how deep and how long these patterns will take to complete. Back in June of 2022 I forecasted that Solana could fall to as low as $12 when price was in the $50’s. So, although I was not shocked by the price drop, it was heart pumping to see it all happen in a matter of days from the $37 level. I see 2023 more so as a rebuilding year for SOL's price. In future years it's possible these advances are accelerated. As this pattern matures dialing in more precise targets and timeframe should be less of a challenge.
Cardano (ADAUSD-BINANCE) Forecasted 2023 high: $0.71 PLUS
Unfortunately for ADA (based on the data contained within Tradingview.com) of the 62 months Cardano has been trading, 38 of those months was negative price action. However, I don’t think it’s fair to draw a conclusion from the fact that ADA has traded negatively 61.2% of the time. Price deterioration in 2022 was on par with BTC and ETH. In that respect it outperformed Solana, which gets more news and overall attention. I am forecasting ADA could be on the verge of recouping much of the losses it experienced in the last couple years. The most important area for ADA to attack and eclipse is the $0.70 level. Above this level and pressure on price remains up. Above this area and price could easily become parabolic.
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