I wanted to post a formal update to an idea that I had at the beginning of December. I also wanted to integrate an idea I had later that month into an overall picture.
These ideas where posted almost 2 months ago and they are very accurate. I spent a lot of time researching and building an overall perspective on this market and from what I understood, a few of the forces that move it.
What's going on in this picture? The light gray and red lines are direct copies of my prediction posted on December 2nd. The blue line is an updated version of that based on the fact that I underestimated the tops, I provided the differences from the reality and my prediction and applied it to it's bottom. Coincidentally they still correlate to potential support lines and what could turn into bitcoin's support. The red, yellow, and green boxes were recommended buy and sell zones from my idea back in late December. The new blue box is a range in which I believe the bearish momentum may turn sideways and allow for bullish volume to resume.
Anything else? There are so many voices in this crypto space (especially involving bitcoin) it's sometimes hard to hear yourself think. I posted this 2 months ago to log my ideas and see how they progressed. I have been impressed at how close I was and want to reiterate a main concept I had back then that fueled these predictions.
I thought that the exuberant growth and popularity of bitcoin was a bad sign, it was indicative of human psychology doing what it does and repeating the past. Markets don't change because humans don't change. So when I saw everybody and their uber driver talking about crypto it was obvious to me that too many people were excited. When everyone is excited and it seems too good to be true, smart money shuts up and waits for their opportunity, waits for the impressionable and emotional masses to do what 'we' do best. Do they have an influence in spreading FUD like South Korean news, India news, futures speculation, the tether scandal, bitconnect scam, etc... Do they have the power and the influence to push fake or misleading information in the case that it benefits them?
Perhaps they do. One thing to consider is you don't need some Illuminati-esk entity to cause this, a few well placed/timed media releases or a few million USD in timed sell or buy orders by various influences is more than enough to stir up the masses to do what they want. It doesn't matter if it's a pebble or a boulder thrown in a pond, the ducks and minnows will still all scatter.
Think about the state cryptos were in during the parabolic rise to ~20k. ICOs were the wild west with scams happening daily, bitcoin's network was congested and backlogged by 100,000's of transactions, fees at an all time high. Yet the price still grew.
Consider that currently the lighting network has 400 nodes operational already (a feat that will make antiquated bitcoin compete with even the newest, shiniest, value-transfer coins), think of the upgrades happening to Ethereum this year, think of atomic swaps that are quickly developing. Yet the prices are still going down. Who is talking about the positive developments being made daily? No one.The market is red. Everything is in the red. That's all the masses can see.
Take advantage and buy Bitcoin and Ethereum (and other actually promising projects) at these prices that we will never likely see again. The technology is real and ground breaking and the people that have pushed it to 20K never understood it to begin with and I'd bet they are nearly shaken out of the market by now. As it's happened before, institutional money has taken their billions and are playing in other sectors (probably equities at the moment due to the new tax plan) and will return when the price has hit it's rock bottom. They will buy as much crypto assests as they can while the price is this low and repeat the process once again.
Dear WarnerBraga,
could You please share Your thoughts about further development of Bitcoin?
BRRD
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Perhaps your lines are not meant to be taken as timescales and I hope not, as one thing Bitcoin never does when it drops this hard is have such a long rest at the bottom!
WagnerBraga
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@BRRD, The bottom has a cyclical indicator. Bitcoin has been following a 60 day pattern lately. Check back when it had an initial crash in 2012-2013, that continued throughout 2013 and 2014 (coinciding with the Mt. Gox crash). This seems like a larger scale magnitude correction already but since Bitcoin has a lot more awareness now I don't suspect it will take over a year to correct again as it did last time. I do however find it unlikely to just shoot back up like nothing has happened after 6 weeks of being in the red.
could You please share Your thoughts about further development of Bitcoin?