This next run-up to create a (of sorts) like what we've seen in history. I've identified this particular move in history with Aqua rectangles on the chart; Magenta boxes on Godmode and Yellow rectangles in .
The second run-up to create the second top may not occur (begin) for another two to seven days. Which means I'm expecting a bit more sideways action between $7,800 and $8,300 before such a move occurs. I'll elaborate more on this with multiple posts over the next 24 hours.
I also want to point out something else in regards to Wyckoff Method. In order for us to be in a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1, we need to go up to the $12,500 to $13,000 price range to show a "Sign of Strength" by the last week in August to confirm it's an Accumulation Schematic #1. So, we still have time for this price action to occur.
If I'm not mistaken, the announcement for the CBOE "ETF" will be postponed until mid to late September, 2018. Which see: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/sec-puts-decision-5-bitcoin-etfs-till-september-2018/ If this is the case, my previous statement for us needing to reach $12,500 to $13,000 price range by end of August may need to be changed to "by mid September." That may provide momentum we need for the "Sign of Strength" to come to fruition. We should expect a "Back Up / Last Point of Support" move to the downside afterwards. Especially, if the is rejected. That "Back Up" will not be that significant if the is approved and should provide quite a bit of liquidity to the market once again for a fairly good bull run. If the is rejected, I expect that "Back Up" after the "Sign of Strength" to be quite significant and a bull run will not commence until mid to late October, 2018.
For a visual picture of what I mean by a "Sign of Strength" and "Back Up / Last Point of Support," have a look at this chart in the following publication. It would also be a good idea to read the first post of comments I made in the following publication to know the difference between Accumulation Schematic #1 and #2. If the is rejected, I'm expecting Accumulation Schematic #2. If accepted, I'm expecting Accumulation Schematic #1. In either case, I believe we're in an Accumulation Schematic and NOT a Distribution Schematic.
The following link is an image to provide an example of one type of Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1: https://i.imgur.com/gcrmXTd.png
The following link is an image to provide an example of one type of Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #2 https://i.imgur.com/54FyNdB.png
More updates with charts to follow over the next 24 to 36 hours...
Remember, my publications are "opinion" only. You're the one who makes the decision in regards to what trades you may or may not make.
The Purple lines with arrows in the post above is a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1 - https://i.imgur.com/gcrmXTd.png
The Red Lines with Arrows in the post above is a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #2 - https://i.imgur.com/54FyNdB.png
I will post the 7-Day, 6-Day, 5-Day, 4-Day, 3-Day, 2-Day, Daily (1440m), 1080m, 720m and 360m TF's beginning on July 30, 2018 when we have a NEW 7-Day candle. Why? Because the indicators will move (update) when we move to a new candle.
Note the Stochastic RSI in both the 360m and 1440m TF's. I'm expecting the Stochastic RSI in the 360m to make it all the way down to at least the 20% level before a chance for reversal. The same goes for the Phoenix ARI in the 360m TF.
I'm expecting the Stochastic RSI in the 1440m to go all the way down to at least the 20% level before a chance for reversal. However, The Phoenix ARI may remain between the 80% and 100% levels in the 1440m. Which would indicate a good chance this is a brief dip.
Why a brief dip? Odds are (when looking at the 360m and 1440m) we're about to go down a bit for sure. Possibly to the $7,400 to $7,500 range. Why? To induce margin short bet positions. Many will exercise that short a bit late; only to get liquidated by the market reversing back to the upside to induce margin long positions. Then we do go up but not as high as most people in long positions would like and we go back down afterward to liquidate margin long positions.
In regards to how far down; I'll have to get back with you on that one after the moves are implemented and we see how the indicators have reacted in the 2-Day, 3-Day and 4-Day TF's.
Have a look at the 2-Day, 3-Day and 4-Day TF's (below). The Phoenix ARI in the 3-Day TF is getting very close to the 100% level. Maybe one more 3-Day candle after the current candle before it reaches the 100% level.
The Phoenix ARI in the 4-Day TF still has more room to make it to at least the 80% level. Could go as high as the 100% level before reverting back to downside pressure. Hard to say for sure...
The Blue LSMA and Red Line have already touched the Green Line WHILE the Green Line was moving down. However, there is a CHANCE of the Green Line coming back upside one last time before reverting to downside pressure for a while. Where do we see that chance? The room we see with the Phoenix ARI in the 3-Day and 4-Day TF's. Also by what we see in the 360m TF and 1440m TF mentioned earlier. I'm referring to my comment about a chance for reversal to upside pressure when the Stochastic RSI and Phoenix ARI in the 360m TF bottoms out at 20% level or lower, there could be a chance for reversal to upside pressure one last time.
I'm about to get some graphics cards cleaned and boxed up that I sold on eBay. I'll check back in a little later today.
The 5-Day, 6-Day and 7-Day still look promising at least until end of August in my opinion. Very promising... I'm just being cautious with the signal for downside pressure we're currently seeing on the Daily. Which could carry over into the 2-Day TF.
So, you might say I'm providing signals for "Swings" currently with the Daily as a compass instead of the 720m as a compass.
Our current price action since $5,700 reminds me of what ETHUSD looked like in 2017 when it began its long climb upward to astronomical highs. Where it had pauses going sideways in a TIGHT trading range before each leg up. There's a chance that's what is going on here.
These little dips in these tight trading ranges are doing their job at shaking people out with the price being higher the way it is now. Many expect a drop from here. I'm still leaning for more upside of at least one more leg up before a decent drop down for a couple of weeks then continue with upside pressure once again.
That $7,400 to $7,500 price range I gave earlier was a bit low in my opinion. It could dip to around $7,700 to $7,800 once more before legging up again.
Point out another thing with the Phoenix ARI and Stochastic RSI in the Daily (1440m) TF:
We're currently at $8,127.00
I have a bit more work to do before getting into the update I talked about with multiple time frames.
The ONLY time you should even consider trading with leverage (on margin) is when it's quite obvious the market is about to move a certain way with the indicators. For example, click PLAY on the following publication: THAT was CLEAR!!! At least it was to me. ; )
When the 12h (720m) and the 24h (1440m) are SCREAMING "Downward Pressure Incoming," let's be PATIENT and BELIEVE it when TREND trading.
If we were SWING trading, these swings were visible in the 90m and 180m TF's.
Here is the 12h (720m) TF:
First, I need to make sure we AVOID CONFUSION from this day forward. I received PM's (with good reason) from people being confused by comments I post here and there on market movements regarding SWING trading and TREND trading.
Comments I made from from 24 hours ago involved SWING trading "BUT" also pointed out it was time to sell in regards to TREND trading at the same time. Yes, I pointed out several hours ago about $7,915 being a good time to get back in but that involved SWING traders and not trading the TREND. The "compass" for the TREND involves the 720m (12h) and 1440m (24h).
FROM THIS DAY FORWARD, I WILL BE MORE DESCRIPTIVE ABOUT MY COMMENTS.
MEANING, IF I'M COMMENTING ABOUT A TREND TRADE, I WILL DECLARE IT. IF I'M COMMENTING ABOUT A SWING TRADE, I WILL DECLARE IT.
Charts to follow shortly... I have to respond to a buyer on eBay who won 7 of my auctions but did NOT pay for them. I began a "Resolve Issue Report" on eBay regarding that buyer and have to deal with it while re-listing those 7 items once again. Pisses me off...
You will also notice there is more room for the Stochastic RSI to come down.
I had a TERRIBLE experience with a buyer on eBay who won 7 auctions of mine and did not pay within the 48 hours allotted by eBay user agreement. They were upset I did not give them more time and kept spamming me with messages. I called eBay TWICE today. Once to resolve the issue of him not paying and re-listing the items. The second time was to have eBay block him from spamming me with messages. I have over 30 messages from the guy making threats at me.
Now, I just got another message from him and apparently he was NOT blocked. I have to call eBay once again to stop them. This is ridiculous.
I'll follow up with my "Chart Posting Spree" once I finish this 3rd call to Ebay to resolve this spamming issue from this guy.
DO NOT EVEN CONSIDER A MARGIN TRADE FROM MY ANALYSIS ON TREND TRADING UNLESS IT IS OBVIOUS WE ARE COMPLETING ONE WYCOFF EVENT AND BEGINNING A NEW ONE. For example: When we are transitioning from an Automatic Rally Down to a Second Test. Another example: When we are Transitioning from a Spring and/or Test after a Spring up towards a Last Point of Support and/or Sign of Strength.
The chart (below) is an excellent example of what I mean by a transition from one event to another for margin trade. This was a completion of a Test of Support AFTER a Spring that was about to head upwards to a "Last Point of Support" or "Sign of Strength" or a simple peak of a "Rally" if it turns out this is a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #2. In either of those 3 cases, THE PRICE WAS SURELY GOING UP FROM THAT TEST AFTER THE SPRING. Click PLAY and you'll see what I mean.
I'm about to begin work on the "Chart Posting Spree." While I'm working, let me provide an example of what I mean by margin trading events. One must be choosy about WHICH EVENTS they choose to margin trade. Meaning, I personally would want to keep risks as low as possible depending on the level of experience with using these indicators.
For instance, if one did not have much experience with the indicators and thought of margin trading the "Spring" event upward a piece to then short it on the way down to the "Test," it would be risky to do so if not paying close attention the entire time to know when to change from a long position to a short position at or near the top before it came down to the "Test."
It's LESS risky to choose a margin trade in other EVENTS with LARGER movements between each event.
This 12-Day TF looks very similar to the 14-Day (2-Week) TF. So, I did not change the text much within the bubbles in that regard. I did change the LEVELS of the Purple Ghost and the Green Line.
Now back to my chart to do the 1080m (18h) TF...
Some of you may have probably held while waiting for $8,910.32 to $9,367.68 range to arrive. Very possible some of you did. Which is why I have also been encouraging everyone to use Godmode to keep an eye on multiple time frames like I'm doing WHEN I ACTUALLY HAVE THE TIME TO.
I have so much going on at the moment with the following:
Baby sitting my son while my wife stays with her mother to help her during her recovery from hip replacement surgery and breaking her arm as well when she fell. She's 82 years old. Which means, I have to be at his beck-and-call when he needs something to drink, eat, etc... He's 7 years old.
I'm selling rigs on eBay and have ran into one hick-up after another calling eBay to resolve issues. I've called eBay 3 times just today. I'm sure I will be calling them more in the near future. WHY? Because I'm slowly selling approximately 225 Graphics Cards.
I'm working on training material for a website and other things in regards to that website that I'm keeping secret for now. More information about that website will follow in the next 30 to 60 days.
There's a few other things I could mention as well. Such as re-organizing my office and cleaning it up to get it ready for mounting to large screen 4K televisions for training purposes, etc...
When my mother-n-law is better, my wife will be home to free me up to do my work without interruptions. When my GPU's are all sold, I will have less interruptions. When my training material and other things (I'm keeping secret) are completed for a website, I will have less interruptions and FINALLY be able to devote my time to providing signals in an efficient and timely manner with less interruptions.
I simply have a lot going on while trying to juggle providing halfway decent updates when I have the time to do so. Some of you may believe this. Some of you may not. Some may think I'm simply making up excuses. If that's the case, you're welcome to believe whatever you want to believe. I'm fine with that.
It's also IMPORTANT to realize the following:
Things can change in an analysis; especially when provided well in advance. Ask the professional FOREX traders. They will tell you they have closed (canceled) a trade many times due to circumstances arising after a call they made well in advance.
Bottom line: When I'm FINALLY free to do my work with less interruptions; I believe you will find my analysis to be more accurate than most. I'm not saying that to be braggadocios. I'm simply providing my opinion...
The 720m (12h) TF will be following shortly.
This may be providing too much at one time but I feel it's necessary. The following publication provides a links with BASIC information on Wyckoff Method of Analysis. You will also find a link to "FREE" ebooks on trading. Be sure to search Richard Wyckoff in that FREE link. However, PLEASE make sure to go to the first two links I provide first for a BASIC explanation of Wyckoff Method:
Here is the 360m TF. I want to point out I did not delete or alter the scribble I placed in the 720m TF after switching to the 360m TF. You are seeing the scribble untouched from the 720m TF.
We will know more once we have reversal and see where it goes.
Going back to sleep.
Instead of $7,364.52, the price came down to $7,451.00 and appears to have found bottom. Of course this is not 100% certain but looking likely.
The 180m chart I posted 6 hours ago showed the Red Line and Blue LSMA touching Green Line WHILE it was moving up AFTER going below 20% level.
Now, the 360m chart shows the Red Line and Blue LSMA touching the Green Line WHILE it was moving up AFTER going below the 20% level. This is "typically" a good time to buy but not 100% of the time. We have to take into account what is occurring in higher time frames.
I've found in order to give yourself the opportunity to make entry and exit as close to the bottom and top as possible, one has to keep themselves in the game (so to speak) by swing trading in lower TF's; such as the 360m, 180m and 90m time frames. For most people, this is not possible because this would normally require one to be a day trader with the flexibility to view their charts and implement trades at ANY time.
For the TREND trader, you may normally want to see better confirmation of a reversal to the upside or downside in higher time frames before actually exercising your entry or exit at any given time.
No matter what kind of trader you are (TRENDY or SWINGY), one should always have safeguards in place to keep losses small and gains large. Those safe guards could be a stop loss and/or alert set with constant access to those alerts and the volume all the way up.
NOTICE: I'm going to work on an "STATUS" report for TREND traders to provide when I post updates to my publications. For example:
TERM FOR TRENDY TREND (Range)
LONG TERM (2 to 4 weeks) $8,910.32 to $9,367.68
MID TERM (1 week) $8,287.57 to $8,511.26
SHORT TERM (Within 48 hours) $7,865.28 to $8,111.96
If any of you have further suggestions. PLEASE feel free to voice them.
Let me know what you think, please... ; )
The purpose for the Red block is if we take another drop down. We'll have a better idea if that will occur as we get closer and update the blocks accordingly.
If you're wondering why I did not post the 360m and 720m together in one post, it's because sometimes TIME MATTERS. I wanted to get the first chart out as soon as possible to let everyone know current market condition before elaborating on it further.
I'm expecting continued downward pressure the remainder of the week until at least Sunday, August 5th. We will have to see how much the price action goes up afterward to know whether or not this downward pressure will continue into the 2-Day TF.
Here's a look at the 45 minute (45m) TF:
The 45m TF once again simply to show the progress since the last time I posted it. Also to inform you I'm about to get out to pay the power bill, pick up my son from his mother-n-law's house and take him to the park to give him some time playing outside.
45m TF and 90m TF: We may have a brief dip down soon; based on the 45m TF coming close to topping out and exhausting.
Have a look at the 45m TF now: We are still within the RANGE identified with the colored 24 hour blocks. We're still waiting for "confirmation" of reversal from downside pressure to upside pressure. Preferably with the Daily (1440m) and 2-Day TF's.
Here's the 45m TF to show you how it was used to identify another dip was coming and in fact came about. Note how the Red Line and Blue LSMA touched the Green Line WHILE the Green Line was coming down; indicating downward pressure incoming. Most importantly, that contact took place with the Red Line above the 80% level.
45m (0.75h) TF: This upcoming dip in the 45m TF will only be brief in my opinion.
quite obvious now this will be a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #2
That's where I've had my Red arrow going down to for a while on the chart.
I was hoping this was only a brief down then back up. However, I'm beginning to have second thoughts on this. More of my opinion IN DETAIL will be provided shortly. In the mean time, here's the Daily TF:
Also have a look at the 2-Day, 3-Day and 4-Day TF's:
$6,743.20 is the next stop and we'll see what the indicators look like. Still definitely downward pressure reigns.
How many sizeable shorts are sitting there with SL?
I use Godmode as you explained how it worked and I really liked it. The fact is that sometimes it turns the other way around, you think it goes up, and suddenly, it turns again. Also, I’ve seen the slower lines trying to touch each other, cross, and go up, and suddenly, they change their direction pointing downwards. One thing is sure... The slower lines go to oversold and overbought zones, and from there, I thought about this idea playing out. Monthly Godmode is still going down, and ghost can do as it did in 2014. It goes from bottom to the middle, and down again, what makes me think it will do the same this year.
I leave you my idea here. It touches the same point I’ve found by other methods, around 2.5 - 2.6k.
I know you maybe don’t agree with me, but I keep seeing it although I see others’ ideas.
Stoch RSI can remain there for some time, and there’s a divergence from 2014 to 2018 if you check the RSI and the price.
I’ve drawn the possible pattern the red and the orange lines will draw.
Thanks for sharing your "idea," Andbcoin. MUCH APPRECIATED!!! I'll have a look at the monthly and lower TF's; such as the 21-Day, 18-Day and 15-Day to see as well.
Keep publishing, please! ;)
The same back at cha, Andbcoin. Keep posting, please!
Thanks so much, ProwdClown.
I'll provide one for ETHUSDT later this evening.