On March I published the following idea, that Bitcoin's underlying pattern was a Channel Up:
In my opinion, that made (and of course still makes) perfect sense, as after the previous Bear Market ended, BTC is in search of an accumulation platform to take it to the next parabolic Bull Phase.
On May I updated that idea, calling that the consolidation at the time was a signal of an upcoming bullish break-out:
** The current post-Golden Cross fractal ** What I am focusing on this time (always within the Channel Up framework) is the price action after the Golden Cross in the previous Higher Low - Higher High run (December 2018 - June 2019) and the current (March 2020 - today). As you see the 2019 fractal when applied on the post May 2020 price action, it shows a smooth rise to the Higher High trend-line of the Channel Up at around $17000. What's more interesting is that it times it at the end of the year. If it plays out perfectly, expect a consolidation until early November before the final bull run.
Do you think that fractal can play out? Or have something else in mind? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!
!! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !!
BONUS MATERIAL Take a look at how fractals can give successful indications even on smaller time-frames:
I love the study and think there's some nice potential there. One thing though, 20k to 11k isn't a higher high, it should just be labelled "high". Great work though!
cosmicnexus
⋅
@BitcoinBeats, higher high is a relative term, speaks to it being higher than the other highs in the current or more recent trend.
TradingShot
⋅
@BitcoinBeats, My count on the Channel Up doesn't include 20k. It starts as you see on the chart on March 03, 2018 (funny enough was 11600 then, around where we trade now). I shouldn't have labelled it a 'Higher High' since it was the first High, but I wanted people to see where the beginning was.
Hamilton_Gilpin
⋅
@TradingShot, Fair enough, bro, either way very nice idea, I'd definitely expect this to come into fruition!
cosmicnexus
⋅
Hey TS, what's your logic in using that 2/18/18 high as the starting point for your upper trend line?
TradingShot
⋅
@cosmicnexus, Basically the intention was to use March 03 but yes the line go a little more to the left. Essentially the first Higher High was June 26, 2019 but I drawn the line starting from March 03 to show how perfectly it fits the Channel. It goes without saying that until the December 2018 bottom, BTC was still within a bear market.
cosmicnexus
⋅
@TradingShot, ok thanks for the 'splainer... some further food for thought: if you used the real first HH on 6/26/19 then you'd have to tip that upper trend line down on the right so it meets the HH set here in August 2020. The HL lower trend line would then need be adjusted to a similar time frame starting with the HL on/about 2/7/19, and then tracing across the March '20 COVID crash (ignoring it) to the HL's on the other side of it, perhaps the one on 4/17/20... this would give us an acute triangle with an immanent breakout fairly soon one way or the other. With the current bullish trend the probabilities are that it will likely break-out to the upside. Your thoughts on this?
omidamraei
⋅
I think 10985 is the entry point.
TradingShot
⋅
@Amraei, You mean you expect a pull back to that entry point for the 17k target?
omidamraei
⋅
@TradingShot, Yes, where almost Fib 382 is. What do you think?