ronfkingswanson
Long

Nearing reversal, forget finding perfect bottoms, just buckle up

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Yes, other folks are calling for endless doom, like we're stuck in the ATH bear channel forever until $2K. I think we already reversed at $6K, as evidenced by the formations (and lack of retraces) in the rally that followed up to $11,700. Now we've retraced that pump all the way back to the magic 0.705 OTE zone, and are primed for the next run up. Could we drop a little further? to the 0.764? more?? sure -- but you're better off dollar cost averaging your buys down here instead of chasing the PERFECT bottom, only to get stuck in the gutter as the rocket leaves the launch pad. So I'm quite happy to have bought $7700, and will buy again $7350 and $6950 -- because going up from here, on the right wing of this harmonic pattern , I'm not going to look back and care that much about a few hundred dollars at the entry point :P

As for timing - we're finishing this descending wedge , and falling until something kicks the market. And right now the looming "news event" (which often causes the market to stall in anticipation) is the G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors in Argentina on Monday the 19th. It seems that cryptocurrency will be on the agenda.

So just like the senate hearings, where the world waited and held its breath, dumping alllllll the way up to the fateful day only to have nothing but positive news from the hearing itself -- we're still slumping in this wedge . The 19th provides the perfect intersection of rising trendlines , the 0.764 retrace fib, and this selloff, making $7350 my favorite entry point, but holding some reserve bids at $6950 as well, just in case bears try to spook the market by breaking a few trendlines at the last second and stop hunting. All it will take is the slightest whiff of favorable news from the world's finance misters, praising the blockchain or at least NOT banning crypto, to light the rocket.

Throughout this selloff, I've been forecasting and trading reversals based on the 0.705 OTE retrace (no, it's not a proper fib ratio). This has been dependable enough that I'm confident to buy in this zone, and to sell when we reach 14-16K. Here's a few examples of this retrace in action (many are too small to be seen on this daily scale, see related charts below):


NOTE -- if your purpose in commenting below is just to spam your own charts (thinking you'll get more attention here) and shout me down, please do us all a favor, and go away. Contrary interpretations are always welcome, just don't be a dick about it
Mar 18
Trade active: 4H view, with an estimate of when G20 conference news might hit. Just went with noon Argentina time (I think). That's enough time for them to get their coffee and drop a press release. Inside this descending wedge, that gives us a little tiny room for up to 8K at most, then the timing would intersect with the wedge bottom at 7200.
Mar 18
Trade active: 15min view, with us working on the ABC correction from this last 5-wave impulse down. And no, I'm not an Elliot guy at all, so don't crucify my wave count :P
Mar 19
Trade active: it would seem 7250 was the magic number ;) that's looking like a solid rebound developing
Mar 23
Trade active: bulls continue to crush bear dreams, next battle 10K, where we wrestle with the major downtrend line that has denied the bulls before
Mar 23
Trade active: we were stuck inside the 4H cloud during this minor pullback. Bulls too eager to even allow a solid retrace to a full 50%, and we popped out the cloud top
Mar 29
Trade active: bitcoin loves nothing more than a full rally retrace. make you question every moonish hope you have, shake out all your coins -- and then finally take off once you've already given up :P So maybe this is what the path looks like now. Yes, trendlines broke -- but I've held through enough fakeouts to know that trendlines are not sacred. If this 6900 zone doesn't hold, time to reconsider. But for now, 7300 was still a great entry. Hold onto your butts, expect whiplash
Mar 29
Trade active: And just for reference - seems we finally reached the low target of my original series at 6.9K, just took a little bounce trip to get there ;)

if the above harmonic reflection chart plays out, we're still quite capable of reaching 14.5K mid-April
55k views, you need to say sorry at least :)
+2 Reply
this is an awesome pullback. I am picking up tens of thousands in my favorite alts and beefing up the majors LTC, XRP, ETH. this is a gift! the crypto market keeps giving and giving.
+1 Reply
A break and hold below 6600 will target 5480 within a week.
+2 Reply
It mirrors the first one, it didnt go straight down either it had a short detour off to the side. I think you may be right!
+1 Reply
15k in mid april... so fast?
+1 Reply
@siwe7, maybe not so fast. I'm just drawing the points based on symmetry, nothing else. I'm sure it won't be quite so tidy
+1 Reply
siwe7 ronfkingswanson
@ronfkingswanson, well, we are at around two thirds of the target. maybe we reach it at the and of april, if the bull run continues. i guess you were sort of right in the overall contex. :)
also, for me it looks like a cup & handle pattern currently. but its hard to define the handle. maybe it is still not building.
Reply
Just realistic, Real analysis, not competing like others. Thumbs up Ron!
+2 Reply
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