Hey guys. Bitcoin will probably go down until the ratio of 24 hr 0.04% volume over total crypto market cap reaches 10 percent (or 0.1). These values are available on top of the coinmarketcap.com website. Currently, the 24 hr 0.04% volume is $18.3 billion and the total crypto market cap is $324 billion. The ratio of them is 5.6% (0.056). As the price goes down, the volume will go up because the buyers will get excited to buy cheap coins. Therefore, a good assumption is, from here, as the price goes down, the volume will go up proportionally until the ratio becomes equal to 0.1. Therefore, the target bottom market cap can be obtained as (Current market cap + 10*current 24hr volume) /2 = (324+10*18.3) /2 which gives us target bottom market cap equal to $254 billion. This market cap is interestingly equivalent of bitcoin -1.49% price of $6300 if we assume BTC -1.49% share of the market will not change until then. Using a method independent of charts, we can get updated estimate of bitcoin possible bottom price at any moment. I will keep some cash to buy bitcoin when the ratio reaches 0.1 :) I will keep you updated on this stupid idea. The target bottom price changes every moment. You should update it for yousrself using the formula I gave you. Please follow me, like the post, or comment on my stupid idea. Good luck trading.
Disclaimer: If you assume this stupid idea is a financial advice, then you probably have some serious problems :)))) Quit trading now!
Comment
⋅
Since bitcoin dropped from 20k, we always (with no exception) had a bull run on Fridays. I just wanted to let you know of this.
Big dumping going on at Gdax. Lots of people getting suckered into buying. This is easy money for bears. They will continue to do this until BTC can't go any lower.
Esmaeel
⋅
@rev214us, exactly
kardia
⋅
Be careful. It could go lower (by thousands). If I were to set a buy order at 6k, it would only be 50% of what I plan to invest, and I would use a stop loss. If there is a strong indication it will continue to be bullish, I will add more later. This is not financial advice, of course. :)
Esmaeel
⋅
Thank you very much for your comment. I completely agree with you. We should never go all in when buying cryptos. Our crypto portfolio has to always have some cash ready at all times. Also, it is better to buy when the price is going up not when it is sharply going down in short timeframes. Waiting few minutes to buy when it is going up can save your portfolio.
kardia
⋅
@Esmaeel, See how they push the price up a few hundred and then dump their coins on unsuspecting buyers? Bait and switch. These bears know what they are doing.
Esmaeel
⋅
@rev214us, Yes. That is why I wait for a large volume. When the volume is higher, it is harder to manipulate the market and you get fewer surprises. I learned all these, the hard way by real trading and real cash :D
kardia
⋅
@Esmaeel, Yep; I made my fair share of mistakes, which I have learned from but sometimes foolishly repeat. Lol
Esmaeel
⋅
@rev214us, lol. so true. I still make many mistakes and repeat some of my previous mistakes. I think it has more to do with psychological skills than with trading skills. It is hard to not get excited and it is actually very important to stay calm. I am working on it. But still a long way to go :D
NachoGM
⋅
Es curiosa tu teoría. Si te comprendí bien: ¿estamos ahora mismo en 0,018?
Esmaeel
⋅
@NachoGM, We are now at 0.048. I think we did not see the bottom yet and will go down again until we get to the ratio of 0.1.