Policy Winds: Rate Cut Expectations Dominate, Liquidity Easing Expectations Intensify
The Federal Reserve’s December FOMC meeting (scheduled for December 9-10) has entered the final window, with market expectations for a rate cut surging to a high of 87% Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Major investment banks including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have confirmed a high degree of certainty for a 25-basis-point cut in December .
Dovish officials continue to send clear signals. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly emphasizes that the risk of labor market deterioration outweighs the rebound of inflation, warning of the "non-linear" collapse risk of the currently fragile job market . Fed Governor Christopher Waller also publicly supports a December rate cut, framing it as a "sound risk management" measure to curb further labor market weakness and ease pressure on low- and middle-income households .
U.S. economic data shows a "moderate cooling" trend: monthly retail sales and durable goods orders have slowed, and manufacturing performance remains lackluster, providing real-world support for the rate cut . Bitcoin has a significant negative correlation of -0.75 with the U.S. Dollar Index — the recent weakening of the dollar directly benefits crypto assets.
While some hawkish officials within the Fed worry about inflation spread, the policy inertia after two consecutive rate cuts has aligned with market expectations . This synergy forms the core policy support for Bitcoin’s short-term upside.
Bitcoin trading strategy
buy：88500-89500
tp:91000-92000
sl：87500
The Federal Reserve’s December FOMC meeting (scheduled for December 9-10) has entered the final window, with market expectations for a rate cut surging to a high of 87% Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Major investment banks including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have confirmed a high degree of certainty for a 25-basis-point cut in December .
Dovish officials continue to send clear signals. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly emphasizes that the risk of labor market deterioration outweighs the rebound of inflation, warning of the "non-linear" collapse risk of the currently fragile job market . Fed Governor Christopher Waller also publicly supports a December rate cut, framing it as a "sound risk management" measure to curb further labor market weakness and ease pressure on low- and middle-income households .
U.S. economic data shows a "moderate cooling" trend: monthly retail sales and durable goods orders have slowed, and manufacturing performance remains lackluster, providing real-world support for the rate cut . Bitcoin has a significant negative correlation of -0.75 with the U.S. Dollar Index — the recent weakening of the dollar directly benefits crypto assets.
While some hawkish officials within the Fed worry about inflation spread, the policy inertia after two consecutive rate cuts has aligned with market expectations . This synergy forms the core policy support for Bitcoin’s short-term upside.
Bitcoin trading strategy
buy：88500-89500
tp:91000-92000
sl：87500
Trade active
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💹💹💹Trading strategies and analysis: Gold, BTC, crude oil, foreign exchange, etc.
📶📶📶Free trading signals：t.me/+EbXVM-CStnFmNjBk
📶📶📶Free trading signals：t.me/+EbXVM-CStnFmNjBk
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.