Welcome friends, foes, animals, aliens, my family of crypto lovers, to this update analysis on Bitcoin! Let's get it! Today, my friends, we're going to delve into something that is truly a spectacular occurrence in technical analysis. That is the presence of fractals! In case you don't know, fractals are generally defined as geometric shapes, that fully or nearly represent the whole. According to fractal market hypothesis, fractals can be expressed in markets, and I am a firm believer of that. In the case of Bitcoin, there is an incredible fractal pattern, that I have been following for over a week now. It is getting a bit extended, but that doesn't mean that it won't continue. So, without further ado, let's check out this incredible phenomenon.
On the chart, you can see that there are four blue frames, each labeled fractals 1-3. The price movements inside of these frames are incredibly similar to each other. This unmistakable mirror-like repetition, is a fractal expression in BTC. When patterns like this emerge, they can be very valuable in projecting the future movement of the market. However, they are also a double sided sword, in the sense that they can end unexpectedly.
As a refresher on these fractal expressions that I've been covering, I'll walk you through it from the beginning. However, before we start, please note that fractal #1 is slightly different than fractal #2 and #3. With that said, let's begin.
Fractal #1 starts with a big bear flag which produced a small breakdown (pink arrow,) followed by a rally above the 50 EMA (purple arc,) followed by a bear flag that dropped below the 20 EMA (in blue.)
Fractal #2 began with a bear flag, which produced a breakdown (pink arrow,) followed by a rally above the 50 EMA (purple arc,) followed by a bear flag that dropped below the 20 EMA. Then, that flag produced a small breakdown, (this is where the original expression changed) which reversed to the upside, and then produced a (spike) above the 20 EMA. Then, price failed to stay above the EMAs, and a small bear flag was formed.
Fractal #3 is nearly identical to Fractal #2. It began with a big bear flag, which produced a small breakdown (pink arrow,) followed by a rally above the 50 EMA (purple arc,) followed by a bear flag that dropped below the 20 EMA. Then, that flag produced a small breakdown, which reversed to the upside, and then produced a (spike) above the 20 EMA. Then, price failed to stay above the EMAs, and a now we're in a bear flag. Albeit, a very extended bear flag, but regardless, it's the exact same bear flag that ended Fractal #2, just before the breakdown into Fractal #3.
With that said, things are changing a bit here. In the current bear flag, you can see that it's starting to get a bit long in the tooth. If you can tell, subtle changes have emerged that are different from what we've seen in the recent past. In particular, this bear flag that we're in, has managed to not break down when the 20 EMA (in blue) passed through it's body. That means it's the first bear flag, out of the past 8 that didn't break down from a intersection with the 20 EMA. So, that is definitely noteworthy. Additionally, you can see that price action has poked above the top of the newly formed downtrend channel (in dashes) and it's currently flirting with the 50 EMA (in orange.) Regardless, the pattern that I've been following still stands strong. These developments are not ideal, but the pattern still remains. If we see a breakout to the upside from this bear flag, that would change the progression of the fractal. However, as I've just shown with the prior examples, fractals can change slightly, and then follow the same general path. However, if this bear flag fails, I would consider the pattern dead. After all, we are at the end of fractal #3. Fractal #4 is not guaranteed.
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From here, I expect a breakdown to emerge, producing the next expression of the fractal. If that occurs, and we do get a fourth fractal, we can assume that a breakdown from the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern (in red) will be the result.
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-Magic loves you-
-JD-
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WOW Bitcoin just exploded above the top of the downtrend channel, but it has reversed back below. If BTC closes and confirms above the downtrend channel, that would be a very bullish sign. However, a failure could be the final rejection before a breakdown of the larger head and shoulders pattern.
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Isn't it crazy how that happened right as the third fractal ended? Incredible.
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Every last attempt to rally above the downtrend channel has failed. Based on that, and the fact that the trend is my friend, my bias remains to the downside. Therefore, I expect a failure, unless I see evidence that proves otherwise.
@gegene, goes to show you how well TA works in crypto
JonathanNg44
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im not a fan of poop, but i have to come to his defence since ive seen so many negative and personal attacks on him.
Firstly, for all you new traders, theres no sure win method of making money, no matter what u use, TA or FA or whatever.
Using TA, such as poop does, gives you an EDGE, its like betting only when you have a 20 in blackjack, even though a 20 doesnt guarantee you a winner if the banker draws a 21.
I think you guys should stop attacking him personally, he may not be correct all the time or he cld simply not be correct YET. He doesnt have a crystal ball.
Im saying all these because i feel it is important for you newer traders to understand the point i just made, even if you are using your own strategy, you cannot expect to be correct all the time, you have to possess the
mental and emotional capacity to be wrong and more importantly truely understand what is an EDGE and what is PROBABILITY.
Cheers and happy trading guys.
morningcrypto
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Looks like you were majorly WRONG!!!!! lol hahahashashahhahahahah