Through observing the bitcoin market for a number of years, a lot of money is made in the parabolic moves up yet also during the aggressive pullbacks. Historically, after a bitcoin a pump there's always been a return to the 200 EMA (normally quite quickly) accounting for ~35-40% drop.
Elliott Wave analysis signals we're coming to the end of wave 3, which should take us to $5,000. Respecting the cycle of ~40% pullbacks, we should see capitulation to $3,000; then the 5th wave should take us $10,000. This is a psychologically very attractive take profit area for investors on a large scale. If Elliott Wave is correct this would complete a larger 3rd wave (1st being to 1.1k back in 2013; 2nd being the pullback to ~$200 ending at the start of 2015), and a large 4th wave correction could provide a bear market over an extended period with price targets around the $2,500 area.
Following the curve upwards, with the 200 EMA providing support - I would find it very surprising to see the BTC rally stopping anytime soon; and long term investors should be happy holding as long as they have strong enough hands to ride the regular shakeouts in the BTC market.
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Wave 3 of wave 3 seems to have completed, now time for the standard 35-40% drop bringing us back down to the 3000s before we resume the uptrend to higher highs!
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Correction target hit!
Perfect 40% measured move to complete an ABC correction. Now time for the fifth wave of the larger wave 3. Either a double top at 5k, or a move to ATH!
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Wave 3 is close to finishing on my count - maybe one last leg up but r/r buying here isn't attractive. Chart above shows ambitious targets, but a retest of 4800-5000 seems reasonable; having said that we could see some serious sell offs after the run we've had this year. Another viable move is creating a large ranging triangle to consolidate before tackling higher highs.
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Exhibit B
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Previously calling tops too soon, but this is looking likely to fall imo
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nice sell off since last update which was followed by a near complete retrace. Looking at previous pullbacks this is a plausible situation...a more advisable trade is to wait for a breakout confirmation // waiting to buy a dip when it comes
Nice. 3000 was hit, and bounced. As you predicted. :) 4h RSI seems to also indicate price is beginning to go up. Hoping it will reach 5000 before November. And go down again before/during the hard-fork.
GMOMutation
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@nafnar, I think it will drop a lil more. I think the time-frame doesn't necessarily support the current bottom, IMO.
GMOMutation
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@GMOMutation, furthermore the Chinese market crash/regulation may have moved things prematurely.
mihaab
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everything a bit quicker than what u predicted
Aitoyko
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Thanks for the update. What's the time frame for the drop to the 3000s?
kjmb1
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@Aitoyko, looks like a we are moving quickly; wave C tends to cascade as well