Bitcoin - I have to play it, the way I see it.

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
732 17
As much as I hate being bearish on Bitcoin , too many negative signals are showing up for me to go long.

1) We are in a strong downtrending channel, and are currently near the top of it.
2) A large potential Head and Shoulders pattern is forming.
3) The market maker sell model is in full swing.
4) The hype train has been going at full speed these last few weeks: GBTC live, Circle / GS investment, Coinbase in the UK, Alphapoint exchange upgrade etc. With bullish headlines like these behind us, upward momentum could fizzle out.

I have started building a short position in the high $230s, and am looking to add more if we get closer to $240.
Although we had a significant short squeeze over the last two days, I am still cautious about going long. BFX short swaps have dropped down to 23,654 BTC and BFX USD longs have risen to $25,772,230. I also noticed that we have formed a potential bearish Wolfe Wave pattern. Unfortunately, I got stopped out of my short position at $246, however I will remain in cash until get more clarity from the market. Good luck everyone!
Turco Turco
This chart got rekt
+1 Reply
Turco ImperatorNY
Almost looks like the market maker wanted to spite me, and punched a green candle right through that red X. On a serious note, We broke through the channel for a short time at $300, but were quick to fall back into it. Lets see what the next few days bring us.
i agree its important to trade what you see and leave emotions out of it. I hate being bearish on BTC also.
+1 Reply
Turco cloudichimoku
Lol, it's hard sometimes.
+1 Reply
Good chart and explanation!

I think somewhere around $220-$224 is the bottom for this drop if the price falls, but let's see.
Turco ChartArt
Yea, I think at those levels I would probably close some of my shorts. Thanks for the feedback.
ChartArt ChartArt
So basically I see the potential support area where you drew the first green box of the ' market maker' model. My overall theory for the next days is more along the lines of MagnusTradingGroup:

Turco ChartArt
Definitely possible, however these pullbacks quite often seem to move a bit lower than expected.
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