Turco
Short

Bitcoin - I have to play it, the way I see it.

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
674 17 11
As much as I hate being bearish on Bitcoin , too many negative signals are showing up for me to go long.

1) We are in a strong downtrending channel, and are currently near the top of it.
2) A large potential Head and Shoulders pattern is forming.
3) The market maker sell model is in full swing.
4) The hype train has been going at full speed these last few weeks: GBTC             live, Circle / GS             investment, Coinbase in the UK, Alphapoint exchange upgrade etc. With bullish headlines like these behind us, upward momentum could fizzle out.

I have started building a short position in the high $230s, and am looking to add more if we get closer to $240.
ChartArt
2 years ago
Good chart and explanation!

I think somewhere around $220-$224 is the bottom for this drop if the price falls, but let's see.
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Turco ChartArt
2 years ago
Yea, I think at those levels I would probably close some of my shorts. Thanks for the feedback.
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ChartArt ChartArt
2 years ago
So basically I see the potential support area where you drew the first green box of the ' market maker' model. My overall theory for the next days is more along the lines of MagnusTradingGroup:

snapshot
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Turco ChartArt
2 years ago
Definitely possible, however these pullbacks quite often seem to move a bit lower than expected.
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Turco ChartArt
2 years ago
To add to that comment...I can see a move to $215, and if that breaks a test of $200.
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ChartArt Turco
2 years ago
We are at a major turning point this month. I see either $220 holding and then a slow grind up to $300.

Or if we break $210, then I expect the price to go south really hard. Down to maybe $85-$100 in a few months.
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Turco ChartArt
2 years ago
Maybe...for now I will trade within this downtrending channel. Obviously if the bottom or top of it breaks with conviction, I will reassess my strategy.
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ChartArt Turco
2 years ago
The major turning point is also the reason why I post so many short-term charts recently. I have no idea where this is going this month. We are about to break and stop the overall downtrend from 2014-2015 if we close this month above $214 (ideally above $237).

Watching this channel unfold is a good idea, yes.
+1 Reply
Turco ChartArt
2 years ago
A close above $237 at the end of May, would be a positive sign imo.
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kenzboard ChartArt
2 years ago
yep. weekly and daily chart indicators still give credence to a potential bullish outcome later this month to test 26x or 300. but...if 215/213 is violated...we could drop to 19x. From there it's either a double bottom or wayyy down.
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Turco kenzboard
2 years ago
Yea I can see this happening. However, with this strong sell-off that occurred a few hours ago, things are looking pretty bearish at the moment. If 215/213 is violated, I definitely think we will see at least $200 (and maybe a quick wick down to the high $190s).
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cloudichimoku
2 years ago
i agree its important to trade what you see and leave emotions out of it. I hate being bearish on BTC also.
+1 Reply
Turco cloudichimoku
2 years ago
Lol, it's hard sometimes.
+1 Reply
ImperatorNY
2 years ago
This chart got rekt
+1 Reply
Turco ImperatorNY
2 years ago
Almost looks like the market maker wanted to spite me, and punched a green candle right through that red X. On a serious note, We broke through the channel for a short time at $300, but were quick to fall back into it. Lets see what the next few days bring us.
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Turco
2 years ago
Although we had a significant short squeeze over the last two days, I am still cautious about going long. BFX short swaps have dropped down to 23,654 BTC and BFX USD longs have risen to $25,772,230. I also noticed that we have formed a potential bearish Wolfe Wave pattern. Unfortunately, I got stopped out of my short position at $246, however I will remain in cash until get more clarity from the market. Good luck everyone!
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Turco Turco
2 years ago
snapshot
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