The bulls are losing steam as volume diminished towards 4400 and 4500 resulting in a breakdown and a confirmed break in market structure. I will be going short in the red box indicated on the chart. This area will act as resistance as 4400 is a big level on the charts and the uptrend line that has been broken is around that level aswell. It could also be the right shoulder of a possible head and shoulders 4400-4480-4400. The pattern would suggest a move down to 3980 which is approx the 4000 level. This lines up with my longer term analysis of going long around the 4000ish level if we pullback and if a setup appears. In order for this trade to work I would like to see the lows holding with a short term reverse to the upside. I will be shorting the 4350-4400 area if all the candles seem to line up. Then I would like to see a strong rejection of the 4400ish level that ends up targeting the 4230 low in order to start the pullback towards 4000ish. Once shorts are filled around 4400ish I will look and anticipate the price very carefully in case i see signs of a reverse and new highs incoming. However the r/r for this trade seems to be great if your stops will be around 4450ish or around the high at 4480ish.
UPDATE: trade closed at the downtrendline break around 4280ish, small profit.
triton
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20% of my shorts were hit on the spike towards 4360. After seeing the strong rejection of 4350ish i continued to add towards and around 4300ish. Price definately seems to be heading down as volume is backing up the head and shoulders theory. I have additional shorts stacked 4275-4325 in case this is going to breakdown with a bearflag [descending upper line (4480-4440-4360-...) flat bottom line (4200)].
triton
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EDIT: Eventhough price made a new low around 4200ish, the analysis still remains intact. However if we drop further below 4200 I might have to dismiss this setup and cancel the shorts layered in 4350-4400. On another note, the other exchanges structures like bitstamp are still showing a very clear head and shoulders possibility. Bitfinex might be running ahead a bit too much. It remains to be seen.