Many people compare the current Descending Triangle with one we had in 2018. The difference is that the 6k to 3k drop was in a downtrend - we are still in an uptrend. Different environment.
Let’s take a look at another Descending Triangle, which happened in Summer of 2017 at the peak of a bull run. We are definitely seeing some similarities with the current one.
Pay attention to one detail which I find interesting – the 147-Day EMA. It is an imitation of the 21-Week EMA, which supported the previous bull market just amazingly well. Now it’s coming into the floor of the Descending Triangle. So, in case of the triangle breakdown, we are going to violate the 21-Week EMA. And that’s the case we get a decent wick below the 21-Week EMA.
In 2017 the same 147 EMA (but on a 12h scale) was approaching the bottom of the Descending Triangle and then got broken with the triangle breakdown.
There’s a probability of having the so-called Single Busted Descending Triangle. According to Thomas Bulkowski, if it is a Single Busted Descending Triangle, price must move less than 10%. A 10% fall would take us down to 8.3k. There is a good support around that region. Notice that in 2017 the triangle broke down and met its full target. The move was more that 10%, but nevertheless it reversed. That’s because we were in a bull market. And you know traders’ motto during bull markets: Buy The Dip! (if it actually dips).
If we are lucky enough, we’ll get a spring to shake out all weak hands before BTC takes off again. Bakkt launch is very close (Sept 23) and on Sept 27 6 moths CME Futures expire. These news events can really shake the market.
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This was perfect Buy The Dip! The price followed the downward arrow and the upward one amazingly well. Have you ever seen something better than this Buy The Dip call? I doubt
Folks, don't listen to this garbage. Here's where your judgement ought to be: If this is to be made analogous to the 2017 patter, then the appropriate time to buy is when you can confirm. Right now, we are coming off the tail end of some pretty long-winded consolidation. Buying the dip would be a horrendously bad decision because you don't know if this is the dump where everyone vacates to $7,000 or if it tucks under a bit just to sling shot into infinity. So, if you are like me and you don't give a damn one way or the other, look at "the smart buyers" of 2017 as though they were the folks that bought in at 2480-2700. Those folks came in during a retracement and were able to read tremendous volume into that swing. They had all that buying pressure beneath them to ride upward, and even then, they had no way of seeing past the horizontal movement (consolidation) that took place at 2700 again. The next thing to do is just wait. The intelligent trade would wait for the breakout to be confirmed as they broke the previous high with the most incredible tail winds carrying their position higher. All things being considered for today's movement, we have plenty of indicators pointing downward, and we have plenty of room to move down. Wait for the behavior to draw out the prospective lowest level of support after volume picks up and space out your expectations a little. This guy is selling you amateur thinking. Don't fall for it.
ReallyMe
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@thehoplite, I totally agree, except for the part, the next thing to do is just wait. The time of waiting is over. Bitcoin has already clearly decided on one direction. Those who wait now will wish tomorrow they had sold yesterday.
ReallyMe
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@ReallyMe, and so it could go on (according to my idea from 20-Sep-2019)
CryptoTraderMark10
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@ReallyMe, I actually think the whole "waiting for confirmation" idea is myth, and that's because once there's confirmation - once everyone knows what's going on - it's already too late. If "waiting for confirmation" was truly a thing then everyone would just wait and instead of 90% of traders always losing it would be 90% of traders always winning. Instead, what happens is that once there's "confirmation", everyone FOMOs and the whales, exchanges and market makers just get tons of liquidity to punish the latecomers.
ReallyMe
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@CryptoTraderMark10, There's a lot of truth to it. That is why they have become whales.
patrickfx
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@ReallyMe, bullshit mate, btc is in an uptrend since the start so dont come and talk fake news here
nagihatoum
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the wick on the 26 of may 2017 gave a hint that it will revisited, there is no such wick now, and such large dip will screw up the the bullish divergences and channels on the oscillators. there is no hint now for a large dip only to 9700. Are you basing the dip solely on the 2017 fractal?
CryptoBullet
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@nagihatoum, That's a good observation, thank you!
PTO
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Hi Bullet .
I like the idea and maybe that’s the case...
I’m reading all comments and I don’t see anyone pointing out fact that we are in totally different eco system ..
#1 current Stable coins and governments are looking in to this strategy. People use stable coins to send transactions not BTC ?
#2 Do you know who pumped that 3k Level this time ? And why they did it .
#3 Financial institutions are getting in ? ( why and .. what they did historically? )
#4 CME Q1 20 ? Doubles the size of trading options ( good or bad )
#5 Call me silly put public has PTSD after 18 and all they want it’s their $ back some got it some are still praying .
#6 Current global financial crisis coming in . ( price of BTC to high for majority to get in and if they do anything it will be safe havens and stable coins imo )
#7 FED printed more USD in last week then all crypto marked combined .
#8 How many exchanges aloud then to go short and how many we have now ?
#9 Small miners that got picked up lately from Chinas shitty equipment already dumping the equipment .
#10 Where are the best miners in the world currently located and why .. hint to question # 2 .
#11 Who pumped from 9k to 14k and dumped on retail ( if you read my posts about unfinished auctions you know )
#12 Corrupted exchanges . ( all they do it’s liquidations)
#13.And for last corporate stable coin F*#~ Calibra .......
Not trying to be bearish here but we are in totally different space these days and looking only on charts it’s not the way to try predict anything .. our space has changed drastically and offers many others options.. I hope that this plays out this way because I’m a hodler but I have a bad gut feeling lately . If we go higher even from 5k that works for me but ...
My plan is to use current BTC stack in deferent ways to create more for next couple years to come . With out putting new $ in to BTC .
Also staking it’s good backup plan .
CryptoBullet
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@PTO, Thank you for your comment! It's very deep, i like it very much. There are definitely some points to think over, including CME options launch in Q1, FED cutting the interest rates and how global crisis will affect Bitcoin (but I think we have some time left before it). Maybe I'll cover some of these questions in next ideas or in our telegram channel.