Bitcoin Halving History And Predictions

Cryptohopper Newsletter

BTC has continued its rebound, and it is now 90% up from its lows this year at 3,800$. With the halving about a month away, many BTC enthusiasts and investors expect the price of the asset to continue its uptrend. Today we will examine the past two halvings and give out our predictions for how the third halving will play out based on the past data.

Without further due, let’s take a look at the previous halvings and at our predictions for the third!

First Halving
The first Bitcoin halving occurred on November 25th, 2012. The price of Bitcoin before the halving was only 12$. After the halving, the price increased by more than 9,000% to 1,160$ in about 1 year. This was followed by an 86% market crash over the course of 420 days. After a long period of consolidation of about 300 days, the price started to increase again before the next halving.

Let's now take a look and see how similar or different the price behaved during the second halving.

Second Halving
The second Bitcoin halving occurred on July 9th, 2016. The price of Bitcoin before the halving was only 650$ (half of the previous high). After the halving, the price increased by almost 3,000% (only a third compared to the other one) to 19,500$ in about a year and a half. This was followed by an 84% market crash over 364 days. After a shorter period of consolidation of just over 100 days, the price started to increase again before the next halving. Sounds similar? Well, that’s because it is. The price followed an almost exact pattern from the first halving.

We will now move on to our predictions of the third halving based on the data gathered from the previous two.

Third Halving
The third halving is set to occur on May the 13th. If the third halving will follow the other two, then the price of Bitcoin should be around 9,000$-10,000$ around the time of the second halving (half of the last high). After the second halving, the price should increase by about 1,000% if it is to follow the tradition of increasing 3 times less than the previous halving. If all of the previous statements turn out to be true, then we could expect BTC to reach around 90,000$-100,000$ after the third halving. The price should then follow a correction of around 80% down to 20,000$.

In short:
We expect the price to be around 9,000$-10,000$ around May 13th.
We expect BTC to reach around 90,000$-100,000$ at its next peak.
We expect the price to follow a correction down to 20,000$.

These are of course our expectations based on how the price behaved over the previous 2 halvings. The price won’t necessarily occur following the exact steps we displayed here. As with technical analysis in general: the price tends to follow historical patterns but it doesn’t have to.

If the price will behave similarly to the first two halvings, then trend-following indicators will be very useful in identifying the trend and riding to the moon. Join us on Cryptohopper today and take advantage of the next halving by automating your trading.

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