A lot of hype, most of us are waiting for the big event of SEC approval, the first deadline should be tomorrow. It all would seem very easy, there is the approval and Bitcoin price goes up, straight up, indefinitely... right? But who would be those that would start buying at this price? retail investors have been placing their bets for a long time already, fearing of being left out. Those offering the ETFs would find this a very risky price, which definitely needs correction. They have probably been buying bitcoin at lower prices anyway, already. To me this seems like the perfect "sell the news" situation.
Technically at 48k there is fibonacci 0.618 from the ATH, plus a major resistance. Price is also finding itself at the top of the upward channel. RSI signals bearish divergences.
I have also noticed that after 2017 peak, the price also rebounded to 0.618... this doesn't say that it will happen again, of course, nor that it will NOT happen. But it would seem very strange to me, that after peaking at 68k and going to the bottom at 16k, Bitcoin would just go straight up again with no correction, as if it's just "straight up" or "straight down". That's not how markets work.
My price prediction is depicted in the chart, with the price possibly going to 30k to find then a strong rebound, making everyone think that the correction is over only to get them trapped in the net and to proceed more south, possibly around 16-20k. The red trendline at the bottom comes from the two bottoms of 2017 and of the Covid crash.
Im thinking the same thing your thinking. However, I am not to sure about the timing. Do you think this will all happen before the halving date?
walkerjitzu
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@darrenlall, in my opinion it will start going down in a couple of weeks max. At that point the halving will be bad news because it will increase difficulty and so the breakeven mining price will be higher. So that could probably trigger more sells and more despair in general in the crypto world. But that's just my 2 cents of course. What is your view?
darrenlall
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@walkerjitzu, Oh and the exact top is in today exactly at 5000 on SPX. im shorting this tomorrow morning
darrenlall
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I'm just waiting for the bottom around the time of the halving date so I can go long. I didn't trust trust the bottom was 15k back in January. I'll probably rely on a few specific indicators to scoop up the bottom. On the monthly, we completed the five wave impulse wave. And if I am right, we're about to complete the "C" leg of the ABC corrective wave. I personally believe we'll get a bottom around April 22, 2024. what are your thoughts?
walkerjitzu
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@darrenlall, if my view is correct, I think Bitcoin is about the enter a longer bearish cycle. "A" bottom could happen around mid year, but I have no idea when "the" bottom could be in. As I said, I personally don't believe the halving is inherently good news. Like ETFs, a lot of hype, a lot of crypto fans lurked in. About SPX, 5000 seems too obvious as a point of reversion, it could spike more up until around 5200