I agree with this assessment – take note of the daily RSI trend. We just touched the trend line and starting to pull back. I imagine things will start to turn south after the daily candle close.
UnknownUnicorn5511258
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@rmsutton, yeah, im thinking we may see an after-hours equity free-for-all as well. just need some popcorn..
rmsutton
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@Perma_Pig, and so it begins…
WTFpattern
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@Perma_Pig, seems like there is an unofficial floor around 30k. Tales flying all over about banks and institutions buying at that level, who knows, but I think there might need to be a black swan on the pond in order for it to dive too far below 30k.
UnknownUnicorn5511258
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@WTFpattern, eh, i think youre overthinking this. as I see it, bitcoin is being primed for this equity crash's scapegoat. I've noticed that it moves with stocks, for better or worse these days.
my guess is that this 30k magic floor gets taken out the second stocks print 2%+ daily loss.
to debunk the institutional buying theory, BTC isn't showing the kind of volume that would imply institutional accumulation. Plus, the moves upward from big block buys would put more pressure on the short term resistance of 37k. the fact that 40k hasn't been close to touched thus far should tell you that a secular bull market isn't coming (since one just ended).
bottom line: 17-22k is my target - then its 106k if it is to make the final swing up.
bottom line 2: wait til it breaks and holds 40k on the daily before long entry. you will miss out on 10k in exchange for a stress-free entry + a large enough move where you can dismiss the 10k as negligible.
hope this helps.
WTFpattern
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@Perma_Pig, I agree on the volume, I have been playing the swings to accumulate as well and keeping some cash at hand in case either the move below 30k or above 40k holds. Its a tricky time as there is evidence of increasing adoption but at the same time a lot of bearish indication on the charts.
I have been waiting for the correction on stocks for months, but I also think TINA keeps the bubble up until the FED raises rates and they have said they will hold them until 2022 I believe. A whole lot of factors seem to be moving in opposite directions and leaving a lot of room for interpretation. DXY is holding on better than I thought it would, economic activity has certainly picked back up, but P/Es are still very high and prices of goods are all elevated indicating inflation is rising, but I plan on waiting a few more months before setting that notion in stone, as this could be a high demand period of catch up from the pandemic shutdowns.
UnknownUnicorn5511258
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@WTFpattern, to be honest, i find it easier to not think so much about the "why" part of markets right now. There are too many things in play that lead to logical contradictions, in terms of price action.
Ive been of the belief for some time now, that gold and silver are simply patiently waiting for bitcoin and stocks to rotate out. This idea is very much still in play. One thing that Ive noticed though, is that the DOW futures are for sure pinned to Gold futures (as if more price manipulation is even possible). Further, the DIA etf and GLD etf are likewise pinned in an asymmetric fashion - except that it is only favorable for the Dow. In other words, in order to prevent the gov't/Fed's worst nightmare of gold soaring and stocks collapsing, this pinning works perfectly. If the Dow tanks, so does gold, so not the worst case scenario for the people in power.
Of course, they cannot control markets to a permanent extent, which is why we had limit down days in 2020. The effect that the Fed has on markets is laughably overstated.
I know I'm getting off track here for someone who began his post with "I find it easier not to think so much," but this is the entire underpinning of my logic going in to any market day. Basically, thinking more broadly than this would make it nearly impossible to trade because of the inherent contradictions and reluctance to feel confident with entering any position in any cross-correlated major asset.
I agree with the things mentioned, especially the commentary on dollar strength and valuations. Imo, continued dollar strength with subtle signs of accumulation will be the silent killer this time around, especially since growth valuations are simply beyond statistically significant outcomes in a normally distributed market. Of course, the market does not yield normal outcomes, but there is still a mean, and there is still an underlying tendency to come back to that mean.
Thoughts on trade ideas that are largely immune to movements equities, crypto, metals and the dollar?
WTFpattern
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@Perma_Pig, I have been watching crypto much closer and have rotated my 401k and individual equities into more steady/safe plays than riskier growth plays expecting a correction or regression toward the mean. I won't be an elevator shaft drop, it might be a yearlong sideways chop or slow bleed downward as the initial re-opening rush wears off. I think we chop for a few months, the company I work for is cancelling orders because we can't make all of them even if things went perfectly for the next 6 months.
Gold and silver I can't make heads or tails about, maybe your manipulation theory has something to do with it, maybe it is no longer seen as I was taught hard assets are utilized as hedges. I have been very reluctant to enter into either lately.
Crypto I think has a little more room to correct, but not too much more, given the everyday snippets of adoption, the crypto prices are starting to settle in to what I hope will be a lower volatility and slower bull run. Calming things down a bit will give the crypto market a little more credibility with investors.
Long term I think crypto will still need to have its dot com culling of the herd and is still in the infancy like the late 90s early 2000s internet where people know there is potential, but can't quite imagine themselves in the crypto age as we are with internet now being a focal point of peoples lives. At some point there will be either a crash that will wipe out 70% of the coins and let the other 30% rise or there will be a consolidating event where it becomes clear which coins become the front runners and the rest fade to obscurity. For the people who say that crypto will not latch on, I ask, how much cash have you used in the last 6 months? Are we not already in a digital currency age?
WTFpattern
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@Perma_Pig, I completely missed what you were asking with your last question. I don't think you will find something that is immune to all four, could hedge with inverse ETFs and possibly play with FOREX to find arbitrage opportunities or hop on the lily pads of whichever pair is swinging the most. Crypto seems to move as BTC moves so the whole market will come down with it. I have never tried commodities, but one would think that there would be some insulation in foodstuffs as people always need to eat whether the market is up or down.