BTCUSD "First Kiss, Reunion, and ... Multi-aspect analysis"

Hello Traders!

So far, I've been posting from a trader's perspective. However, today I'm going to get back to my original position which is analyst, and will share my multi-aspect analysis for BTCUSD which has been trending downward for the past a couple of weeks.

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1. About 52 Weeks and 104 weeks MA and analogy.

Do you guys remember your first kiss? when was it and how was it?
Well, don't ask me because I don't even remember lol. I'm not that old tho.

However, thanks to Tradingview, this platform allows us to review and analyze how it was for BTCUSD and 52 WK MA including 104 WK MA (Moving average).

As sky-blue colored circle indicates above, (SUPPORT is abbreviated as 'S', and RESISTANCE represents 'R' ...u know that).

BTCUSD and 52 week MA(skyblue solid line) had their first kiss in April 2014, the price level was 70% decline from 1st High as indicated above(the 1st skyblue circle from the left). After Bitcoin kept its upward trend for almost 2 years, BTC met ex again (52 WK MA) in April 2018, the price level was also from 70% decline from the 2ND High in December, 2017 (the 1st skyblue circle since 2ND HIGH on the right hand side).


Bringing back to first kiss date, which is April 2014, right after the first kiss, we had a support from the 52 week MA, and bounced back successfully. However, the 2nd reunion (the 2nd skyblue circle from the left since 1st High), failed to hold support and broke down below, which means 52 WK MA is now changed to Resistance.
After their 2nd kiss, BTC touched 104 WK MA (Pink solid line) but failed to hold the support and price broke down below again. And from the lowest point here, we had 50% gain until BTC retested 52 WK MA again (the 3rd skyblue circle from the left) to confirm whether it's working as a resistance or not.

Then, how about after 2nd High (December, 2017)? Do they have similarity again? well let's check it out.
From the lowest price level in June 2018 and until the next resistance retest (skyblue solid line), BTC gained approx. 50% again (the 3rd skyblue circle since 2nd High) and of course in both cases, they recognized it as resistance and failed to break above the line.

(I purposely didn't include the shadow of Jan 2015 candle or tail, however u name it. This is primarily because I think it is whipsaw or if it's not a fake movement, then this is not what the group who has enough power to influence the price of BTC meant to do it. So I excluded this price action.)


And finally the 4th kiss...(the 4th skyblue circle from each High)
52 week MA has changed its role to Resistance line, and I'm pretty sure most of the technical traders recognized this as a resistance line. Not only the traders, but also the participants thought that this is a resistance and most of them were already exhausted and were leaving the market.
And u know what? such resistance, where people think that it is 'OBVIOUSLY' a resistance, is broken very easily. Just like when our S&P 500 broke resistance above in Jan 2019 and went up sky high.
So, in October 2015, BTC broke above this 52wk MA and kept its upward trend for almost 2 years with strong demands that I've never seen before.

How about after the 2ND HIGH (December 2017)? well.. we all know what happened.
When BTC price dropped from almost $20000 all the way down to $3000, most individual investors criticized the value of BTC and said there's no value in it. But, in April 2019, BTC broke this 52wk MA again(the 4th skyblue circle from 2ND HIGH) and kept its upward trend again... with +300% gain from its lowest price.



After such a strong upward, in Jan 2016, BTC touched 104 WK MA (Pink solid line) to test whether it's working as a support line (the 5th black circle from the left). At this point, there's a difference compared to current situation.
In 2016, BTC was able to hold this line as support and kept its upward trend.

But, the 5th kiss since 2ND HIGH (the 5th black circle)...
In September 2019, BTC looks like it was ready to bounce back and back on track to get higher high. But actually it failed to break above and now it's even breaking below 52 WK MA. I strongly believe that if BTC wanted to touch $15000, then it should've supported the price around $7700.. at least.


Of course, the weekly candle is not completed yet. So we need to see how the weekend goes. If it completes the candle with price above these lines and shows 52 WK and 104 WK MA golden cross after all, then more than likely, BTC will repeat its price action history and analogy(fractal perspective) will prove its reliability by itself. However, if we have a different price action compared to the previous 5th kiss since 1ST HIGH, then this would be a signal that we are going to have a different scenario for BTC price in the future.

There are some more to consider but since it's getting too long, I'll post and share rest of them later.

Thanks,



After all, only Traders who have right strategies that penetrate markets will survive, not people trading with luck or without criteria.