BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I've tried to minimise the number of lines on this chart (log scale, 4hr). If you put too many lines on a chart it ends up telling you nothing but you can always convince yourself that one of those lines was right. The downward trend line was drawn from the high on 6th Jan and we have just bounced solidly off that at exactly 11,065. The blue line is my projection of the current trend and if the trend continues it will act as support for smart money to buy at and above. The yellow line is my guess for future prices. It was drawn with the assumption that the bulls are now in control and price will eventually break through the pink trend line . Simples.
Comment: I've just stepped out of the Bitcoin long at 11280. This is just taking too long to break thru the overhead resistance and I'm now seeing many signs of weakness. I expect this to drop from here and it's best to be nimble as a trader. You can see a staircase pattern with the dotted lines I've drawn on the 2h chart. Those step heights are getting smaller and the last 2 have been below the centre blue line. You can also see the green filled areas (strong uptrend) have completely disappeared in the last 48hrs and the slope of the moving average is flattening out. All these are signaling that we have come as far as we are going to with the current rally (since 26th Feb). Now the bulls(me) are taking a rest and keeping their powder dry.
I've drawn a couple of dotted lines on the right to project where I expect the 2% line to go next. How far this correction will drop is anyones guess right now (it could easily last a week). I am still very bullish long term for bitcoin and don't like shorting bitcoin here.
Comment: This is my expectations of bitcoin now. I'll be a buyer again around 10,200 to 10,400. My approach is to take a guess and then trade that guess by buying low and selling high. The long term trend is up but each fall can reclaim 75% of the most recent rise. Don't over trade. The trend may be your friend but patience is your advantage. I still want to be here when this goes to the moon.


Dude WTF this was so spot on. You just got a new follower.
I like the idea, but doesn't the rejection suggest that bears may still have it? It was an ideal bull set-up and it seems to me that it's failed. I think we hover here for a while before retesting 9750 ish to determine direction. Good luck
unspecial steve.elliott
@steve.elliott, The bulls are just letting the bears think they still have it but the blue line will show the truth.
unspecial unspecial
Bulls just played their hand at 10,210
Which indicator is this? Thanks.
unspecial goodwinlucknow
@goodwinlucknow, It's one I wrote based around a moving average(38) but modified slightly. The bands are offset 2% and 11%.
@unspecial, Cool, care to publish it? :)
unspecial goodwinlucknow
@goodwinlucknow, When it's perfected I will.
This does the bands:
C = sma(close,N*2)
// plot wide bands
Sh = C*HFw
bDown = falling(C,1) // used for color of bands
plot(Sh, title="High Wide Band", color=bDown ? red : green, linewidth=4)
plot(Sl,title = "Low Wide Band", color=bDown? red : green,linewidth =4)

// plot tight bands
Sht = C*HFt
Slt = C*LFt
plot(Sht, title="High tight Band", color=bDown ? orange : #00BB00, linewidth=1)
plot(Slt,title = "Low tight Band", color=bDown? orange : #00FF00, linewidth =1)
@unspecial, Thanks alot appreciate it.