Bitcoin: Next Stop 95K?

Bitcoin has held the 88K area support and is now attempting to push into the 95K key resistance. Can the momentum continue? That's up to Bitcoin to decide. Our job is to evaluate the price action for further evidence of momentum or not. From this point we can assess risk and figure out if an opportunity exists that aligns with our own style and risk tolerance.

The arguments for the bullish side are clear and coherent. I have no idea how anyone can assert a "bear" market, unless you are stuck on 1 minute charts and missing the big picture. Technically everything points higher. The 80K low on this time frame presented here is a higher low on the weekly and monthly time frames. Higher lows typically lead to higher highs. Price is trying to break out of the recent consolidation and test the 95K high. This is NOT characteristic of a "bear" market. We should be testing and breaking major supports effortlessly and price is NOT.

The 80K low to 95K high happens to be expressed as a spinning top candle on the monthly time frame. This indecision at a LOW point implies an absence of selling pressure. IF 95K is compromised, it will confirm the higher low and increases the probability of a retest of 100K or higher in the coming weeks.

On top of that, charts alone are only a SMALL piece of the puzzle. There is a very supportive and vibrant ecosystem, and economic environment for this asset class to grow and thrive. For example, now that the U.S. is going to be bringing more oil production online after acquiring Venezuela, I mean uh temporary management of the country, the price of oil is likely to go lower. This will bolster the argument for lower interest rates since energy is a major component of inflation. Combine this with a new incoming Yesman, I mean Chairman of the Federal Reserve, and we have a recipe for an easy monetary policy environment. Easy money means lower dollar, which means every thing goes higher like stocks, Gold, Bitcoin etc.

The 3 rate cuts recently will take time to process, at least half a year or more. Along with that, we have a plethora of major banks, hedge funds and other companies like Strategy pouring all kinds of money and resources into this market in the face of weakness. These types of situations where fundamentals and technical analysis are misaligned are uncommon AND often where longer term investment opportunities lurk. Things can change and anything is possible, but as traders and investors we have question the probability of one scenario over the other. And at the same time not be mislead of nonsensical forecasts aimed at simply monetizing attention.

From the swing trade perspective, Bitcoin can still reject the general 90K area resistance as my illustration suggests but this is a very short term view. IF such a pullback is confirmed, it should be viewed as another buying opportunity in my opinion, UNTIL the 80K support is cleared. As long as 80K holds in general, Bitcoin is more likely to break resistance levels. Watch for bullish reversal confirmation near the midpoint or lower part of the range. If taking a bullish break out of resistance, just be prepared for a fake out even if it is less likely.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.