We had little enthusiasm from bulls to flip the market into bull-mode; all sorts of indicators, patterns and harmonics showing a deeper dive into 5K territory before reversal; and average support on order books (I've seen better). In addition to all this, Bitcoin Futures expired yesterday.
The news is also rather neutral on BTC and cryptocurrencies (little FUD at the moment).
But despite all this, 5K did not happen. 6K was defended in a way I haven't seen before.
We had an long exciting red candle on the hourly chart (which usually produces armageddon) but instead, bulls bought up all the selling action -- and followed this with a long green candle of their own. It was stunning to watch.
I have mentioned before (and this is all the more relevant now) that BTC is right at the tip of a -- where and trading get super-low. In a place like this, upward explosions of price are no surprise, and R:R calculation for swing traders is rather challenging -- especially if your not a perma-bull/bear (neutral).
The market has tried 5 separate times to break 6K this year, but it has held solid like a rock.
This tells me one thing, huge investments have probably been made in this region by large institutional investors (whales). And they'll do anything to defend those 5 or so opportunities where they have been accumulating BTC .
At the moment, it's unlikely the market drops any further - because of reasons mentioned here: and elsewhere . But if it does flip, I'm expecting a sharp drop , but a fast & furious recovery -- probably ushering in a new bull run.
If 6K holds, considering where we are on that triangle, we might see the market flip and enter into a new bull season. There is additional evidence for a breakout to the top side including the fact that SHORTS hit an All-time-high yesterday, and there's possible evidence of Wyckoff accumulation in this region.
I would have loved if this corrected to the 5K/4K mark. But the market and institutions might consider 6K-flat good enough.
Whatever the case a reversal here is more likely than its ever been. Look out for the trend to turn either now, or after a quick rendezvous to 5K/4K.
If you're a longterm trader or multi-year investor, this might be one of the last few opportunities to buy BTC on the low. And it's great risk/reward too. Just keep your stop losses tight (around 5.7K).
However if your a perfectionist :), stay out (with buy orders at 5K), and wait for a breakout to the upside or downside to make a final decision.
Remember: don't look to always be right. Instead, look for opportunities that offer great risk/reward ratios.
What do you think? Are we likely to see further downside? Or could this be the beginning of a new bull market?
Leave your comments below.
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All the best.