Hi guys, here is my market overview of what happened on Saturday and how I’m thinking about the market from here.
Short-term update:
The bullish scenario on lower timeframes is invalidated. Structure failed, local support broke, and downside followed. Any upside from here should be treated as counter-trend, not trend continuation.
Key technical detail:
Despite the breakdown, BTC has so far printed a higher low relative to the April low last year. This is the only constructive element left on the chart. It does not signal a new bull market, but it keeps higher-timeframe structure from fully breaking.
Market context:
Even in bear markets, price does not move in a straight line. Sharp drops are usually followed by bounces and consolidation phases. These moves will give you the opportunity to make a decision.
Macro note:
Truflation is now below 1%, indicating cooling inflation pressure. Deflation is not a good sign for risk-on assets.
Takeaway:
❌ Short-term bullish thesis invalidated
✔ Higher-timeframe structure still holding (for now)
⚠ Bear market conditions remain
🔁 Relief bounces are possible and should be used to reassess positioning
Focus: capital preservation, patience, and disciplined decision-making, not prediction.
Short-term update:
The bullish scenario on lower timeframes is invalidated. Structure failed, local support broke, and downside followed. Any upside from here should be treated as counter-trend, not trend continuation.
Key technical detail:
Despite the breakdown, BTC has so far printed a higher low relative to the April low last year. This is the only constructive element left on the chart. It does not signal a new bull market, but it keeps higher-timeframe structure from fully breaking.
Market context:
Even in bear markets, price does not move in a straight line. Sharp drops are usually followed by bounces and consolidation phases. These moves will give you the opportunity to make a decision.
Macro note:
Truflation is now below 1%, indicating cooling inflation pressure. Deflation is not a good sign for risk-on assets.
Takeaway:
❌ Short-term bullish thesis invalidated
✔ Higher-timeframe structure still holding (for now)
⚠ Bear market conditions remain
🔁 Relief bounces are possible and should be used to reassess positioning
Focus: capital preservation, patience, and disciplined decision-making, not prediction.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.