BTC should have crashed in March. It should have done a lot of things this year, but seems to have been doing the opposite of what everyone predicted. TAs don't make sense, we have broken out of bearish patterns bullishly several times. And Billions have been lost in the form of Liquidations.
In 2013, we had a similar pattern, we never really corrected until April. We had 7 bullish green candlesticks in a row, and the 8th one was red. We may have a similar pattern here.
On Chain Data shows a severe decrease in Transactions in March, which normally would be followed by a drop in price, however the price kept floating upwards. I think that after the Coinbase IPO it may be time for nature to kick in, and we can see a drop of BTC. This can happen this week, or next month. It is hard to say. The price could have topped out at 65k, or it could go up to 70k-79k. It is hard to say.
Although it is hard to predict, 1 thing is for certain. The correction will come, and it will most likely be a lot larger than the 20% ones we have seen up until now.
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Naaaailed it.
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Elliott Wave Pattern Complete, Bitcoin has moved down to the extension of the bearish correction, and should correct upwards and form a new pattern.
If my memory doesn't fail me I believe the pattern is 38% hard drops after each of the previous extreme bull cycles. And that's what I'm waiting for in fiat. Some may call me crazy but if you think like a whale you will find it makes all the sense in the world. There is a reason for history repeating itself in markets. It's not coincidence, but money. Because historically it has been shown you can stick to the same plan forever and no one will figure it out. Wash rinse repeat friends!
Shwayze
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@cryptospawn, Here is an intuitive comment, this asset has been one of the oddest in that it seems predictable? There is almost no better predictor than the historical patterns. In 2017 we did see many 38.2% corrections. However in 2013, we did not. We saw something EERILY similar to this. 7 monthly green candles, followed by a 80% drop, and a resulting multi-year bull cycle with 2 distinct tops. I think something like 2013 can be playing out again, although its harder to determine the time-frame. I have not yet mastered fractals, and I believe they play a big part.
I will not know until 2025, but to me - this has raised about 1000% every 1 year in the beginning, until 2012-13, when it became 1000% gains every 2 years, hitting 15 and 17, at which point we have a potential 4 year period to hit 1000% again, at 100k in 2021. I don't think 1 Million will hit in 2025, I think it may be closer to 2028 and I do think it is inevitable barring ill intentions. That is just a theory I have been working on, but is not as accurate as Timothy Petersons "Metcalfes Law as it is applied to Bitcoin".
rucinski.wojciech
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I agree.
Already in short position from 63300.
And i'll keep it till 66000 or 41000.
mrsceleste
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That’s a very good point (your Coinbase comment) The hype very well could have caused overpricing
sagar_diwan
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If there is an entity artificially supporting the price over 1 TRILLION market cap, why not 100k first ? They got our back ...
Shwayze
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@sagar_diwan, I don't know if I agree with them having our back, we can argue there is a definitive and repetitive pattern to Bitcoin, yet almost no one talks about it. You bring it up, and you might as well be wearing a tinfoil hat, people treat you like you are crazy. So it doesn't feel like it's a pattern for us, although its proven easy to predict.
What I have witnessed has been nothing short of corporate manipulation aimed at liquidations of Billions of both Short and Long positions, while the amount of Youtube videos selling these margin trading exchanges hits new highs, but that is simply my perception.
I would say it was in their best interest to bring the market cap of crypto up as high as possible, and to add as many coins to Coinbase as possible, as each one adds to the ultra high valuation of the company, which is what the stock price is derived from.
I am not saying we will not go higher eventually. The on-chain data pointed out a variance that I had not seen before, and the RSI of BTC was almost improbable, the buying volume but a trace of its past self, and the only thing allowing it to go to newer heights - were the seldom, yet much larger transactions which had just started their own pattern. Once the high valuation of Coinbase was met, 100 Billion +, I don't see any reason for the price to stay inflated and would expect a correction within the next couple weeks.
I expect there to be variables that I am seeing wrong, or am not seeing at all.
Kingstevieb
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Trend is higher. Stay long friends.
Shwayze
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@Kingstevieb, Let's hope so, would extend Altcoin Season and perhaps result in a double bottom for BTC.D. The rising wedge has a lot of room above to play out as well.
braddel
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Hats off to your foresight. Now, the question is: is this it? Is the almost 50% correction ahead of us?
Shwayze
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@braddel, Well... How about this. There is an inverse correlation between price of BTC, and Good News / Bullish News. I don't quite understand it in its entirety, but so far when I have heard Microstrategy buys 400 Million of BTC, it tanks within 3 days. When whoever bought this weekend, it tanks. And when BTC was "a double spend flaw", someone with lots of money bought everyones sales up, and more.
That's without looking at the leverage charts. It seems that a couple corporations put out leverage pools of up to 100x Bitcoin (why!), and they certainly seem to know how to cash in on them. This last 4 Billion Dollar Long Squeeze is the single biggest event I have seen.
I say all this, because the price has strayed from what a normal TA would be capable of... When we break out bullish from a rising wedge pattern, or breakout of a bullish pattern up, just to slingshot down real quick and then up without an indication of happening prior.