Good news, it seems that BTC shows some signs of life after the last two weeks.
Several things point towards 3450 on bitstamp having been the local low for now. It surely is a weird price that I didn't see coming, I thought that 4200 would act as strong support, but it went through that historical support line like butter. That confirms by belief that lines aren't the best tool for longterm btc charting.
Now, if we analyze the previous time the situation was similar, was the low end of september 2014, to the final low in january 2015, only 4 months later. Since we seem to be 2 months behind, the low in our case should be in march.
It would be excellent if this here was indeed the local low at 3450, because if the same ratio would apply (275 USD to 153 USD), we would end up at a low of 1900. Of course this is not super exact, but it points to the same low as our previous analyses, which all pointed to an area somewhere at 2000 plusminus a few hundred.
Weekly RSI and stoch RSI look very similar also, and shorts on finex are above longs, showing that too many people believe now that we'll go further down. The market of course likes to do the exact opposite, hehe.
Now, let's hope that this was indeed the local low, but it is looking good. I am long for now, switching back to short in a few weeks. We might go to 5500 in the coming weeks, then the final low in march. A low at 1900-2300 would show strength, since we'd not come near the previous ATH at 1200. Only if we'd go below 1200, would the market show weakness. However, as it is looking now, the chances for a sub 1200 scenario are very low.
Good luck to you all :)
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Looking good. We'll blast through 4300, on the way towards 5-5,5k top in a few weeks:
Shorts are still very high, so as long as that is the case, it'll pump.
We are exactly on the tip of your pointer; where is the next direction?
CryptoFido
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Poukitoun
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or this could be the bottom, we just experienced a 82.5% correction, this is quite in line with previous correction and we bounced out of this nice support line but anything is possible. I would love to go down 3k, I had more cash waiting to entry at that level. I just feel too many are expecting the 3k just like too many thought 6k would hold. Bitcoin tends to behave against common sentiment.
Poukitoun
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@Poukitoun, also interesting to see if we actually trace the first resistance line that we broke a while ago, we just re-tested that line and bounced back so far. So many of us might have this resistance line wrong the whole time or at least not the main one to keep track of!
test000
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Yeah exactly, does not extend this low... it would be quick and violent... i think we could still trend downwards below 3k and the and then see the final low slash down to the lower 1000s. Trending down below 3k slowly will cause a lot of pain and that is exactly what this market needs. People are still far too bullish.
SebastianofMoon
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@test000, Yes, I agree. If 3450 hasn't been the local low, and we indeed go further down in this dump, say 2900-3000, then of course, the low next year will also be lower. Then lower 1000s is realistic. If we would dip below 1200, this would be bad though, meaning a much longer bearmarket, the next ATH then as late as 2023 :/
Poukitoun
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@test000, maybe some people here and there in TD but in youtube is chaos, many 'last chance' holders have given up when we broke under 6k. I've seen many mad too. Even top crypto youtubers changed from 8k by end of year to sub $1500 eoy. Check also google stats regarding 'shorting BTC' its at all time high...
mike73234
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@test000, yea I want volatile bounce from 3k area, That is how BTC works, but will see