#Bitcoin: Undeniable Bullish Momentum and Potential Upside
Thumbs up & comments appreciated.
Sorry for a basic chart without bells at this time. I'm often too busy to share the depth of my research. I'll just say that earlier I published a perfect trade to short Bitcoin down to $6500 - you can check that of course.
This year we are seeing all the hallmarks of exceptional bullish momentum and another confirmation in the last 24 hrs with retaking $10k so effortlessly.
We were in a bear trend last year and we are seeing a textbook reversal into a bull trend. I was waiting for confirmation of the bull trend for us to hold above $10,500 and for the Golden Cross coming of 50 over 200 daily moving average before calling it - although that is a lagging indicator.
The shallow and short-lived pullbacks and how quickly we retook $10k show an exceptional bullish momentum.
Step back and see the view from 2017 to now and the market is clearly gearing for another parabolic run. The fundamentals of Bitcoin also support this sentiment. And if the market wishes to do that, I"ll happy go along for the ride.
For me, once we clear $10,500, I will be watching a retest of the $13,700 high. If I get enough interaction on this post I might share smaller targets between here and there and comment on whether I think the uptrend is losing steam (or not).
It is much too early to tell and I"m not a fan of painting new hyperbole ATHs for Bitcoin - but 'if' the price 'was' to reach or pass the ATH for Bitcoin then the run up we are seeing would match that result - which is exciting. It may fizzle out along the way (or not) but for now there is little stopping the bullish momentum.
Once we clear and hold above $10,500 I believe "it's on" to race up to the next target.
Thoughts on the fundamentals supporting this uptrend & long range outlook. I'm more into the TA but with such a parabolic run you want some decent fundamentals supporting it as well.
BTC Fundamentals
Stating the obvious there is the Halving due around May which from limited history has seen a clear and dramatic uptrend in BTC price due to reduced supply/scarcity. Prior to the halving, miners currently generate 54,000 new Bitcoins each & every month which the market needs to absorb (and news outlets often worry when they hear of a sale of a few thousand coins?). After May there will be 27,000 less coins to sell each month. More could be said but that has to be good for price.
A lot of infrastructure progress took place during the bear market across all cryptocurrencies. For BTC, it saw technology strides during 2019 with Lightning Network commitment by Square, Binance and others and multi-path, multi-channel development to resolve many of the LN criticisms. Many view BTC small blocks as vital for sensorship-resistant decentralisation and then LN aims to open Bitcoin up for millions of transactions per second to power IoT as a payment means, without clogging the on-chain small blocks - trying for best of both worlds. On the "Store of Value" SoV front, Bitcoin outperforming gold and the "Drop Gold" campaign gave it extra confidence for the wider Store of Value case (not that I'm into that personally). Also people have long quoted the Lindy effect that the longer Bitcoin stays in the spotlight as the market leader, the higher confidence in it grows (though some suggest insufficient history for Lindy but this is crypto and everything is accelerated). Also setbacks of other currencies such as Libra reinforced Bitcoin in the spotlight as the successful champion.
Historically Bitcoin has always rallied to spectacular new ATHs after each local bubble top. 2017 saw a top near $20k and typical correction. Now that the 2019 bear trend is all but broken, it appears the market views 2020 as resuming Bitcoin's historic climb to head towards a brand new ATH. With that sentiment and the above fundamentals, I'd suggest this explains the immense bullish momentum we are seeing. We will see how far the price gets this year - certainly a lot of potential though.
BTC Threats
What am I watching that could halt an uptrend?
The SoV case seems enough for some. For me, for Bitcoin to climb to brand new ATHs 'and stay there' I'd like to see more Lightning Network adoption which Square is championing.
One of the bigger threats to BTC might be if Craig Wright does get hold of 1.1 Million BTC and dump it and/or go into patent war on BTC if that's possible - more speculation and drama there than on Netflix. Only time will tell. Some hold some BSV as a hedge but as we saw in the BCH vs BSV war, fighting deeply hurt the price of both coins. Friendly competition is a good thing but whenever it turns ugly there are often no winners.
Keeping an eye on CSW/BSV news is helpful during the Bitcoin climb as it can impact short term price - price might drop then if everyone reports 'false alarm' price trend resumes.
I hope you find this helpful. I am constantly researching beneath the 'noise' to ensure my trades have the best success - and I have a fascination to unpack everything in crypto to see what makes it tick. Thumbs up & any comments appreciated.
Sorry for a basic chart without bells at this time. I'm often too busy to share the depth of my research. I'll just say that earlier I published a perfect trade to short Bitcoin down to $6500 - you can check that of course.
This year we are seeing all the hallmarks of exceptional bullish momentum and another confirmation in the last 24 hrs with retaking $10k so effortlessly.
We were in a bear trend last year and we are seeing a textbook reversal into a bull trend. I was waiting for confirmation of the bull trend for us to hold above $10,500 and for the Golden Cross coming of 50 over 200 daily moving average before calling it - although that is a lagging indicator.
The shallow and short-lived pullbacks and how quickly we retook $10k show an exceptional bullish momentum.
Step back and see the view from 2017 to now and the market is clearly gearing for another parabolic run. The fundamentals of Bitcoin also support this sentiment. And if the market wishes to do that, I"ll happy go along for the ride.
For me, once we clear $10,500, I will be watching a retest of the $13,700 high. If I get enough interaction on this post I might share smaller targets between here and there and comment on whether I think the uptrend is losing steam (or not).
It is much too early to tell and I"m not a fan of painting new hyperbole ATHs for Bitcoin - but 'if' the price 'was' to reach or pass the ATH for Bitcoin then the run up we are seeing would match that result - which is exciting. It may fizzle out along the way (or not) but for now there is little stopping the bullish momentum.
Once we clear and hold above $10,500 I believe "it's on" to race up to the next target.
Thoughts on the fundamentals supporting this uptrend & long range outlook. I'm more into the TA but with such a parabolic run you want some decent fundamentals supporting it as well.
BTC Fundamentals
Stating the obvious there is the Halving due around May which from limited history has seen a clear and dramatic uptrend in BTC price due to reduced supply/scarcity. Prior to the halving, miners currently generate 54,000 new Bitcoins each & every month which the market needs to absorb (and news outlets often worry when they hear of a sale of a few thousand coins?). After May there will be 27,000 less coins to sell each month. More could be said but that has to be good for price.
A lot of infrastructure progress took place during the bear market across all cryptocurrencies. For BTC, it saw technology strides during 2019 with Lightning Network commitment by Square, Binance and others and multi-path, multi-channel development to resolve many of the LN criticisms. Many view BTC small blocks as vital for sensorship-resistant decentralisation and then LN aims to open Bitcoin up for millions of transactions per second to power IoT as a payment means, without clogging the on-chain small blocks - trying for best of both worlds. On the "Store of Value" SoV front, Bitcoin outperforming gold and the "Drop Gold" campaign gave it extra confidence for the wider Store of Value case (not that I'm into that personally). Also people have long quoted the Lindy effect that the longer Bitcoin stays in the spotlight as the market leader, the higher confidence in it grows (though some suggest insufficient history for Lindy but this is crypto and everything is accelerated). Also setbacks of other currencies such as Libra reinforced Bitcoin in the spotlight as the successful champion.
Historically Bitcoin has always rallied to spectacular new ATHs after each local bubble top. 2017 saw a top near $20k and typical correction. Now that the 2019 bear trend is all but broken, it appears the market views 2020 as resuming Bitcoin's historic climb to head towards a brand new ATH. With that sentiment and the above fundamentals, I'd suggest this explains the immense bullish momentum we are seeing. We will see how far the price gets this year - certainly a lot of potential though.
BTC Threats
What am I watching that could halt an uptrend?
The SoV case seems enough for some. For me, for Bitcoin to climb to brand new ATHs 'and stay there' I'd like to see more Lightning Network adoption which Square is championing.
One of the bigger threats to BTC might be if Craig Wright does get hold of 1.1 Million BTC and dump it and/or go into patent war on BTC if that's possible - more speculation and drama there than on Netflix. Only time will tell. Some hold some BSV as a hedge but as we saw in the BCH vs BSV war, fighting deeply hurt the price of both coins. Friendly competition is a good thing but whenever it turns ugly there are often no winners.
Keeping an eye on CSW/BSV news is helpful during the Bitcoin climb as it can impact short term price - price might drop then if everyone reports 'false alarm' price trend resumes.
I hope you find this helpful. I am constantly researching beneath the 'noise' to ensure my trades have the best success - and I have a fascination to unpack everything in crypto to see what makes it tick. Thumbs up & any comments appreciated.
Comment:
As outlined above, the $10,500 has been a key resistance level for us to get above before the bull trend is confirmed. To manage risk I sold on the approach to $10,500 as traders tend to front run these levels and have rebought at $10,155 as we appear to be stabilising above that support. I suggest this is an entry point to consider.
If this shallow dip is our main pullback from testing the difficult $10,500 level then that is another confirmation of the bullish momentum.
Keep an eye on the charts and consider adjusting your stop losses upwards as we advance from here.
If this shallow dip is our main pullback from testing the difficult $10,500 level then that is another confirmation of the bullish momentum.
Keep an eye on the charts and consider adjusting your stop losses upwards as we advance from here.
Comment:
The Bulls & Bears have been fighting it out at the $10,100 support level - which naturally reflects the somewhat polarised feelings on Trading View as well. Some rightly cautious that this is the top, others seeing how quickly we bounce back higher and higher each time, looking out at the monthly chart since 2017 and attributing a transition into a bull trend overall with significant upside potential.
My probabilities favour the upside as I've outlined above ... but as always we will see what the market chooses to do next. I've bought this dip, however I'm also watching ready to park it & re-assess if we were to drop below $10k support though I think that is unlikely.
My probabilities favour the upside as I've outlined above ... but as always we will see what the market chooses to do next. I've bought this dip, however I'm also watching ready to park it & re-assess if we were to drop below $10k support though I think that is unlikely.
Comment:
Wow! Just look at the strength of that RIP as we rebound straight back from $10,100 to continue testing $10,500k barely blinking. That is a clear sign of the bullish momentum at play - like a geyser.
Comment:
Bulls & bears have been fighting it out with thin order books so this is not a time to be on high leverage until we clear above the 10500 resistance.
Price continues to hold nicely above the 10100 support base (which has surprised many) and consolidating sideways, likely gearing for our next retest up of 10500.
The Golden Cross looks to be around end of next week which tips probability in favour of the bullish uptrend. We will see.
Price continues to hold nicely above the 10100 support base (which has surprised many) and consolidating sideways, likely gearing for our next retest up of 10500.
The Golden Cross looks to be around end of next week which tips probability in favour of the bullish uptrend. We will see.
Comment:
Bearish divergence on the 4H RSI and growing sell pressure led me to close my position. Will wait for short term action to settle and stronger confirmation of the trend.
Comment:
We've had a healthy pullback and are back (quicker than most expected - even a little faster than I expected tbh) in the 10K realm so quickly re-testing the resistance above $10,200 and consolidating for a push higher.
Again, that bullish momentum is undeniable from last night's rip!!
We also have the Golden Cross now which is adding fuel.
I'd bought at the first Fib Retracement of 9550 from the full move 6400 to 10500.
Personally I'm not adding until we break and hold above the 10,500 resistance - then "It's on!". If you're considering an entry, the bullish momentum and consolidation happening above $10k, together with the significant upside, seems like an excellent risk:reward setup provided you manage your stop loss.
I am also riding ETH up as it's upside potential is significantly higher than BTC. Add leverage to that at key moments for excellent returns.
And finally I will be planning to slowly reduce my positions as we climb, potentially retesting the all time high but risk increases the higher we go.
Again, that bullish momentum is undeniable from last night's rip!!
We also have the Golden Cross now which is adding fuel.
I'd bought at the first Fib Retracement of 9550 from the full move 6400 to 10500.
Personally I'm not adding until we break and hold above the 10,500 resistance - then "It's on!". If you're considering an entry, the bullish momentum and consolidation happening above $10k, together with the significant upside, seems like an excellent risk:reward setup provided you manage your stop loss.
I am also riding ETH up as it's upside potential is significantly higher than BTC. Add leverage to that at key moments for excellent returns.
And finally I will be planning to slowly reduce my positions as we climb, potentially retesting the all time high but risk increases the higher we go.
Comment:
Remember too: When moving from a bear to bull trend and when we re-test previous highs, "price climbs a wall of worry".
Pundits are there to stir drama to get their views and remind us of every thing that could possibly go wrong. Sure there are threats, that is why we manage our trades - but the bullish momentum is a healthy at this time.
Friends - wishing you the best with your trades!
Pundits are there to stir drama to get their views and remind us of every thing that could possibly go wrong. Sure there are threats, that is why we manage our trades - but the bullish momentum is a healthy at this time.
Friends - wishing you the best with your trades!
Comment:
The short term market sentiment is in flux and I am waiting for the current volatility to settle. I believe two key factors have negatively dampened the bullish momentum (some would say "spoiling the bull party" for the moment).
Fear factor #1: I outlined the first one in my original post above. Craig Wright has been freshly in the news giving a stern warning on both Intellectual Property on the database underlying Bitcoin and (eventually) every airdropped coin and his growing shadow of up to 6000 patents to bring down the entire crypto space (if legally successful). The idea of one person having power over all of crypto is rather centralised but I'm not here to debate that. As yet, there does not appear to be any organised counter-argument to settle the market against these threats - only individuals sounding off about them. Further in the background, no one quite knows what is going on with the 1.1 Million Satoshi Bitcoins and the Ira Kleiman court case - it is a smokescreen - and while it might clear in the end investors do not buy into uncertainty. Only one thing is sure - the court case is set to drag on with plenty of FUD on both sides. For the moment though, the threat of the Bitcoin database being Intellectual Property is fresh news dampening confidence.
Fundamentally I would say all other market conditions have set up Bitcoin and crypto for a fabulous bull run, except that the shadow of the above is not minor.
Factor #2: Thin volume manipulated by whale move yesterday. Often after each rip up or down the order books remain thin behind the move (as orders take time to refill) and yesterday we saw whales take advantage of that, crashing the price back down through the scant buy orders that had previously been left thin from the 9600 to 10250 rip 20 hours before. Most certainly manipulation which has shaken a little of the bullish confidence.
At the moment I am staying out of the trade as the swing risks each way are too high. I will take a moderate position at 9200 if we pullback to that and lower such as 8600 and monitor these and if/when we break and hold above 10500 that will add confidence for higher targets.
Wishing everyone the best with their trades.
Fear factor #1: I outlined the first one in my original post above. Craig Wright has been freshly in the news giving a stern warning on both Intellectual Property on the database underlying Bitcoin and (eventually) every airdropped coin and his growing shadow of up to 6000 patents to bring down the entire crypto space (if legally successful). The idea of one person having power over all of crypto is rather centralised but I'm not here to debate that. As yet, there does not appear to be any organised counter-argument to settle the market against these threats - only individuals sounding off about them. Further in the background, no one quite knows what is going on with the 1.1 Million Satoshi Bitcoins and the Ira Kleiman court case - it is a smokescreen - and while it might clear in the end investors do not buy into uncertainty. Only one thing is sure - the court case is set to drag on with plenty of FUD on both sides. For the moment though, the threat of the Bitcoin database being Intellectual Property is fresh news dampening confidence.
Fundamentally I would say all other market conditions have set up Bitcoin and crypto for a fabulous bull run, except that the shadow of the above is not minor.
Factor #2: Thin volume manipulated by whale move yesterday. Often after each rip up or down the order books remain thin behind the move (as orders take time to refill) and yesterday we saw whales take advantage of that, crashing the price back down through the scant buy orders that had previously been left thin from the 9600 to 10250 rip 20 hours before. Most certainly manipulation which has shaken a little of the bullish confidence.
At the moment I am staying out of the trade as the swing risks each way are too high. I will take a moderate position at 9200 if we pullback to that and lower such as 8600 and monitor these and if/when we break and hold above 10500 that will add confidence for higher targets.
Wishing everyone the best with their trades.
Comment:
Black Swan Event:
(by the way Black Swans are everywhere in Australia - makes us wonder what the rest of the world is talking about)
I haven't updated for a while and am only taking very short term swing trades due to market instability and uncertainty.
February has seen gold, the traditional safe-haven asset, drop by a staggering 14% and the S&P is now down 16% from ath with the broader market bleeding from both a predicted correction but also from clear hindering of global trade and market effects of coronavirus which is deepening that correction and suppressing any bounce. This week oil dropped a staggering 30% and trading was suspended in the US.
In times of crisis the herd pulls investments back to cash and we may see more of that ahead. While the entire market dropped in this crisis, nothing including Bitcoin acted as a safe-haven asset which we need to take on board.
If the market continues to stay suppressed and coronavirus news sees no end for the next few months we may see a bearish trend on all fronts.
(by the way Black Swans are everywhere in Australia - makes us wonder what the rest of the world is talking about)
I haven't updated for a while and am only taking very short term swing trades due to market instability and uncertainty.
February has seen gold, the traditional safe-haven asset, drop by a staggering 14% and the S&P is now down 16% from ath with the broader market bleeding from both a predicted correction but also from clear hindering of global trade and market effects of coronavirus which is deepening that correction and suppressing any bounce. This week oil dropped a staggering 30% and trading was suspended in the US.
In times of crisis the herd pulls investments back to cash and we may see more of that ahead. While the entire market dropped in this crisis, nothing including Bitcoin acted as a safe-haven asset which we need to take on board.
If the market continues to stay suppressed and coronavirus news sees no end for the next few months we may see a bearish trend on all fronts.
Someone joked we might see $11k sooner than we think. We'll see.