Bitcoin path of the bear or path of the bull
If we manage to get above the 6000 area I think this could convince money that was in crypto a while ago to come back. Those that won or broke even at least.
There is alot of people/money behind this move, it has drawn alot of attention. I have warned against shorting below 5000 as prices are down alot and many people are very eager to buy the bottom - they absolutely do not want to miss out (top priority) with zero regards for the risk (details). I warned but I ended up shorting anyway :p (Needed to hedge on Bitmex and did not want to waste capital for months due to ESMA regulations). I got 95% of my money out of crypto last year in june I think and recommended to do the same. It might be going fast right now but I am 99.9% sure it won't just do a bull market to 20k or more overnight and it will be impossible to miss it. If it goes to 100,000 overnight which is possible through scamming / tether, who would want to buy anyway?
We could also just be witnessing a bull trap and I think we should reman septic and expect big selling to occur as long as we are below 6-7k. That would really break people morale and hopes and going below 3000 would not be very hard after that.
It started very probably as a scam from the ponzi exchanges (Coinbene FCoin ZBG - you pay Bitcoin to trade and get a token that is not interesting to sell and can only be sold on their site), but now real people with real money are following and all "legit" places such as Coinbase have their volumes go up five fold.
So on one side real people are buying, on the other there are so many scammers involved. And there are still the miners to think about.
And also all the underwater bulls that do not use stops that will want to break even at 6000. It will be the wave of people buying against the bagholders and we do not know how many they are.
Volume will be important. For now volume is still strong.
For crypto as a whole we have to look at the 200 billion limit.
Either we make it to 6000 and remain above for a few days.
Or this could happen too:
These big rallies always happen & end up in people feeling relieved and euphoric. And then rekt most of the time. I am still waiting for 1800 and almost sure it will happen. Getting to above 6500 and not falling quickly after, would change my mind. Mind as well post a link to my idea from december where I talked about that.
Sure did not expect 3 and a half months of flat price before one of the paths is chosen. Come on, 100 days of nothing, really?
"I would never short Bitcoin. If I could buy a five-year put on every one of the cryptocurrencies, I’d be glad to do it but I would never short a dime’s worth." - Warren Buffet, a while ago. Should have listened...
"The faster you try to grow your net worth the slower it goes, you might even un-grow it." - Me, now. FeelsBadMan.
There is alot of people/money behind this move, it has drawn alot of attention. I have warned against shorting below 5000 as prices are down alot and many people are very eager to buy the bottom - they absolutely do not want to miss out (top priority) with zero regards for the risk (details). I warned but I ended up shorting anyway :p (Needed to hedge on Bitmex and did not want to waste capital for months due to ESMA regulations). I got 95% of my money out of crypto last year in june I think and recommended to do the same. It might be going fast right now but I am 99.9% sure it won't just do a bull market to 20k or more overnight and it will be impossible to miss it. If it goes to 100,000 overnight which is possible through scamming / tether, who would want to buy anyway?
We could also just be witnessing a bull trap and I think we should reman septic and expect big selling to occur as long as we are below 6-7k. That would really break people morale and hopes and going below 3000 would not be very hard after that.
It started very probably as a scam from the ponzi exchanges (Coinbene FCoin ZBG - you pay Bitcoin to trade and get a token that is not interesting to sell and can only be sold on their site), but now real people with real money are following and all "legit" places such as Coinbase have their volumes go up five fold.
So on one side real people are buying, on the other there are so many scammers involved. And there are still the miners to think about.
And also all the underwater bulls that do not use stops that will want to break even at 6000. It will be the wave of people buying against the bagholders and we do not know how many they are.
Volume will be important. For now volume is still strong.
For crypto as a whole we have to look at the 200 billion limit.
Either we make it to 6000 and remain above for a few days.
Or this could happen too:
These big rallies always happen & end up in people feeling relieved and euphoric. And then rekt most of the time. I am still waiting for 1800 and almost sure it will happen. Getting to above 6500 and not falling quickly after, would change my mind. Mind as well post a link to my idea from december where I talked about that.
Sure did not expect 3 and a half months of flat price before one of the paths is chosen. Come on, 100 days of nothing, really?
"I would never short Bitcoin. If I could buy a five-year put on every one of the cryptocurrencies, I’d be glad to do it but I would never short a dime’s worth." - Warren Buffet, a while ago. Should have listened...
"The faster you try to grow your net worth the slower it goes, you might even un-grow it." - Me, now. FeelsBadMan.
Comment:
I don't think there's going to be a retrace to 4500 to buy, going up soon rather.
Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top. Volume is often lower in wave five than in wave three, and many momentum indicators start to show divergences (prices reach a new high but the indicators do not reach a new peak). At the end of a major bull market, bears may very well be ridiculed (recall how forecasts for a top in the stock market during 2000 were received).
A short would be interesting, later. And nothing else. Well maybe following the pump but no actually because we cannot quantify the wash trading exchanges risk. When you have some experience you can tell how every one is really really bad. Interested in trying to sell the top, chasing the pump that followed the breakout late - it's over hello, or swearing there is huge risk in not buying during wave 5. Some author literally told people they are taking big risks not buying now. And people don't understand what my problem with that is. Absolutely awful. I'd eat my own clothes if that guy is really profitable.
Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top. Volume is often lower in wave five than in wave three, and many momentum indicators start to show divergences (prices reach a new high but the indicators do not reach a new peak). At the end of a major bull market, bears may very well be ridiculed (recall how forecasts for a top in the stock market during 2000 were received).
A short would be interesting, later. And nothing else. Well maybe following the pump but no actually because we cannot quantify the wash trading exchanges risk. When you have some experience you can tell how every one is really really bad. Interested in trying to sell the top, chasing the pump that followed the breakout late - it's over hello, or swearing there is huge risk in not buying during wave 5. Some author literally told people they are taking big risks not buying now. And people don't understand what my problem with that is. Absolutely awful. I'd eat my own clothes if that guy is really profitable.
I also think it is best to have very weak hands as a bull, and get out as soon as things look bad (can always re-enter later).
I published a new idea.