Showing a number of different things on this chart. Video format would be better for an idea like this, but here we are.
This was a chart I covered in a longer stream today on Youtube. Can check that out here. We stream daily.
This is a higher time frame look at
BTCUSD
BTCUSD
BTCUSD
From my perspective we're coming in to some stiff resistance, no doubt about it. A whole "cluster" of levels to watch out for as we approach the $10K mark.
Noted on the chart as key areas of resistance, we're looking at:
- A higher time frame 38.2% retracement sitting at $9441 - drawn using our ~$20K highs. Very important level.
- A 78.6% retracement off our Feb '18 dead cat bounce highs at $9927.
- $10K psychological resistance. Markets like to turn around big fat round numbers.
- Volume distribution painting 'value high' at $9996 - better believe higher time frame range and positions traders are looking to fire off shorts around this level.
- And we're up against old ~52 week highs at $9948. Lot of big money clearly short from these levels and it would make sense that they're looking to defend.
Overall I think it's beautiful to see such confluence of levels. At this point I'd be surprised if the market didn't trade up to $10K before confirming bearish divergence and short term topping out sometime in the mid to later part of June.
On the flip side, there's a whole cluster of support levels you should be keeping an eye on if you're interested in buying.
Noted on the chart as key areas of support, we're looking at:
- Volume distribution painting value low at $4523.
- Original market structure breakout level (neckline) at $4236.
- 61.8% to 78.6% retracement (from 2018 trough to current 2019 high) between $4367 - $5344. We define this as KRZ - key reversal zone. Subject to change if/when market moves higher.
- 200SMA at ~$4523 (obviously changes daily, but interesting to note it's sitting right in our KRZ Long area - right alongside value low, trendline support, and original market structure breakout.)
- Trendline support within KRZ @ $4367 - $5344
Again, it's nice seeing how all of these levels play in to one another. Gives us a great feel for where we'd like to get long on this thing.
INTERNALS / TECHNICALS
I'm seeing the beginnings of bearish MACD momentum divergence. Still potential, not yet confirmed. And not shown on this chart, so I won't go over that too much here. Can comment on that in a later post as that either confirms or invalidates itself.
IN SUMMARY
Cleary the market is overbought and we're coming in to shorting location. Give me confirmed bearish momentum divergence and a breakdown and I'll be ready to strap on shorts. The reality is we're just not there yet. Need to give this thing some room to breathe and let it play out.
The key here is to be patient.. don't be in a hurry.
Markets go through phases of accumulation, markup, distribution, markdown, and repeat. Looks to me like we're in the final stages of markup and we're likely to turn in to distribution around the $10K level. I.E. Where the smart money distributes their positions to the public. ;(
Still too early to tell, but if you want my opinion it's that it would be irresponsible to buy Bitcoin right now from a risk/reward standpoint. Market is parabolic and coming in to key resistance levels.. it's just a no no.
Hope this was useful. Not exactly financial advice.. just sharing what I'm seeing in the market.
Markets will be markets and they'll do any damn thing they please. Always trade your setups, not your opinions.
FREE TRADING EDUCATION
If you want to learn the basics of technical analysis, risk management, setups, and the fundamental principles of profitable trading - Check out our Level 1 course.
Giving it away for free right now (will sell for $2497) for Tradingview users to beta test over the next few weeks. Over 20 hours worth of content, brings you from the ground up and gets you analyzing charts like smart money.
Use discount code 'Tradingview'
- learn more and get a free course preview here education.truebinary.io/courses/Level1
This was a chart I covered in a longer stream today on Youtube. Can check that out here. We stream daily.
This is a higher time frame look at
BTCUSD
BTCUSD
BTCUSD
From my perspective we're coming in to some stiff resistance, no doubt about it. A whole "cluster" of levels to watch out for as we approach the $10K mark.
Noted on the chart as key areas of resistance, we're looking at:
- A higher time frame 38.2% retracement sitting at $9441 - drawn using our ~$20K highs. Very important level.
- A 78.6% retracement off our Feb '18 dead cat bounce highs at $9927.
- $10K psychological resistance. Markets like to turn around big fat round numbers.
- Volume distribution painting 'value high' at $9996 - better believe higher time frame range and positions traders are looking to fire off shorts around this level.
- And we're up against old ~52 week highs at $9948. Lot of big money clearly short from these levels and it would make sense that they're looking to defend.
Overall I think it's beautiful to see such confluence of levels. At this point I'd be surprised if the market didn't trade up to $10K before confirming bearish divergence and short term topping out sometime in the mid to later part of June.
On the flip side, there's a whole cluster of support levels you should be keeping an eye on if you're interested in buying.
Noted on the chart as key areas of support, we're looking at:
- Volume distribution painting value low at $4523.
- Original market structure breakout level (neckline) at $4236.
- 61.8% to 78.6% retracement (from 2018 trough to current 2019 high) between $4367 - $5344. We define this as KRZ - key reversal zone. Subject to change if/when market moves higher.
- 200SMA at ~$4523 (obviously changes daily, but interesting to note it's sitting right in our KRZ Long area - right alongside value low, trendline support, and original market structure breakout.)
- Trendline support within KRZ @ $4367 - $5344
Again, it's nice seeing how all of these levels play in to one another. Gives us a great feel for where we'd like to get long on this thing.
INTERNALS / TECHNICALS
I'm seeing the beginnings of bearish MACD momentum divergence. Still potential, not yet confirmed. And not shown on this chart, so I won't go over that too much here. Can comment on that in a later post as that either confirms or invalidates itself.
IN SUMMARY
Cleary the market is overbought and we're coming in to shorting location. Give me confirmed bearish momentum divergence and a breakdown and I'll be ready to strap on shorts. The reality is we're just not there yet. Need to give this thing some room to breathe and let it play out.
The key here is to be patient.. don't be in a hurry.
Markets go through phases of accumulation, markup, distribution, markdown, and repeat. Looks to me like we're in the final stages of markup and we're likely to turn in to distribution around the $10K level. I.E. Where the smart money distributes their positions to the public. ;(
Still too early to tell, but if you want my opinion it's that it would be irresponsible to buy Bitcoin right now from a risk/reward standpoint. Market is parabolic and coming in to key resistance levels.. it's just a no no.
Hope this was useful. Not exactly financial advice.. just sharing what I'm seeing in the market.
Markets will be markets and they'll do any damn thing they please. Always trade your setups, not your opinions.
FREE TRADING EDUCATION
If you want to learn the basics of technical analysis, risk management, setups, and the fundamental principles of profitable trading - Check out our Level 1 course.
Giving it away for free right now (will sell for $2497) for Tradingview users to beta test over the next few weeks. Over 20 hours worth of content, brings you from the ground up and gets you analyzing charts like smart money.
Use discount code 'Tradingview'
- learn more and get a free course preview here education.truebinary.io/courses/Level1