Okay, so you probably think the recent movement in BTC is chaotic and the recent price action is pretty volatile.
Take a step back to see the big picture.
We exited the first Wyckoff structure on May 17th.
Now we are in a new one. No exit yet. All the moves within it are just designed to get you stopped out. Each time it dives it looks like the end for BTC, and each time it rallies hard it looks like all our troubles are over.
Fact is, nothing really is happening. We're still in the structure that messes with your head.
We hit the Elliot Wave 3 in April, and we haven't seen the 4 yet (in our opinion). I say our because I work with @Mayfair_Ventures and this is our belief. We've just not seen the volume driven impulsive behaviour that characterises the start of the 5th wave, and logically we think the price needs to drop down out of the zone first. So, expect another move below 30k before we see the rally.
We are long term bulls of BTC and crypto generally, but some pain will be endured first.
This scenario has been a great window to trade for me. I started trading it following the retest of the bottom. Once that was established, evaluating risk/reward was much easier. At the moment, however, volume and volatility is drying up. The highs are establishing a lowering trend that has narrowed the risk/reward to an ok level, but not exciting. This narrowing channel of lower volume/lower volatility trading tends to favor trend follow through. I'm actually a little more bearish than your predictions of 20K because there is another volume profile that is heavy at 20k. If price starts to approach 20K those longer term holders could come into play. My regression analysis shows the historical lower end of the band for BTC at 6K. That corresponds with a 90% total correction which isnt out of the question for BTC.
Paul_Varcoe
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@BarnBuilder, Thanks for this. We're looking at Elliott so going as low as 6k would invalidate the structure. It kind of depends where you draw wave 1, but 19k and 12.5k are the levels we are looking at as minima.
Obviously we keep an open mind at all times, and nowhere does it say that the Elliott Wave can't break!