BTC Daily + 21 Week Trading Plan. Like + Follow
Hi all,
I've been getting more DM's over the past few weeks to expand my TA across the top 10-20 coins by market cap as many of you are interested in alt coins. It's nearly impossible to do quality analysis on such a frequent basis as I'm also partnering with several other outlets to publish content on their platforms. I've also gotten some requests to do videos as people learn best from watching TA vs. reading.
After a week of brainstorming I'd like to formalize my TA into specific blocks and give viewers different options that best fits your needs/expectations. Here's the plan starting Monday, February 4th as I launch my 6 month trading block. So I hope you come follow and join me for the ride.
Mondays - Market Forecast (Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP)
Tuesdays - Video upload on Trading View (10 minutes on Bitcoin TA + News + TA training topic)
Wednesday - Market Forecast (Litecoin, Tron, Stellar)
Thursday - Video upload on Trading View (10 minute price action review on major movers/shakers in cryptos + News + TA training topic)
Friday - Market Forecast recap (Review our weekly analysis, what did we do right or wrong and game plan for the following week)
Saturday - OFF
Sunday - OFF
On to Bitcoin chart -
Until Bitcoin shows more demand at these lower prices and moves back above the 50 DMA (Orange Trend Line) coupled with high volume I'm sitting on the sidelines. I'd rather buy into a confirmed trend at higher prices vs.trying to time a sideways market that doesn't know where it's headed. I still give Bitcoin a 70% chance to fall lower even though the bulls have been able to defend the 200 WMA the past couple of days. In case I'm wrong and that 30% scenario happens I'll wait to buy in at higher levels when bitcoin breaks out of the triangle. I'll go for a speculative small buy entry on a breakout of the triangle and then reinforce my positions if we break above $4,250. People will start taking profits between 4.5k to 5.3k so expect lots of volatility in this range. You can see that the 200 DMA is around 5.6k and the bears will do everything to defend this trend line. We break above that we can confirm that the bottom is in and bitcoin should now stabilize and slowly recover as accumulation by smart money engages again.
In the bear scenario I've noted three support areas that you can see were major dips back in 2017. I anticipate if Bitcoin hits these supports there will be a temporary brake on the selling pressure before the market decides to go up or down further. No one knows which support will be the absolute bottom. There has been lots of studying of past recessions and market capitulations in Bitcoin and if we follow those patterns our best educated bottom price is between $2,500 - $1185. The past 4 Bitcoin recessions the market fell between 80%-90% and Bitcoin always reached new all time highs within 12 months. So when you read JP Morgan analysts saying Bitcoin's store of value proposal has failed....they are not technically correct. Is Bitcoin volatile....Yes. Is Bitcoin still a newish technology...Yes...Is Bitcoin's future bright...Duh.
The rest of the chart should be pretty easy to follow. I try and do my TA as clean and concise as possible.
Let's see how the rest of the week unfolds. Don't get FOMO. We could see dramatic moves on the upside and downside. Remember were waiting for a trend to develop in an interesting zone that gives us the best possible odds to make money. We need to wait for that story to develop and confirmed by stochastic + RSI to buy....so wait wait wait. Don't try and day trade the range market unless you just feel like gambling and then go for it :)
Best Regards,
Bobby
-Don't hate the hair, hate the game
I've been getting more DM's over the past few weeks to expand my TA across the top 10-20 coins by market cap as many of you are interested in alt coins. It's nearly impossible to do quality analysis on such a frequent basis as I'm also partnering with several other outlets to publish content on their platforms. I've also gotten some requests to do videos as people learn best from watching TA vs. reading.
After a week of brainstorming I'd like to formalize my TA into specific blocks and give viewers different options that best fits your needs/expectations. Here's the plan starting Monday, February 4th as I launch my 6 month trading block. So I hope you come follow and join me for the ride.
Mondays - Market Forecast (Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP)
Tuesdays - Video upload on Trading View (10 minutes on Bitcoin TA + News + TA training topic)
Wednesday - Market Forecast (Litecoin, Tron, Stellar)
Thursday - Video upload on Trading View (10 minute price action review on major movers/shakers in cryptos + News + TA training topic)
Friday - Market Forecast recap (Review our weekly analysis, what did we do right or wrong and game plan for the following week)
Saturday - OFF
Sunday - OFF
On to Bitcoin chart -
Until Bitcoin shows more demand at these lower prices and moves back above the 50 DMA (Orange Trend Line) coupled with high volume I'm sitting on the sidelines. I'd rather buy into a confirmed trend at higher prices vs.trying to time a sideways market that doesn't know where it's headed. I still give Bitcoin a 70% chance to fall lower even though the bulls have been able to defend the 200 WMA the past couple of days. In case I'm wrong and that 30% scenario happens I'll wait to buy in at higher levels when bitcoin breaks out of the triangle. I'll go for a speculative small buy entry on a breakout of the triangle and then reinforce my positions if we break above $4,250. People will start taking profits between 4.5k to 5.3k so expect lots of volatility in this range. You can see that the 200 DMA is around 5.6k and the bears will do everything to defend this trend line. We break above that we can confirm that the bottom is in and bitcoin should now stabilize and slowly recover as accumulation by smart money engages again.
In the bear scenario I've noted three support areas that you can see were major dips back in 2017. I anticipate if Bitcoin hits these supports there will be a temporary brake on the selling pressure before the market decides to go up or down further. No one knows which support will be the absolute bottom. There has been lots of studying of past recessions and market capitulations in Bitcoin and if we follow those patterns our best educated bottom price is between $2,500 - $1185. The past 4 Bitcoin recessions the market fell between 80%-90% and Bitcoin always reached new all time highs within 12 months. So when you read JP Morgan analysts saying Bitcoin's store of value proposal has failed....they are not technically correct. Is Bitcoin volatile....Yes. Is Bitcoin still a newish technology...Yes...Is Bitcoin's future bright...Duh.
The rest of the chart should be pretty easy to follow. I try and do my TA as clean and concise as possible.
Let's see how the rest of the week unfolds. Don't get FOMO. We could see dramatic moves on the upside and downside. Remember were waiting for a trend to develop in an interesting zone that gives us the best possible odds to make money. We need to wait for that story to develop and confirmed by stochastic + RSI to buy....so wait wait wait. Don't try and day trade the range market unless you just feel like gambling and then go for it :)
Best Regards,
Bobby
-Don't hate the hair, hate the game
Trade active:
Hi all, BTC bounced slightly overnight Chicago time, however, it has yet to break back into the triangle pattern. The 20 EMA (pink) is pointing down signaling that the bears are still in control in the short term. I've noted an aggressive buy entry and your stop loss should be just below the 200 WMA line. Reinforcements can be added to the trade above $4,250. If you are a seller than an aggressive short entry would be placed below the 200 WMA with appropriate stop loss around $3,650 (just above the 50 DMA). You can reinforce the short order below 3k as panic selling will take over the market below this threshold.
You need to size the aggressive positions so that if you do get stopped out no more than 2% capital loss would hit your books. So do the math.
Good luck,
You need to size the aggressive positions so that if you do get stopped out no more than 2% capital loss would hit your books. So do the math.
Good luck,
Trade active:
weekly candles. we are skimming the top of that 200 WMA. This is the most important support that the bulls defend. more important than the Dec low.
Comment:
I've gotten a number of DM's about the "morning star" pattern on BTC Daily. FYI - this is not a very solid morning start pattern. If you look at the three candles I've noted in green a morning star reversal pattern is located in a downtrend so you have the first candle that is bear. The second is a bear candle and is normally a doji candle that forms the "star". In our chart it has a lower shadow wick that is pretty long. Then the third candle usually retraces 75% of the 1st candle. So in this case the 3rd candle should have gotten to at least $3,500. Not a morning start pattern, but we still have a near term bullish pattern with a buy signal on the stochastic and rsi pointing slightly up. let's see if btc has enough gas to retest the 20 day EMA (pink) and 50 day SMA (orange).