Bitcoin has broken away from its mid cycle pullback aka shakeout in its 2021 bull market run. High probability mid cycle low is established now that mid cycle breakout has occurred. 2nd phase of bull market in play. Double wave into liftoff. Cycle peak approximately 150 days from mid cycle low. Price peaks in 2021 assuming low is in.
1) I suggest you include in your modelling data for the first 13 months of BTC's price history, dating back to 18 July 2010. You can take the fractal from the BLX chart, and cross-check with non-chart data sources. It represents a 860,000% appreciation, and a wave degree in Elliott wave terms, in my view; 2) I agree that the "mid-cycle" low is in. But the main concern I would have about your model is that it doesn't appear to take into account Elliott wave theory. As you will know, Elliott wave includes guidelines on ratios between waves, so understanding where you are in the long range count is vital to future projections, while, consequently, past price action may not - if taken alone and without reference to the longer range count and wave ratios - be an accurate basis on which to project future price action. The long range Elliott wave count that I currently have suggests that BTC is still within Primary 3, which has subdivided in a series of larger 1-2 pivots. These are now behind us in price history, with BTC moving towards a series of larger 3-4 pivots, suggesting past "bear markets" (or simple wave degree corrections, which is what they are) cannot serve as a model for future larger degree corrections, and that future "bear markets" will be more shallow than past ones. Wave 2s (and especially in BTCs price history) can typically retrace 88% or more. Wave 4s typically retrace 38.2%-50% of the preceding waves 1-3, though they can extend to 61.8%. If a series of 1-2 subdivisions within Primary 3 are behind us, you can see how that price data may not accurately model future price data if a series of 3-4 corrections are ahead. Most people will be looking for a blow-off top and crash like in 2017 and 2013 from the next peak. I don't think they'll get it. Indeed, after the coming wave 4 following what people generally see as the current bull market peak (which is a wave 3 of five, in my count), I don't think BTC will drop below 100k again.
JordanLindsey
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@ianrdouglas, pre-halving data is not used for a multitude of reasons among them the immaturity of the market.
ianrdouglas
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@JordanLindsey, if I had to say which one is more determinant of price in the near term, medium term and long term, between halving events and whatever it is that Elliott wave represents, I would say the latter. The data you're not including is vital to the Elliott wave count. But nonetheless, the main point is that you cannot project forward from past wave structures if you don't know where you are in the long count, and what structures are coming next. This viewpoint will be corroborated if after the next major peak, which I have around 267 as the main target, BTC does not retrace more than 61.8%, unlike every other bear market in its price history.