While bulls and bears are battling for ground at the H4 level (see chart and recent series of analyses here: ), I thought to expand the analysis to a larger timeframe. Caveat here is that this analysis may be more promising than standing on firm grounds, as the condition rests upon the development of the H4 chart and its ability to maintain a directional bias as defined by the predictive/forecasting model - If and once this condition fails, then I would prefer to reassess the charts back at the H4 level before giving this any further consideration.
Nonetheless, the targets defined herein are based on proprietary patterns as well as forecasting methodology independent of the H4 timeframe. Therefore, an interim deterioration at the H4 level should allow these targets to remain valid, as long as the directional bias does not change at this level either. As you already know, any directional change will occur first at the smaller timeframes (M15, H4, then Daily) based on institutional whims, not retail sentiment - This is why I would remains vigilant within higher timeframe waters , where institutions lurk and machinate price action most of the time.
The targets are defined as follows:
1 - TG-1 = 711.94 - 16 JUL 2014: A moderate probability
2 - TG-2 = 762.05 - 16 JUL 2014: A mod/low probability
3 - TG-Hi = 805.35 - 16 JUL 2014.
As you may recall, the high-probability targets (green, not in the chart) contrast with lower probability targets on the basis of the chance of getting hit. The red targets stand at the furthest point of the probability spectrum, with the lowest probability of getting hit. however, IF and ONCE they do get hit, they tend to act as significant reversal levels, whereby price would tend to reverse and seek either a significant historical support (as in the BOLD GREEN offered at the bottom of the ), or simply seeking to carve out new structural levels (highs or lows), which remains unlikely in this chart (for the time being).
Please, note the faint, ghosted channel within the larger , which is likely to represent a trading activity of shorter time consideration. This is to suggest that its action upon price remains subject to the larger channel influence. For instance, the dotted median of the larger channel is likely to offer a stronger support once that smaller channel capitulates. But, in the case of an immediate price deterioration, I would expect that the confluence of both of its lower channel and the large median (at the greyed upright arrow) would act as a major supportive coincidental influence on that price (again, that is if and when price fell to that level).
H4 level remains . A validation of the predictive/forecasting analysis at this DAILY level would seek H4 continued bias support, even though an interim deterioration in price would keep the outlook open to overhead targets, as long as both the H4 and daily timeframes do not post a reversal signal per model.
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Therefore this time I published my version of another user's chart (your chart) today for everyone to see. I hope it's ok that I used your chart as basis to lay out my thinking. You can find it here:
The pathway makes very much sense visually speaking, as support seeking to the lower boundary of the bullish channel is intuitively what "needs" to be happening per trader's visual sense of the overall motion.
While the predictive/forecasting model remains bullish (algo method), price could very well turn down first, causing model to "comply" - But again, the signals are still pointing up.
Thank you for your contribution here. And again, feel free to alter the chart (best would be to leave your watermarked signature in it for ownership, but that is up to you).
Today I looked up how old the Bitstamp data is. It's 1070 days old. So I changed some moving averages to use a 1070 day period and here comes the result. The lowest resistance is currently somewhere between $565 and $580.
If the price fall below $550, then Bitcoin is doomed to fall much lower. Had I known earlier today that the strong resistance area is already above $550, then I wouldn't have used $525 to draw a pullback in my chart, but $575.
Red = Simple moving average (MA)
Blue = Weighted Moving Average (WMA)
Green = Exponential moving average (EMA)
1070 day period
The model would turn bearish probably at the level where price would break through lower structural level, such as the recent lower low at 607.09.
However, there is no bearish indication for the time being.