Interestingly, this rally resembles a lot the behavior of btc from back in 2013. The runup back then was basically from 10 to 266. This is pretty comparable to this years low at 800, to maybe 20K.
However, the timescales are now much larger than back then, because more people are involved now, so you can imagine it like a osciallting system where the mass increases. The mass are the people. More people means more mass, means more inertia.
So the oscillations slow down. Bitcoin is like a behemoth now compared to 2013, so that what took back then only two months (the rally february to april 2013), takes now a whole year.
But the principle is really exactly the same. And now that the log-resistance of the previous tops has been broken, we enter over-exponential growth territory. This means that the timeframes for a doubling of the price get shorter and shorter.
The next doubling, to approximately 20K will take place from now until early january/late december. I know it sounds crazy, but remember that a few weeks ago we were at 5600, now it is 9300 at the time of writing and climbing ever faster.
Do yourself a favor and do not try to short into this crazy uptrend, hoping that you will catch the perfect moment :) Shorters will get brutally burned. Like with bitcoin cash when people started shorting at 1000, and then it went to 2700 XD Never under-estimate over-exponential growth.
This appears to be the only rational response to an irrationally-exponential growth market. There are many people calling for people to short BTC now in spite of the fact that there are no chart indicators to indicate that this would be the time to do so -- only wildfire price increases that one would normally associate with a time to short. But that's not enough to make the case for shorting, as I've come to learn the hard way.
I've lost out on some profits due to making assumptions based on Elliott Wave hoo-hah, etc. but not paying attention to what the indicators I've set up are actually telling me. I'm sure I'll continue to miss out on some profits in the interest of periodic defensive profit-taking, but not without judicious reason to do so from the indicators I've set up to show me what actually is happening, as opposed to my preconceived notions about what "should be" happening. I do, however, think that the correction -- whenever that may be -- from this over-expo growth will be a horror to those who aren't being vigilant and just want to watch it go to the moon.
Brave new world, man -- good analysis. Thanks!
SebastianofMoon
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@tchat, Thanks for your insight and response :)
Yes, the correction will be brutal for new people who just came into crypto. Nothing goes to moon without correction, but in btc the correction comes much higher than most would think plausible.
Enslaveyourcapital
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@FlaviusTodorius67, Hi Flavius, how did you come up with a top of 20k? I'm curious.
Enslaveyourcapital
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@cataldo, You just multiplied 26,6 x 800? Is there any other reason why you suspect that this 20k might be the top?
SebastianofMoon
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@cataldo, Hi Cataldo, the top is the longterm logarithmic resistance of the rally april 2013:
Some other people, foremost the legendary masterluc, also predict a top in that range, since the longterm exponential growth trend always provides very strong supports and resistances.