CRInvestor

4hr BTC Nice bounce off the bottom

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
467 2 4
I haven't posted much on Bitcoin as much of late as I have been put to sleep waiting for my OTE             long zone bids to be filled. It has been an arduous wait but as price has moved slowly lower, the wisdom of patients has been so far accurate. Having said that, Bitcoin has enjoyed a rather nice bounce off the 419.40 level for going on the past 100 hours. So much so we are fast approaching a few significant resistance levels off the higher time frames and some aggressive short term bullish price targets. The bulls are expecting the current ab=cd harmonic pattern to play out (point D currently is 467.55) . That level is interesting because it does line up with a 38.2 Fib from the top so it seems very realistic. On the way to that level the market will have to overcome the 4hr - 200 sma (458) and a previous peak (463.53) so I certainly could see some volatility from current levels. BoT longs are working from the 445 area (25% of anticipated price objective) and stops are now at break even (BoT's trading rules since 50% of anticipated target move has occurred) but sadly I am still working my 'stink bids' down below. Considering momentum's 'toppy' look to it, I would be more then happy to exit (that long signal from 445) at break even should the market fail from current levels. My hunch is we will run into resistance and we will roll over and test these recent lows. From exactly where is of course tough to say but my hunch again is that the 38.2 level (off the top) is just too much of a magnet not to get hit. once we roll over,. do we break those lows is another question all together. Do I get my fills below $400, even more questionable considering where we are on the Weeklies.....shucks..... Since this is a V'' bottom, I am going to let them work and see if we can't get a real push into the OTE             long zone to finish off this 4hr correction.

Cheers all and I hope my simple analysis is of benefit...

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MarcelValovy
2 years ago
Good.. but how do I recognize break even ? Do you mean the Willy break even?.. I guess that's the magic of trading to recognize those, but some help would be of much value to me.
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CRInvestor PRO MarcelValovy
2 years ago
hey there,

well here I am to help.....if you have a moment pull up my BoT trading model tutorial ( https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1DY-LGVBMLx2yngfl92bgxndN9srJQF03xeGxrHFX2ng/edit#slide=id.g1d379647a_041 ) and slowly walk through the slides.
The model itself is very specific in the 'rules' of when to move stops. The above chart is admitedly very busy. To see the BoT setup more clearly take a look at this chart:
snapshot


The long and short of this trade is that the 'stop to trail' level was hit and one should have exited the 445 long with a small profit on the fail...

If you have further questions please feel free to come to one of my tutorial sessions and ask me in person. I would be more than happy to help you understand this awesome trading model. I plan to produce a YouTube video shortly to accompany this tutorial which may help in understanding....

Cheers,

Brian
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