Ignore the recent sell-off caused by the "Coronavirus liquidation effect" across all non-liquid asset classes. Bitcoin found support on the 1W MA300 (black line) and rebounded. Most likely we will be viewing this in the future as "non-technical noise" as Bitcoin continues to make Bull Cycle after Bull Cycle and new All Time Highs.
At the moment the price action on the short term is neutral within a Channel Up, waiting for a break out as addressed on the following idea:
If it stabilizes above the 1D MA1400, the we can see a sustainable uptrend as discussed on this idea:
** The 50/60% Higher High Rule ** At this point though I would like to bring forward a new interesting "Rule" (characteristic) I found on Bitcoin. I was largely inspired by the wide acceptance and popularity that my latest "Golden Ratio" idea had (see at the chart at the end of this analysis). We know that Bitcoin has a tendency to repeat cyclical characteristics again and again on each market cycle.
During the previous Bull Cycle (2015 - 2017), the price of BTCUSD was rising parabolically making Higher Highs in the process. Each High (with the exception of one) was within +50 to +60% higher than the previous one.
On the current Bully Cycle (2019 - date) we already had two Higher Highs of +50% and 60% with the most recent High being of course the $13800 June peak. If the sequence continue in similar fashion, then add at least +50% from the $13800 high and the Higher High goes roughly on the $19900 All Time High (ATH)! On top of that, if the current Cycle follows the previous one (2015 - 2017) in terms of time to fill the ATH (roughly 1135 days), then we should expect $20000 by January 2021!
Bottom line? Ignore the noise and focus on the next High! Joking aside of course this is just a projection, subject to a certain degree of error, but based on fractal analysis that usually offers useful conclusions. After all fractal analysis should not be ignored as the following analysis shows:
Do you think that this 50%/60% Rule can be accurate and we can expect $20000 on the next Higher High? Let me know in the comments section!
Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!
** BONUS MATERIAL the Golden 51%/49% Ratio as mentioned above:
Frankly I’m seeing a Wyckoff distribution phase all over this... Which means that Automatic Response was 3.1k low in 2018.... And by default Sign Of Weakness (SOW) in Phase B requires price to go BELOW 3.1k... This is NOT the bottom folks. Period. We will go lower than 3.1
TradingShot
⋅
@Zulu_Kilo, Thanks for sharing. A chart on this scenario would really help.
Zulu_Kilo
⋅
@TradingShot, here is the idea I published about it:
The SOW (sign of weakness) is ALWAYS after ST (secondary test), which the last lower high at 14k would be an ideal candidate for secondary test in Phase A under a Wyckoff Distribution phase.
The AR (automatic response) in Phase A was the low we printed in 2018 at roughly 3.1k, meaning that SOW will HAVE to be lower than 3.1k, and that is where we are headed currently.
Price must print a SOW spring BEFORE we are going to see a new high of around 30k.
What are your thoughts?
heish
⋅
@Zulu_Kilo, makes sense! lower high indicates that the low is not in yet. Smart investors want to stack up lower
Protixder
⋅
@Zulu_Kilo, Bitcoin can have now the start of new bull run!
Honalulu
⋅
after all, another silly moonboy with wishfull TA...