Hello. Low interest makes Bitcoin less and less volatile, We can see every dead cat bounce smaller and more narrow. This means that We are close to solve bigger financial solution while setting direction. In usual such big patterns end up in flames and being devaluated but I think only very bad news could damage this chart strongly. BTC position strengthens as true big holders are still hiding and slowly appearing in blockchain space. As for now We will watch current short opportunity, where price slipped very sharply, however bounced almost 10% providing great zone for analysis. Low volume suggests down direction, where forced spikes could be easly judged for counter attack. I expect returning to green support of triangle formation. Stop loss above minor resistance (yellow one). Short term explanation of short statement: On 15min chart
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nothing changed till now. I'll throw some extra work:
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Fuel is depleting in last spike's jetpack. Since it is showing no clear trend direction, simple gravity will take it down. 15min chart
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It is decline for now. Good entry point with low risk.
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Very strong fight in the middle of bear flag where We could observe champions league of whales, long-legged doji in both directions leads to massive disruption. All I would like ask You for, is "LIKE" button if You enjoyed this trip.
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Remember not to pull whole short at once!
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Important update! Bear flag could move further that's why We need to book our profit with stop above line specified on the chart below:
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As position strenghtens We need to set up overlook on the market and prepare strategy plan to keep the risk at the lowest level. This is why I always advice to pick up some profit every time You think it could bounce. My profits are optional, You could always do Your own buisness. Taking profit is subtracting risk from Your account. I present fractal from main chart and We clearly see that retesting green support is possible. 4hr chart
1 slip more and I would take profit again 15min chart
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Up: Fractal structure provides clean view on the market. This spike is just exhaustion.
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Highway to hell
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Possible scenarios for today and tomorrow
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Second retest in current trading channel, still no sign of strenght. Short position is safe.
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Here We go, Bitcoin is still loosing strenght, Stoch RSI is topping and blue line starts to hiding below orange of this indicator. Pink triangle is ascending bullish, but this is short term pattern, so it could fail there to break up having in mind that horizontal resistance sent down the price few times.
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Alright, ascending triangle broke to the upwards, I have remedium for that. Horizontal resistance as good anchor for short term forecast.
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As I mentioned, breaking through ascending pink triangle is not bullish at all, Stoch RSI just topped and is heading down to set the price at white nearest support.
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Pink ascending triangle adjusted, little divergence on Stoch RSI where it hit lower high where candles hit higher. It is not certain that it will go down because retesting of blue bear flag or yellow resistance is possible. So if You hesistate what to do, You do nothing or take some profit. There is horizontal resistance holding still. Whole overlook is more bearish, however there is very sensitive phase where market could do something very unpredictable.
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I would like to remind You that 1D chart is the most important time frame. There is blue horizontal resistance from 15 min chart displayed above and You can now understand why this line is so important. This is key level to recognize bearish 3 candle formation marked in yellow circle. The biggest selling candle sets resistance up, recently crossed, now heading underneath. This time frame opens Your mind what actually happened, Big Move is ahead, volatility will be back! 1D chart
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retest of pink line is possible, there is swing option
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retest!
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breakdown, retest of white resistance is possible
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White horizontal line as retested resistance, good place for SL 1
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Price continues retesting white line, Stoch RSI shows healthy movement, no divergences or strange effects. And You might heard or/and drew falling wedge but remember that We need to consider bigger market moves than mid term falling wedge ;)
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Feel free to share Your opinion! Post Your chart, let me know about Your progression! Don't hesitate to ask, like, follow! I provide 15min time frame stream but always look at larger time frames. That's why You are safe here and being able to develop Your own strategy!
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retests on Stoch RSI are just confirmations of weakness at specific price lines, where indicator showed low value(below overbought) and candle stopped at resistance. This time We have pretty similar situation, where possibly We slip down again.
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Casual spike, Volume is still retreating. We might come back to 8370 level but without decent interest this stock ain't breakout from yellow resistance. First stop loss has been hit, personally I took a little profit above white resistance so We could start looking for good re-entry level.
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Hello. Finally I got to keyboard so I could update this tough phase on Bitcoin! Alright. What do We got here? Volume has decreased significantly and I expect strong impulse coming soon. Of course I bet on going down because falling interest is my key while understanding the market. As I mentioned earlier there is huge possibility for healthy pullbacks,even to yellow local resistance. So how should You behave when You think it could slip right now? Well, I see there is opportunity for short entry(or re-entry) because of small risk. In case of breakthrough You could just stop it right away. If You track this idea carefully You will see my tips for You, where to take profit, where to stop and entry. Till now I adviced You to take profit at ~8100 and ~8400. This way You will learn how not to panic and flip positions too often. If You want to do solid buisness You should prepare strategy for longer term movements than my 15min. analysis. I provide to You this time frame analysis because I would like to explain to You every interesting thing that appears there. When my idea is short this means that I open short and gamble on swings keeping position opened sometimes bigger and sometimes smaller. Good luck!
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Good morning. Yellow arrow and circle show small accumulation phase, I haven't been able to point this because I was busy this time, however You received decent info warning about yellow resistance retest possibility. This time We could recognize yellow resistance presence and clear refusal. Current painting shows Stoch RSI topping higher and candle high on lower level, this is small hint suggesting downward movement. I would wait for blue horizontal support retest, where price will decide if small H&S pattern occurs. OK, now 4hr chart. Rumours about falling wedge are topping now, let's see if these are true :) Yellow channel marked at 4hr chart are set since atleast 3 points are anchored at single border of this pattern but We need a little bit more time to predict further future. 15min chart 4hr chart
Trade closed: stop reached
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Breakout from minor resistance,trade closed, stop triggered. This was quite succesful trade. Remember that it is not confirmation for trend reversal! Although market looks bullish i smell tricky play where We could enter into sideways zone for some time. I apologize for lack of chart, I am away from keyboard and can't draw anything right now. Soon You will get updated!
I really like your method, very simple and clean. Support and resistance is the only thing you need really. I use horizontal support and resistance lines but this really makes me rethink that. I haven't used the Stoch, only RSI. I'd like to learn it though. I find that volume profiles work really well for finding horizontal levels.
pinfkloyd
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@Trueglory, Thank You my friend for Your feedback. RSI is good for longer time frames because overbought and oversold levels are for stronger movements that signal bigger market moves. Stochastic indicators are perfect for intraday setups because of their logarythmic nature, more flexible and sensitive for ticks on the chart, where We could judge just 1 candle and prepare some short term forecast :) Track my ideas, especially on Bitcoin and I will show more and more methods !
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IDK if it will predict the price or not but it definitely looks beautiful!
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@hkh222, sure, accuracy and esthetic work is my goal :)
cankarako
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This is great thanks a lot for the updates. You know what you are talking about great analisis!