If we go back in time and scan the BTC charts, comparing other retests of the 200d SMA, one fractal from June/July of 2018 stands out in particular.
Not only got it rejected at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and couldn’t break the SMA, it also appears to be very similar - look what happened after that bull trap back then… the capitulation to 3K.
With this in mind, hope for the best but be prepared for the “worst”.