Bottem BTC in at 3000? Long term insight

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hello Guys,
This is the first TA that I share on Tradingview, I have been in the market for 1.5 years now. I have learned a lot since I entered the market.
I've made a comparison of the bear market in 2014 and now, I know that this is what everybody does at the moment, but it is too nice to keep it for myself. I have cloned every line, and made the white line to have the same duration and percentage drop as in 2014. I also extrapolated the 100 and 50 day moving average just a litte bit. They will cross 18 Februari.
Based on this, I think we have already hit the bottom, and are now in for range bound trading between 3000 and 4200 until July 2019. Then the bull market shall start, if the market will repeat itself. Just for fun: this means we are going to see a 300.000 USD Bitcoin in November 2021.
What do you guys think of it?
Greetings, Corné
First of all take a look at BTC's full history. Each bull and bear market was longer in time than the previous one and each bull market was shorter in % increase than the previous one. This being said we can assume:
1. the current bear market will be longer than the previous one (we estimate that in Aug 2019 it could end)
2. the next bull run, if there will be another one, will be longer in time and will have a much lower percentage increase than the previous one - if the reduction of the multiplier is the same, it could go up to 2750% from the low of this bear market (TBD) => highly unlikely for BTC to go above 70k

Take a look at our TA:

Cornevdberg NewMexCapital
@NewMexCapital, Thanks for the comment, I have seen your idea already and I party agree with you. We must not forget that BTC is becoming harder and harder to mine and in the next bullrun everyone will want to buy BTC, especially when we can use it also as a normal payment method. This means we can begin to create a prabolic trendline and not a flattening line you are suggesting. This means insane prices, but maybe we will use a microbitcoin als standard one time in the future.
+1 Reply
NewMexCapital Cornevdberg
@Cornevdberg, First of all you can’t have BTC as a normal payment method and in a parabolic trend at the same time. The last time when BTC started a parabolic rise the fees were so high that steam quit accepting BTC payments. If BTC will ever become a widely adopted payment method it will lose its volatility. I find it hard to believe that BTC will ever be used to pay for everyday things mostly because it’s complicated to use, risky, slow (very slow sometimes) and in certain conditions very expensive for micropayments. Unfortunately, Bitcoin with its current design can’t be used as a normal payment method.
Cornevdberg NewMexCapital
@NewMexCapital, Hmm yeah that are also valid arguments for your chart. I am just intrueged with the similaritis the chart has with 2014. Not a moonboy or anything, more a realist so I agree more with your idea for now.
+1 Reply
BTCUSD H4 Correction up. Checkout the idea detail's and all the update's for the complete picture.
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