Hey everyone! I've been noticing a lot of people referring back to the 2014 correction and comparing it to the 2018 correction. While the patterns are undoubtedly similar, I can't help but notice the difference in the severity of the corrective patterns. Between 2012 and 2014, the corrective patterns were 95%, 83%, and 88% respectively. In 2016-2018, they have been 37%, 38%, and the current (first real) correction of 71%. We can split hairs as to if you agree with my wave count. I merely did it to show the point that these corrective waves have been a fraction of what they were in 2012-14. Why? If everyone is convinced that we will repeat history, I have to ask what is your argument for the discrepancy in correction ratios?
Its difficult to compare these charts because I'm using a logarithmic scale. It was the only way I could get both runs on the same chart. But let's consider this: Bitcoin grew 1,242x in its first real bull run. That's insane! For fun, let's hypothesize that Bitcoin repeated those gains from is January 2015 low of $154. 1,242x gains from this point would be $191,268. No way, right? What if this latest run from 2015-2017 was not the completion of a 5 wave pattern like in 2014, but rather Wave 1 of a larger 5 wave Elliott Wave pattern? Let's also consider the ever rising concern of inflation occurring in national currencies all over the world right now. I read not long ago that Venezuela's inflation passed the 1million mark! To put this in perspective, they said that the price of goods was doubling every 2 weeks! Imagine that! The Turkish Lira has lost 60% of it's value compared to the USD since January. The USD has been fortunate in that these countries have been seeking refuge in the USD which has been temporarily propping it up. But the United States has major financial issues of its own and it could very well experience the inflationary issues other countries have been experiencing. If USD inflation were to skyrocket, $191,268 for 1 Bitcoin is a lot more feasible.
Anyway! Just some fun conjecture to start your day! Happy Thursday!
Well, your data is incomplete. You forgot to count the 2011 and the two small rallies before that. The data in fact begins in 2010, your whole count would be different.
Cryptodesperate
⋅
You said it yourself, 2011 to 2014 is a 124200% gain while 2015 to 2017 is only a 4170% gain, with such a discrepancy in profit and gain percentage during the upswing, a corresponding less drastic downturn is expected.
In its first few years, bitcoin behaved like a microcap stock, now having grown in size, it behaves more like a large cap. Maybe you should have compared some of the less popular current altcoins with the older bitcoin.
jpbrown1023
⋅
@Cryptodesperate, yes, I agree with that. Bitcoin is a larger cap asset now which would explain its slow down in growth. I'm not saying it can or cannot match its previous growth of 2011-2014, but it just may take longer to get there due to its market cap size so the time scale will be skewed. We may be looking at a 5 wave pattern that takes 10+ years to complete vs. the 3 years it took in 2011-14. The less dramatic corrections make me think of this latest run is more like a wave 1 run up and wave 2 correction rather than a 5 wave pattern followed by a massive correction. Why would you compare Bitcoin's growth to that of an alt coin? If so, what would you choose? Litecoin?