“remember the “bit coin bubble?” no one would have thought crypto would become a major currency pairing. I mean, $8000 for ONE of something? ONE bit coin? Ridiculous! Now, if someone said 8,000 for 100 million Satoshies, i’d have understood.”
People think this is a dead market after just a few months. 4 years bull run since last boom and just a few months BTC dead? 2014 was the year to call this a scam, surely the turn of 2017 legitimised it.
Step outside the small time frame. Step outside the week, the month, the year. Do you think the ‘powers to be’ saw the rise of BTC and thought “here’s a quick way to make a killing”. That they’d invest all this money in BTC, dry out the common man in less than a year and throw the whole scam out the window? No, the powers to be think and act in much larger time frames. Something like decentralised currency, A NEW CURRENCY, people, is a once in a life time opportunity. Sure, the once in a life time get rich quick days for the common man may have ended the turn of last year, because the common man thinks and behaves on a shorter time span, but the powers at the top see a once in a lifetime opportunity and try to capitalise on it for generations.
People say BTC has no inherent value. That government could not possibly let a decentralised currency compete: newsflash: government has never controlled the money. Whoever controls the value of something and owns the majority of it would not pass the buck for a quick profit. The large powers that are trying to mass BTC WANT mass adoption, but they need time to set themselves at the top. "But BTC is a scam fuelled by greed and doesn’t make sense!" Say it out loud like an idiot and it makes a whole lot of sense... just like FIAT. Unlike fiat, it has better fungibility. This is the direction currency has been taking since its creation, since its irreversible mass acceptance. Decentralised currency is the next natural phase of power. BtC is the first GLOBAL currency. THE POWERS TO BE WHO HOLD BIG STAKES IN THE FIRST GLOBAL CURRENCY WOULD NOT try to crash it because it poses a “threat”…
Only way I can explain what is being called a “dead market” or “the latest bubble” while accumulation is rising and forcing the dinosaurs in government to regulate (read as support) a new industry.
We’ll know mass adoption won’t be stopped once we saying bitcoins and start saying satoshies (or whatever we’ll call satoshies instead).
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If you look at the depth chart here and shift through the price percentages you'll see a very clear picture of small orders sell volume much higher and big orders buy volume much higher.
let's see if ADL is good at finding tops and bottoms of large and small time frames
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theory this break out is not just fake but being sampled like a spring. i had a lot more to sure but the post didnt go through and can't be bothered typing it all up again :P fun note: as the price has reversed every 3 days last month, will we see the pattern continue today? ;)
Terrific analysis. So important to look at this long term. Agreed that regulation indicates upcoming support.
MilkBread
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@bdrybay, thank you. I hope this is somewhat an interesting enough world to see a new form of currency change the pace of things
kaskassa
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hi milkbread, thank you for your post, can you explain regarding your usage of indicators you used here? accum/dist and cmf
Further, my post may be interesting to you and in line with your analysis.
MilkBread
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@kaskassa, regarding your chart: because the breakout on april 20 was not fought for with significant sell pressure I don't believe it will hold much weight as a future support. Likewise for the November support line breaking that will start a lower lows trend and we will not likely see this support become a rising resistance line.
regarding accumulation/ distribution indicator (ADL):
This indicator looks at a period's prices and its volume of trades to determine the buying and selling pressure. It becomes interesting when buying pressure (accumulation) goes up while price goes down or selling pressure (distribution) goes down while price goes up. This represents that there is a disparity between demand for a stock and the market's emotional disposition. This is how I visualise it: Let us assume 50% of the market is in the hands of many small money, and 50% of the market is in the hands of few big money. In a time of concern a lot of small money will try to get rid of their stock, but if it isn't actually a time for concern, big money will be happy to buy up that stock, keeping the price level. Now big money has accumulated more stock. Once the value of the stock is ready to be pushed, the price rises, and more small money jumps in.
regarding chaikin money flow (CMF):
I use this oscillator to get a better visual representation of the selling and buying pressure. It is an indicator of an indicator.
Read how it is calculated here:
tradingview.com/wiki/Chaikin_Money_Flow_(CMF)
kaskassa
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@MilkBread, thank you for your thoughts and explanations.
MilkBread
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@kaskassa, aight aight. I can tell you're not convinced. Check out these CMF dips well before a drop happens. bam, when those yellow rectangles fill up go short.